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Ford Scrap Up to $1 Billion of New Thailand Investments


Gadfly

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> DEll is outsourcing a lot of global back office

> stuff in Malaysia - announced last week

 

Hello!? Dell ALWAYS ran their Thai business COMPLETELY out of Malaysia. In fact they do very little business in Thailand other than from multinational companies unfortunate enough to have standardized on Dell equipment, which they supply from Malaysia.

 

I've been to their Thai office (YEARS ago) and it's a tiny skeleton office with a couple sales people.

 

'Buying Dell' in Thailand means having a box FedExed from Malaysia; 'Calling Dell' means their Bangkok number is rerouted to their Malaysian call center. Always was that way.

 

 

 

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Funny, a Dell rep told me they assembled Computers in a factory in Thailand, near Phuket...maybe he ment Malayasia? Call center for Thai sales staffed in Malayasia? wonder if they have the same language problems we have here, when we call into a place in India?

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There a PC repair shop that when I had a Dell PC, this guy did the repairs. He claimed that Dell authorized him and referred customers to him.

 

Always the same price, like 6,000 Baht to fix about any problem and did a good job in a few days.

 

3rd, 4th floor of Pan Tip?

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You are correct, but some listed businesses do benefit from higher rates. And this Bank of Thailand does try to protect some businesses (hint, hint - because there is not much more we should discuss about that issue here).

 

The important point here is that the Bank of Thailand kept rates up after inflation fell and other countries lowered rates. It kept rates up while the Baht continued to appreciate after the inflation risk was gone. It kept rates up even though virtually everyone in the private sector was saying they should lower rates.

 

Lowering rates is the preferred and standard way of slowing currency appreciation. Capital controls are extraordinary and market unfriendly - simply look at how the SET reacted when they imposed capital controls. The Bank of Thailand finally, and very reluctantly, only lowered rates after the capital controls debacle. What does this tell you?

 

The stuff about why they kept rates up is conjecture on my part; I admit it. But it also an irrelevant digression to the more important point I was making about why the Baht has appreciated and how badly the Bank of Thailand has bungled.

 

The fundamental problem, as I see it, is this: in Thailand, the financial regulator and the monetary authority are the same, they are both hostile to markets, they are both paternalistic (they know better than the markets what is best) and they are both nationalistic. They are the same. The guy leading the charge on changing the Foreign Business Act - a move that will require foreign businesses to sell their holdings to Thais - is the Minister of Finance. The Minister of Finance controls the Bank of Thailand, and they don't see a problem this this.

 

It would be like also giving Ben Bernanke control over the Treasury and Commerce Department. Actually, that is not fair - to Ben Bernake. It would be like giving some market-hostile version of Ben Bernanke - some guy who views markets the way Venezuela's Chavez does - control over all economic decision making functions of the government, including legislative functions pertaining to laws about business, absolute control and the final say about anything to do with the economy. This is a serious problem.

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The good Dr. Mahathir may disagree with you on this one.

 

He may indeed. But Mahathir's approval of the the government's current measures is just further evidence of how flawed those measures are. I am sure this is the last thing members of the international business community here want to hear, to wit, Dr. Mahathir approves of the current measures.

 

The markets obviously do not agree with current economic policy here, and the expressed their disapproval very clearly - the capital controls caused the SET to drop 15% in two hours (it would have dropped more if trading hadn't stopped) and the capital controls haven't affected the Baht's value at all; they have only created problems.

 

Simply looking at the record thus far, it has been on debacle after another. And the world is more sophisticated about these matters now. No one serious takes people like Dr. Mahathir seriously any more.

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No one serious takes people like Dr. Mahathir seriously any more.

 

They only take him seriously as a potential threat (read uncertainty) to a potentially promising market. Mahathir is another nationalistic screwball similar to those found here in Thailand.

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