the "increasing violence" threads......

[june11]

I find it incredible that both Gadfly and "William Ginzer" (who sound amazingly alike, by the way), in their constant droning on about "inceasing violence" , do not understand the most fundamental and basic issues of probability and "rates in populations". I posted the following concept about a year ago in a thread that was dominated by the poster "figjam " who was also droning on about increasing violence, and who also didn't understand the basics of population statistics.

 

I"ll repeat it here: The number of foreigners (victims) has probably been increasing over time to bangkok and pattaya. Let's assume that's true (does anyone dispute that?).

OK, so even if the NUMBER of crimes against foreigners has increased over time (which probably is true, but i don't know for sure), the the PROBABILITY that any given foreigner will be a victim MAY VERY WELL BE UNCHANGED.

 

Look at it this way, in this very abstract example. You have a town with 10 people in 1990, and 2 crimes. IN 1995 there are now 20 people in the town and there were 4 crimes. The crime rate has been unchanged in this example. And the "probabillity" that a given person in the town will be a victim is also unchanged.

 

You need to understand the concepts of (crime) rates and probability of being a victim. The probability is roughly defined as the chance that a randomly selected person in that town will be a victim, and this is roughly equivalent to the crime rate.

 

So you can now apply these concepts to the issues in bangkok and pattaya, where there in an increase in the size of the "potential victim population" (foreigner) and hence the increased number of reported (and unreported) crimes. But this says nothing about any change in the rate (or change in the probabilility that a foreigner will be a victim). So, the bottom line is, of course you may be hearing about more crimes.....but..... etc. etc.

 

Now, I'm NOT SAYING that the crime rate (probability) has not increased. It may have or it may not have. But, when thinking about the issue, the explanation i gave above is the FIRST THING YOU NEED TO LOOK AT when trying to figure out if a place is becoming "more dangerous". Because everyone here focuses just on the NUMBER OF CRIMES (that you hear or read about), but what really counts is the number of crimes divided by the size of the potential victim population, and how that 'fraction" (rate) has changed over time, because it is that rate that defines the probabililty that a "randomly selected peron/foreigner in this case" in the population that we're talking about (whether it is a town, or an area of bagnkok or pattaya) will be a crime victim. ....and that, obviously by now, may be totally unchanged even if there is an increase in the NUMBER OF CRIMES over time.

[bust]

What you need to remember june11 is not everyone understands or is even interested in the most fundamental and basic issues of probability and rates in populations. I know I'm not. If a person wants to have a post about something they see as an issue they should be allowed to without being labelled, just because someone else has an issue with their own personal interests not being universal. Chill out.

[MaiLuk]

I see two basic factors at work that prevent figuring out if there is more violence.

 

First is that we cannot figure out the crime rate amongst foreigners in LOS because thais don't keep traxck of it. And as J11 has pointed out this means all bets are off as to figuring out the issue.

 

There is also the possibility that the media such as Pattaya Mail is simply reporting on it now but was not in days past. They may have figured out recently that crime stories sell so crime gets more coverage.

[BuffHello]

The Pattaya mail has always in my opinon printed the facts on farangs targeted crime, even in the days of hardcopy only when there was no online access. I remember 1 issue in the 90s that was literally full of stories about farangs being drugged/&dead and the rounding up of thai gangs doing the drugging .pages and pages of MickeyFinn administered crimes.

[BuffHello]

old archive story..

 

 

 

Five women and a man were arrested by Thai police in a Pattaya sting operation

after a spate of fatal and near-fatal druggings in which tourists passed

out after licking prostitutes' nipples. The gang admitted druggings in

Pattaya and Bangkok over several months in 1996, although they denied

being involved in the deaths of at least 45 tourist from drug overdoses

in Pattaya during the year.

Amorn Saiyakul, at 19 the youngest prostitute in the gang, told police

about three ways she was taught to administer the knockout drug. "The

easiest was to drop the drug in the drink. That usually worked. But if

there was no drink available I could pass it on by placing it under my

tongue and very quickly giving the man a deep kiss. If they complained,

I told them it was an aphrodisiac. The third way was to rub it on my

nipples and let the tourist suck on them. They took about 20 minutes to

pass out."

