Usa Thread

[Bangkoktraveler]

Willard wants to go and kick Iran butt

which is almost in contradition with the

Mormon belief that Jesus and the Devil are brothers.

[Bangkoktraveler]

Will Willard

get disfellowshipped or excommunicated from the Mormons

for allowing Paul Ryan to be his vice Presidental candidate.

 

Mormon's hate Catholics!

[kamui]

Will Willard

get disfellowshipped or excommunicated from the Mormons

for allowing Paul Ryan to be his vice Presidental candidate.

 

Mormon's hate Catholics!

 

Hey BT that's pure speculation. With Romney the Mormons will arrive at the center of power for the first time. They will do anything to support Romney.

[Flashermac]

Hey BT that's pure speculation. With Romney the Mormons will arrive at the center of power for the first time. They will do anything to support Romney.

 

Sounds like what I remember saying about Catholics when JFK was running for president.

 

 

Skewed and Unskewed Polls

 

 

In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.â€

 

This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls. Sometimes, however, one must wonder.

 

As I pointed out yesterday, the result of Romney’s “really bad week†was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talked about it recently. Asked if the polls were, in his opinion, a fair representation of the electorate, Schoen said:

 

“The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get….President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.â€

 

Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.â€

 

In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll, released September 1, they found:

 

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.

 

Other polls — including Gallup — apparently have similar assumptions (called “turnout modelsâ€) in their polls.

 

There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com, that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Romney somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

 

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls. Instead of taking their numbers over, say, Gallup, though, what it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied. Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.

 

My link

[kamui]

Sounds like what I remember saying about Catholics when JFK was running for president.

 

 

Skewed and Unskewed Polls

 

 

In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.â€

 

This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls. Sometimes, however, one must wonder.

 

As I pointed out yesterday, the result of Romney’s “really bad week†was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talked about it recently.

 

That's a right wing source. It follows a new complaint by the conservatives that not only the media are biased, but the polls as well.

 

My guess is that the voter ID law might give states like Florida to the GOP, since thousands of Latinos might not have proper IDs to vote.

[Flashermac]

There are right wing sources and left wing sources. So who can you believe?

 

If Latinos do not have proper ID, there is probably a reason for it. You have to have an ID to cash cheques in the US, to open a bank account etc etc. How can you not have some sort of ID?

 

 

 

 

[Bangkoktraveler]

Willard doesn't believe in dinasours.

 

The Mormons claim dinasours could not happen

because there were no deaths before

Adam and Eve!

[Bangkoktraveler]

Willard doesn't believe in dinasours.

 

The Mormons claim the

Sun gets its light from Kolob.

[Steve]

RealClear is the source I used because they use mulitple polling sources and then does it a composite. I prefer to look at individual poll with the highest number of samples personally.

 

RealClear seems to be not only accurate but respected. The polls from there say its Obama's election as far as we can tell. It could be closer than we all think but the 'word' is that internal polling from Republicans suggest that Romney is in deep doo doo.

[Steve]

I totally disagree with this statement. I encourage EVERYONE to vote their conscience and for who they think is the best person. Not if I vote for this guy then that guy wins. Vote for the person you believe in. Even if its Romney or whomever. It goes to show you the character of a person like Ryan, who has an Obama out mentality at all costs. I am voting for Johnson. Many of the other people voting for Johnson are Repbulicans who would have voted for Romney otherwise. I applaud them for voting for the person they deem most worthy even if it means Obama wins. I'd say the same otherwise. I want as many people to vote as possible and vote for the person they deem worthy after great consideration.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/paul-ryan-want-barack-obama-elected-then-don-212347213--politics.html

"For those of us who would have voted in the primaries for, say, Ron Paul, why should we vote for you and not, say, libertarians or Vermin Supreme and the Pony Party or something like that?" a man from the audience asked during the question and answer session.

"Do you want Barack Obama to be re-elected?" Ryan asked. "Then don't vote for Ron Paul."