Obstacles Facing Thai Reconciliation

[bust]

By SIMON ROUGHNEEN Monday, May 24, 2010

 

BANGKOKâ€â€The brutality seen on the streets of Bangkok in recent weeks will not be forgotten quickly, irrespective of the “mai pen rai (never mind)†thinking that many optimistic observers attribute to Thai culture.

 

Thai society is divided and animosity now runs deep. Redshirts and the pro-government supporters have plenty of accusations they can level at each other. Some are justifiable, but then both sides have peddled plenty of half-truths about themselves and the other side.

 

The Redshirts can depict the government and army as assassins who fired on unarmed protestors. They can say that the army supports an unelected government, which it previously helped slip into power.

 

The government and Yellowshirts can describe the Redshirts as violent protestors, as they sheltered or tolerated a violent black-clad militia that ran amok in Bangkok. They can point out that these men set fire to dozens of buildings when they failed to get their way.

 

Mutual recriminations will bolster the sharp divides and give support to hardliners on both sides, as well as radicalize ordinary folk who may have previously been closer to the middle ground.

 

The army and government will be seen as hand-in-hand doing the bidding of the Thai elites who see the Redshirts as a threat to the old way of running Thailand.

 

Redshirts will be seen as violent Jacobins who want to overthrow the old order and are willing to put women and children in the firing line to do so.

 

But there is hope. The reality that the Thai economy is open and integrated into the rest of the region means that any lurch in political instability will focus minds, as tourism revenue and investment falters. Redshirts claim they want a more equal society and are generally less well-off than their Yellowshirt rivals.

 

Thailand remains one of the world's most unequal societies, with wealth and connections commandeered by the Yellowshirt-linked ancien regime. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's self-made-man brashness was a niggly counter-point to this, and he harnessed the demographic strength of the less well-off majority in the north and northeast to win successive elections.

 

Surveys show that Thais believe a fair judicial system, open press and electoral democracy are the best tools for resolving social conflict. With this in mind, double-standards need to be addressed. If the army can crack down on a Redshirt protest then surely the government needs to ensure that the Yellowshirt leaders who sparked the airport occupations in late 2008â€â€while in oppositionâ€â€at least see their day in court. Otherwise, the Redshirts and ordinary Thais will lose trust in their political and judicial systems.

 

On the Redshirt side, Thaksin has been convicted of corruption and has seen US $1.4billion of his assets seized by the Thai courts. While the Redshirt movement has taken on a momentum of its own in recent months, and some of the arrested leaders have come to the fore, for good and bad, he remains its single iconic figure and likely will remain a source of funds. Painful as it may be for Redshirts, Thaksin should come back to Thailand and face up to the charges he has been convicted of, and serve his two-year jail term. Otherwise Yellowshirts and the current government will cling to their belief that the Redshirts are mere pawns in Thaksin's fight to get an amnesty, get his money back and get back to Thailand to run for office once more.

 

The talk of the town in Bangkok now is the burning of many business houses by the Redshirt militants, after their leaders handed themselves in. Many of these premises are owned or run by Thaksin enemies or opponents. Such revenge-action may be a foretaste of what might happen if Thaksin ever returns to Thailand and to political power.

 

An election campaign could be divisive and dangerous in the current climate, but given that the Redshirts can legitimately claim that current Prime Minister Abhisit came to power by less-than-transparent means, a free and fair election would sharpen many of the blurred and contentious lines currently animating Thai politics.

 

Abhisit's reluctance to commit to an election date now likely stems from the acknowledgmentthat his party would not win, and that a Redshirt victoryâ€â€via the Peua Thai partyâ€â€is more likely. However, Abhisit is rhetorically confident that the Redshirts have damaged their cause by occupying and destroying parts of central Bangkok. Peua Thai has not overtly condemned the red rage. So why not put this to the test in the polls and see how much support the Redshirts have after Rajaprasong?