Among the gang's victims were three Austrians who slept through

Christmas after being drugged at the Thai Garden Hotel in Pattaya. One

of them claimed he was robbed of cash and gold worth £17,500. Last

October, an American tourist woke 24 hours after being drugged, also

having lost his possessions. He said the last he remembered was sucking

on a nipple.

 

Meanwhile, police in Bangkok investigated the heart-attack deaths of two

Swedes, aged 32 and 35, in a rundown hotel over the New Year. "They had

been drinking," said a policeman, "but it is beyond coincidence that two

men in their 30s should have died simultaneously of heart attacks."

[BuffHello]

"According to news reports, on November 24th, 1996

 

M. Marti Juharnee

Koshonen, 51 years old, a German national, was drugged in the

Center Hotel, Soi 12, Pattaya, and was robbed for about Baht 300,000

($13,500 approx.). Mr. Koshonen was hospitalized at the Injer

Hospital because of forced drug overdose. And, on the same day,

Mr. Mark Bregmen, 31 years old, was also drugged in the same hotel

and Mr. Maller Bodyguard, 34 years old, was drugged in Hotel I.A.

These last 2 men were overdosed with drugs that they suffered

a shock resulting in heart failures and death with saliva fuming

all over their mouths. These victims have added to the 45 deaths

since the beginning of this year and the majority of the dead men

were between 30-35 years of age.

 

News reports also informed that the gangsters who engage in drugging

male tourists have a member who is a German male with a Thai wife

by the name of "Vassana." He is reigning as a crime boss supervising

and grooming Thai girls in his bar. His gang is called "

"Roodzcher" with a bear bar as a front and using Thai girls as decoys

to lure the male tourist victims into designated rooms in order

to drug them and to rob them. If the victim is a big, lucrative

deal, then drugging will be overdone to kill the victim smoothly.

In addition, the gang is engaged in extortions of foreign tourists.

Those who do not pay protection money may not have a peaceful stay

as residents of Pattaya.

 

Lt. Police General Narongvich Thaitong, deputy chief of Thai Police

in Region 2, said that there should be a special task force to

wipe out the crimes because the present situation in Pattaya is

damaging tourism of Thailand."

[Bangkoktraveler]

BuffHello, I have to admit I find [color:"red"]"News reports also informed that the gangsters who engage in drugging

male tourists have a member who is a German male with a Thai wife

by the name of "Vassana." He is reigning as a crime boss supervising

and grooming Thai girls in his bar. [color:"black"] hard to swallow. I never thought of falangs getting Thais to fuck falangs.

 

 

[soongmak]

old archive story..

 

What archive? From what paper/magazine/website? Who wrote the story? Don't be such a lazy bugger and at least quote where you got the information from. For all I know, you could've made those stories up yourself!

[whosyourdaddy]

You cant use stats and curves from past years to explain the increase in violence. Sure you can analyse it all but it is the feeling in the air. People are changing. The city is changing. MLR will hit 9% this year, credit card companies are now putting warnings in big huge letter for people not to overspend but to use them in emergencies. Inflation is up and costs are going way up. People have been used to the good life in recent years and will steal and kill to keep it.

 

 

Well at least the tourism authority of thailand should capitalize on this situation. Maybe "assisted suicide pattaya

slogan or something. Sad Sad times!!!!!

[Guest]

I am just asking a simple question - is Thailand, and Pattaya in particular, getting more violent? Others have asked the same question.

 

Some members obviously get very antagonistic when this question is asked. (For example, accusing me of "droning on" when I simply asked a question, use all caps (the cyber equivlaent of shouting) and confusing me with another member). While I think it is curious that some here get extremely agitated when this question is simply asekd, I really don't want to get into that discussion. I have seen how nasty that discussion gets. I am just curious: is Thailand really more violent?

 

Now you raise an interesting point, but you don't need to shout when making it. Most of the posters (unless you are now going to claim that I am also those posters too) that responded to your argument disagreed or said that there are problems with your theory. My own view is that you may or may not be right, but there is no way of knowing because you cite no data and there doesn't seem to be any reliable data out there (I think someone else also said this, so I guess that means there is a bit of droning in this post - profuse apologies). It also appears that many posters (unless you now think I am Zorro, Stickman and every other poster that raised questions about violence in Thailand) are asking the same question.

 

Is it OK with you if we (or I) ask this question?