where is the baht headed??

[Guest]

What has Thailand's monetary and fiscal policy been during this appreciation of the currency? Or is it of no consequence since market forces govern.

 

 

 

If Thailand undertook monetary expansion would the currency depreciate? Or are the market forces stronger? What happens to the trade balance?

 

 

 

Just trying to understand how this works in Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

Post deleted by DoxyBlue

[Guest]

"In my opinion, professional investors do not ignore the "charting" because it is an indication where money has moved in or out of an investment in the past."

 

 

 

But, in the markets, what has happened in the past is *rarely* useful in predicting the future.

 

 

 

"Because 90% of equities are traded short term, if one pays attention to those indicators, their odds might significantly increase over someone who just throws the money at it. "

 

 

 

Over a *very* short time horizon, possibly. Over the long run, however, you are likely to get a market return by just throwing money at "it" (i.e. a portfolio with 20+ stocks in it). (Then again, in the long run we're all dead.)

 

 

 

I'd be curious to see the track record of someone who has used charting exclusively *over a long time* to pick securities.

 

 

[gene1944]

Thanks to all for your informative replies. I am thinking of putting $ into a Thai bank Certificate of Deposit for a retirement visa so keeping it in USD is not an option (according to Immigration and the bank).

 

I guess the bottom line is about $500 of added cost for each 1 baht drop in the dollar and it has been moving within a fairly tight range for the last month or two. I guess I will go ahead and make the move in the next few weeks. Thanks again.

[gummigut]

Retirement Visa?

 

 

 

Thus you are talking about 800,000 baht. What you can do is transfer the money in. Get your statement and transfer the money right out again.

 

 

 

Probably easier to open a $ denominated account and transfer the lump sum in. Then transfer all but 5 grand back out.

 

 

 

<<burp>>

[Guest]

Post deleted by DoxyBlue

[Guest]

Contrary to popular opinion it would seem the baht would deprecaite against the dollar when the Fed raises interest rates. Rising interest rates creates a strong doolar and hence cheaper to buy foreign goods and so it is we have a tremendous trade deficit in the Untied states. There is however much more involved like transparency or the lack of in Thailand in the business eviornment. This contributed the last time the region had problems and only compounded the problem. If we look at what the Thai governement is doing examples being the "new social order" all smoke screen related activities and generally business as usual. So when the shit hits the fan investment dollars are pulled back to the center from the periphery. ie. money goes back to US and Europe and compounds the problems in Asia. If there is not faith that there is transparency in business the currencies in the region are in less demand and therfore the value declines. As the other currencies appreciate in value against the Baht we than find out who borrowed foreign currency {business's} and now will have difficulty paying it back if at all. So it is Fiscal policies coupled to monetary policies and transparency and liquidity that ultimately determine a currencies value. If like in the US you are constatnly buying foreign good more than you are selling your own good {trade deficit} your currency will ultimately drop in value. Since in this case most other countries are worse off financially {US gets a cold and Asia gets the flue} ; but you can see that with the financial situation out of trouble for the time being little has changed and it seems to be business as usual in Asia. these governments ultimately use up their foreign reserves trying to bolster their currencies in the world currecy markets. so long term it would be more advantageous to have transparency and good business and governmental policies to encourage foreign investestment. Since this is not the case I think we could see the chance for larger currency fluctuations if countries are caught with their pants down so to speak.

[Guest]

Predominately, the buyers and sellers of currency are looking at the significant Thai debt, and knowing the local money supply figures and growth of imports have a pretty easy time figuring out the amount of baht that will be exchanged for foreign currencies during a given period.

 

 

 

Simplistically, with the dollar weakening against most currencies, not as many Thai individuals or institutions selling their baht as a hedge against their currency therefore, need more pay more dollars to get them to part with some.

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

Over the past few years, it has been my observation that the US$/Thai baht exchange rate rarely changes in isolation of other currencies. I.e. - what Thailand does as national economic policy rarely has much impact on exchange rate.

 

 

 

Maybe someone with data access and graphing ability can prove or disprove the following assertion:

 

 

 

However the Japanese yen moves in relation to the US$, the Thai baht follows. Period. Not necessarily by the exact same percentage on a day-to-day basis, but always in the same direction, and with a time lag of less than 24 hours (more like 30 seconds).

 

 

 

In effect, the incredible masses of dollars and yen ebbing and flowing out there establish the direction of the tide for everyone else in this part of the world. Movements in yen and dollars dwarf the feeble (relative) mass and momentum of currencies such as the baht.

 

 

 

So - in my book, the key to the future of the baht is to figure out the future of the yen. I understand that national deposit insurance for Japanese account-holders will expire at the end of April, and that the Japanese government is evidently resisting the call to renew this insurance program. Maybe someone who is professionally "connected" can tell us more about that. But - if that is the case, it strongly suggests to me that the Japanese government is looking ahead, and possibly preparing to "bite the bullet". Rather than try to absorb all the pain at government level, they are figuring on letting the pain spread around. They are also signaling that it would be best for savers to start spending their money (driving the economy), rather than keep it in bank savings - which will lose value if Japanese yen takes a big hit. If a scenario plays out something like this, the yen will tumble - and I suspect that the Thai baht will follow in lock-step.

 

 

 

So - my bet is that the US Dollar strengthens significantly against the baht over the next 60 days - but all because of activity in Japan. My prediction is a peak at about 47.5 baht / dollar, mid-May.

 

 

 

Hey - that's pretty ballsy of me - set a specific number, and hang a fairly specific date on it. You can tell that I'm not a professional in the financial field!!!!!! Nowhere to hide!

 

 

 

Oh- by the way - if someone does graph exchange rates over time (two years?) against dollar for both baht and yen - on the same graph - and if there is NOT a fairly close match......then my entire spiel above is less than worthlesss.

 

 

 

"Let the good times roll!"

 

B-Fly BKK

[Tycona]

DB, I would find that much more interesting than an USD analysis