 

The PM has other worries to contend with. His Democrat Party risks disbandment, as it faces charges of campaign finance abuses.

 

And even if the Democrat Party escapes these charges, it could lose votes to the Yellowshirt-linked New Politics Party, which takes an even-harder line on Thaksin and the Redshirts.

 

The prospect of a violent and divisive election might be reason enough for Abhisit to hold off on announcing any polling date. He can also point out that his original November 14 proposal was rejected by the Redshirts.

 

But even an election itself might not be enough, if there is not a clear commitment to honoring the result in advance, which should then be lived up to by the losers, by the army, by Redshirts and by Yellowshirts.

 

Restrictions on the media need to be lifted, as many Thais do not trust the messages from their own media, which is either partisan or circumscribed by government oversight. Abhisit's reconciliation plan seemingly will ramp up this oversight, rather than relax it.

 

Media restrictions along these lines will by themselves mean that an election campaign will not be free and fair.

 

It is no doubt a lot to ask, and it seems unlikely to pan out, but some or all of the above would pour a lot of cold water on what is already a boiling-point political and social divide in Thailand.

 

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18536&page=1

 

On a lighter note.....

 

[Julian2]

Aussie arrested over Thai protests

 

AN Australian man has been arrested in Thailand following two months of Red Shirt protests.

 

The man has been identified as as Conor David Purcell, an ex-soldier working in Bangkok as a language teacher, ABC News reported.

 

Mr Purcell, 30, was arrested under the emergency decree used to end almost the protests in Bangkok.

 

Purcell was arrested at his apartment complex in the city on Sunday.

 

Thai authorities say he incited unrest while speaking from the stage of the Red Shirt protest camp on two occasions, ABC News reported.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/aussie-arrested-over-thai-protests/story-e6frea73-1225871105387

[bust]

Does that put anyone who has an opinion at risk?

 

Next they will start rounding up journalists.

[ThaiHome]

"Thailand remains one of the world's most unequal societies"

 

when I look up income inequality for different countries Thailand is no where near the worst.

 

As a matter of fact, looking in the CIA fact book, I find that for Thailand by the Gini Index is rated 50th (43.0) in world.

 

To put that in context:

 

This is ahead of the US at 42nd (45.0 Gini Index)

the Philippines at 37th (45.8)

Malaysia at 36th (46.1)

Singapore 29th (48.1).

 

Even comparing the richest and poorest share of income, Thailand shows 1.6% for the poorest and 33.7% for the richest. The US is 2% for the poorest and 30% for the richest.

 

TH

 

 

[LizardKing]

Thanks TH, I was just going to say this. Another case of telling a lie enough times and people believe it.

[LizardKing]

Does that put anyone who has an opinion at risk?

 

Next they will start rounding up journalists.

Don't be such a drama queen. There's a huge difference between being a journo and participating in inciting an armed insurrection.

 

I certainly would be quite upset if a Thai citizen was leading a Tea Party event in the US. Not foreigner's business. Keep your opinions to yourself.

 

Do you think a Thai citizen advocating the overthrow of the Aussie government would go down well there? Of course not.

[ThaiHome]

Does that put anyone who has an opinion at risk?

 

Next they will start rounding up journalists.

 

 

Have you watched the entire video? Not exactly inflammatory as he never came out and said burn Bangkok down or anything, but I suspect the DSI is wanting to talk to just about everyone that got up on that stage and fired up the crowd.

TH

[ThaiHome]

Thanks TH, I was just going to say this. Another case of telling a lie enough times and people believe it.

 

I posted the same thing on the Irrawaddy site several hours ago, but they have yet to post it. Not sure how long their moderator review takes.

 

TH

[bust]

You two should get a room and stroke eachother's .... instead of eachother's egos

[LizardKing]

Damn it. Don't you just hate it when facts get in the way of a good story? So sorry you're miffed.

 

FWIW, I think income disparity is a bad thing, that we all should be more like Japan. But making shit up does not help anyone's cause.