Bangkok attacks planned

[kamui]

But the US intelligence doesn't seem to be in the south. Recently the first car bomb exploded and The Nation wrote that this attack was a serious upgrade from previous attacks, probably taught to Thai extremists by other non Thai Muslim extremists groups.

I think if Thai police/military had defused a car bomb in the south already Mr. T. would have made it public to praise his hard fisted tactics.

 

I don't think that it is not very difficult to drive a car bomb to BKK and place it in front of a major shopping center. The only question is, if this is on the current agenda of Muslim extremists. Maybe it's not yet, but if Mr. T. is keeping on with it's zoning plan.....

[krml]

How do you know? You think U.S. intelligence is going to let Thailand know they are operating within their borders? The only time they will make their presence known is when U.S. interests might be threatened.

 

They know something is up. I guarantee without a shadow of a doubt that U.S. intelligence is operating within Thai borders and has a good idea of who the major players are. They will only give info when they have to.

 

This is the major complaint of local law enforcement agencies in the U.S. The FBI, CIA, NSA, and all the other intelligence agencies do not give them info they need to fight terrorism in their jurisdictions. When they do it is only a little bit and given grudgingly. I would expect the same thing is happening in Thailand.

 

A car bomb is probably considered small potatoes in the grand scheme of things to them. I know to us it is a big deal but they are focusing on the major players of the terrorist groups.

 

This sucks but they apparently have there reasons. I would like nothing more than the police being informed so lives can be saved but I guess they feel they don't need to disclose everything.

[Guest]

>>>>>How do you know? You think U.S. intelligence is going to let Thailand know they are operating within their borders?<<<<

 

I think you are wrong there. Thailand does know US intel is operating within their borders. And works with them on a daily basis. It was actually a joint Thai/US task force that nailed that guy in '03. The Thai's and American's are strong allies, for quite some time. To think otherwise, is a little naive, I think. The US is not about to jeopardize a good working relationship, by pulling a bunch of covert shit behind their backs.

 

Civil unrest in the South.....Taksin's war on drug dealer's? Of course the US intel community is aware of exactly what's going on there. But it's a diplomatic tightrope walk, the same as it is for other countries. Thailand knows it has the full protection of the US, and understands the value of that. Look what surrounds them....Viet Nam, Cambodia, Burma (Myanmar), Malasia. But Thailand sits right in the middle, without the instability that has plagued all those that surround them.

 

You can bet your butt, that Thailand and the US, work very closely together. I would venture to say, *much* more closely than what you might think, or is readily publisized.

 

Thailand needs US intel, and US needs Thai intel. It's a very strong working relationship, that behoves them both, to a high degree. And has been going on for a long time. My God....look at poppie production there now, compared to a few decades ago. It's been virtually eradicated there, which was a huge concern to the US. Thai government opened their air bases to US during the viet nam war. They send troops to Iraq, to contribute. And the US is a *huge* consumer of their products.

 

>>>>>>You think U.S. intelligence is going to let Thailand know they are operating within their borders?<<<<

 

 

Somehow, I think they already know! Especially when they meet every day for joint briefing updates.

 

HT

[krml]

I guess it is only so strong. As soon as NSA found out I had relationship with a Thai they dropped my clearance sponsorship. Didn't even look into my background or hers.

 

I'm glad you helped to put that guy away.

 

I still think the U.S. is operating within their borders without the Thais knowing everything. Hell NSA can monitor all of the communications within their borders without any problems. I would bet they are doing it too.

 

If U.S. intelligence agencies can't communicate with each other I guarantee the Thais don't know everything they are doing in their country. I'm sure the Thais are also withholding info from the U.S. too. Can't give away all the trade secrets. ::

[Nervous_Dog]

I have it on good authority that the CBP - The Canadian Secret service thingy is also operating in Thailand! the CBP, Canadian Beaver Patrol, is well know in international circles, err, hang on, NOT well know, for their abilty to always catch their man, and make rgeat maple syrup, or is that the Mounties, the Gay Canadian Police unit?

 

Dog - YAWN

[SiamIAm]

"Thailand does know US intel is operating within their borders. And works with them on a daily basis. It was actually a joint Thai/US task force that nailed that guy in '03. The Thai's and American's are strong allies, for quite some time."

