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where is the baht headed??


gene1944

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I agree with think1stbkk. Keep your money in USD.

 

 

 

Last year, when US interest rates plummeted, conventional wisdom said that the USD should also fall. But people thought "Yes, things are bad in the US economy--but look everywhere else" (exceptions: UK and Ireland). The ECB didn't lower rates as much as the Fed, which *should* have meant a flow of capital into Euro-denominated securities, and thus a stronger Euro--but it didn't. Go figure.

 

 

 

Now that it *appears* US rates will increase later this year, conventional wisdom says the USD should strengthen further, particularly if recoveries in other (export-driven) countries lag the US recovery.

 

 

 

I'm oversimplifying here, obviously. But, when in doubt, put your money in USD. My 2 satang.

 

 

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A recent issue of "The Economist" had an extensive article on the economic future of Thailand. I suggest you read that for a longer term outlook.

 

 

 

Basically, the economic problems of Thailand are similar to that of Japan. The banks have a lot of bad debt which they have not written off as quickly as it is done in the Western world. Part of the problem is that those in the finance community want to "save face" and not fully admit the problem.

 

 

 

I work for a Japanese bank in the US so I am familiar with this part of the problem first hand.

 

 

 

I am contemplating the same move as you and am confident that the US Dollar will be strong against the baht. It would take years for the baht to get back to it's pre-currency crisis levels where it was approximately 25B to 1 USD.

 

 

 

FYI: If you're in Thailand, you won't be able to get that issue of the Economist. Try their website.

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Db, this is higher science for me?

 

Can you please explain.

 

Do i understand well that you think we have less then 40 bath for a dollar at the end of the year. Why?

 

 

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