WorldFun Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 TH, This seems to make a lot of sense. Thanks for taking the time to spell it out for the rest of us For all the people who cry foul about the value of THB how about going out & beat it instead? Like trading a bit of currency (options). E.g. if your income/wealth is in GBP/EUR then buy USD. If your in USD then buy EUR/GBP or even THB. That way by diversifying your assets no matter which direction that thb will go you'll 'win' - right - easy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTO Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 interesting TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexi Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 sounds interesting and almost too good to be true....surely it would be possible to lose doing this if the currency movements are erratic and unpredictable as they often are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 TH, nice explanation but irrelevant in some respects. The export part of the economy is the single biggest chunk of the GDP. By having such a powerful Baht they are committing economic suicide. The exporters will have to lay off vast amounts of staff causing a huge domestic economic crisis. As an aside, oil consumption will fall also, as domestic consumption plummets. When the Thai oil fields eventually come online this may also change the scenario. If what you describe is policy (is it?) then it seems very short-sighted and will compound the already precarious state of things. The Baht should fall...it is the only logical conclusion unless a lot of speculators having been playing the currency markets. With the dire predictions of 4% shrinkage, the Baht needs to be weakened considerably to make Thai exports more competitive....and for Tourists to get their usual value for money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shygye Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 The yen is strong because speculators have been buying yen to limit their loss. Maybe the same for the baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheekyboy Posted February 11, 2009 Report Share Posted February 11, 2009 i wonder if Thai FLs are suffering cash flow problems ? zero interest rates wont help them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 I'll investigate tomorrow and get back to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 Oil is never irrelevant and I hardly think a million barrels of oil a day is something you can just dismiss they way you did. To put it in perspective, that puts Thailand 16th in the world for importing oil. The price of oil heavily impact the export business and they pay for it baht. You donâ??t think an export country running a trade deficit is suicide as well? I do agree, the BOT has been playing with fire by intervening to keep it in the mid 30â??s, but they did that all of last year, and until the slowdown that started in the 4th quarter, exports were not hurt, but continued to rise. I did say I believe they will let it fall, but it will be very gradual, and if the price of oil holds below 40, they will get away with it without fuel costs rising. What Thai oil fields? Thailand has less then 300 million barrels of proven reserves (check the drop down box in the link on my previous post). That would last about a year or so. Production probably peaked last year at about 300k b/d (against 1 mill b/d consumption and rising), and is expected to continue to decline. There is indeed more out there, but it is in small pockets or deep water that make development expensive. At 40 bucks a barrel, it wonâ??t pay to go get it. Even the Gulf of Thailand natural gas, which generates over 60% of the electricity (and most of the feedstock for the Petro-chemical industry) will run out in 15-20 years. Energy is going to be big problem for Thailand in future, but that is a subject for a different thread. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faustian Posted February 12, 2009 Report Share Posted February 12, 2009 http://www.gregcroft.com/thailand.ivnu Lots of geological info. Lots of gas and oil about it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 I guess you didn't read my entire post or even your entire link: Geology Meets Economics The combination of structural and stratigraphic complexity means that individual oil or gas reservoirs are small, even in the larger fields. If you look at an oil field map of Argentina's San Jorge Basin, the two trends of oil fields that run eastward along the flanks of the basin stop at the shoreline. Conditions in the Gulf of Thailand are not as rough as in the South Atlantic, but the economics of developing these fields offshore remains a challenge. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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