 

I believe that’s true, and to take it one step further, I would say US Intel OPs would not act on this extremely delicate national issue without consent from the Thai government. And then it would only be offered if they needed the help and/or asked for it.

 

The heads of these separatist organizations is public knowledge. It would seem to me the easiest way for the Thai government to deal with this is to capture if possible, or liquidate these leaders. With US help (if needed) this would seem a relatively simple task. This would be the most covert, have the highest psychological impact, and have the least direct impact on the surrounding civilian population. In the case of liquidation, “martyrdom” needs careful consideration…Thaksins current plan seems sloppy in comparison to a surgical strike, though there may be (is) backroom politics and/or unseen considerations involved which we are not privy which lead him to this course of action.

 

Once Taksins plan is felt in the south, increased violence is a forgone conclusion. Whether it will be isolated to police/military/and other governmental organizations in the south, or higher profile, more transparent targets in heavily populated tourist locations is a big question. The latter seems likely as (someone already pointed out) there have been failed attempts at this in the recent past. Keep in mind that some or the recent attacks in the south have been directed at police and military instillations with the goal of obtaining munitions, some of which have been successful.

 

(Moderator: Edit as you see fit)

[Old Hippie]

O.k. as one who has some experience playing around in secret wars (El Salvador and Nicaragua) I can tell you it is almost impossible to operate inside a border without some help from some locals on your side. Nicaragua had the contras, who we trained in El Salvador and in Nicaragua as well, we spoke Spanish, common in the USA.

 

Thai is not so common a language, and any force would almost certainly need native speakers. Also needed would be cultural experts, terrain experts/guides etc...so I seriously doubt the U.S. could operate in Thailand without some level of cooperation. For political reasons, the U.S. might make any action taken appear Thai, but who knows...?

[Steve]

Like in other places, the relationship is probably a marriage of U.S. spy technology (satelites, high tech listening devices, ability to intercept cel phone conversations, etc.) and the native country having people who can infiltrate, human intel basically.

 

Okay, that said, if/when a bomb goes off in BKk, what will happen then? Any guesses on what the government and the people in general will do or want done?

[SiamIAm]

Thai government scraps plan to cut off funds for insurgent-friendly villages - AP, March 1, 2005

The Thai government has dropped a proposal to cut off funding for southern villages considered sympathetic to Muslim insurgents, an army commander said Tuesday, following criticism that the policy would only prompt further violence in the area...

Intelligence reports showed the ongoing violence does not involve foreign elements, he said, but is linked to drug and contraband smugglers, as well as local and national politicians...

 

 

[so what is Taksins new plan? "Intelligence reports showed the ongoing violence does not involve foreign elements, he said, but is linked to drug and contraband smugglers" Drungs? Nice try, If he's trying to convince the international community, he's not doing a good job (see below)...Also note how contradictory this story (above) is compared to the other in regards to Thai insurgents receiving foreign help...]

 

 

Troubles in the South - from Asia Security Monitor No. 116, March 3, 2005, American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC

February 23: Thailand is rapidly becoming a staging ground for international terrorism. So concludes a new assessment from the Agence France Presse, which reports that foreign militants bent on exploiting local instability have penetrated southern Thailand and have begun facilitating the proliferation of sophisticated weapons in the country's troubled majority Muslim Narthiwat, Yala, and Pattani provinces. Moreover, according to the news service, the Thai government's hard-line approach toward ongoing separatist violence appears to be exacerbating the situation, and could cause localized fighting to spill into Bangkok and Hat Yai - and possibly even into neighboring Malaysia.

Regional experts are in agreement regarding the gravity of the situation. Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore says that "given the way the Thai government is handling the issue, the separatists have no choice but to link up with foreign groups." Srisomphop Jitpiromsri of Thailand's Prince of Songkhla University concurs: "These groups will be drawn to come in and recruit southern Thais - those who are poor, unemployed and have no confidence in the existing system - to join their cause."

[SiamIAm]

"I can tell you it is almost impossible to operate inside a border without some help from some locals on your side."

 

I agree, sorry if my previouse post was un-clear in that regard.