spirit_of_town_hall Posted June 27, 2002 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 Thanks for that explanation, I think I'll pull out some old economic books. If the baht is mid 30's to the dollar Thailand isnt that cheap. STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tycona Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 There is some truth to what you say. I have been following the exchange rates EUR/THB and USD/THB for many months and the baht seems to follow the dollar quite a bit. It doesn't follow it 100% but quite closely. February 26th: EUR/USD: 0.868 USD/THB: 43.8 EUR/THB: 38.06 June 26th: EUR/USD: 0.9825 (+ 13.2%) USD/THB: 41.76 (- 4.7%) EUR/THB: 41.03 (+ 7.8%) (now where did the missing 0.7% go??) There is some correlation between the THB and the USD I'd say. The THB probably also moves a bit with the JPY I suppose. All in all, I find it strange that the THB is quite strong. The thai economy isn't that strong, is it? Maybe it's all the punters sending money to their BGs? If you compare the baht with the BRR (Brazilian Real) for instance... now woudn't it be nice for the THB to be falling 25% every year like the BRR seems to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tycona Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 Isn't it a coincidence that both Enron & Worldcom were audited by Arthur Andersen..?! I wonder what other NASDAQ/NYSE companies had their books cooked by Andersen...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJsushi Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 One of the reasons you are seeing the $ slide is that you have many foreiners re-expatriating thier funds in $ based investments. Th slide I think is pretty much done unless the US goes into some sort of severe recession or depression. I think people are overly jittery about the US economy and let's face it if The US hurts then everyone is going to hurt. There is no country in Asia that can support the region by buying Asian exports. Japan is so under the water right now people don't really understand how much their econmy is limping along. China the awakening giant is really reliant upon the US market buying their exports which is not really happening right now, so that giant is still snoozing. Europe has it's own problems and this is including the tangled mess of the EU. Europeans are hardly insulated from the US problems as they hold a ton of US assets. The US is still and will continue to be the largest economic growth engine out there. I doubt if you see that baht rally to 25/US. The Thai economy has way too many holes in it and they are very dependent upon exports. Don't be fooled by their rallying stockmarket off of 1997 lows We truly are moving towards an intertwined global economy and there is no safe place to hide your money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gene1944 Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 You can include Qwest in that group of Anderson clients. They are having SEC investigations now and have dropped Anderson as their auditor. I never wanted to invest in Thai markets because I did not trust their accounting. Ironic and scary, ain' it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 It may sound arrogant but its said 'when the American economy sneezes, the world catches cold'. With about 24% of the worlds GNP, its also fairly accurate. Its also the worlds biggest market and has been running a trade imbalance for a while now, buying more than it exports to certain countries. With the economy in its present doldrums, the demand for imports is diminished. I really hope it doesn't go to 25 baht to the dollar, it will ruin my budget as well. But as JJSushi said, there's not much chance of it going there. Thai economy is too fragile and has its own problems as much of Asia does. As far as Bush and his speech. I don't think it was as much politics as Bush's feelings of what is right and wrong (with a little politics also) IMO. I've read where he has been fed intelligent reports where Arafat has been strenghtening his ties to the various terrorist groups by proxy with chosen representatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 27, 2002 Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 I read somewhere that Pro Israel lobbys have donated $100m to congresspersons since 9/11. That could explain the almost 100% pro Israel vote in the House & Senate reciently. 1/3 of all US foreign aid goes to the enemy to the death of the Palestinians. Something like $6B per year, $2000. for every man woman & child in the Biblical Homeland! Bin Laudins mom is a Lebonese Palistinian, My neighbors wife is a beautiful Lebonese Palestinian, makes me think 'bout sanuk in the Promised Land! Skin, smile & body to pay for! 9/11 was about the mid east situition not the 'Western Lifestye' often cited on Fox News. Chris Mathews on CNBC seems to be the most fair 'talking head'. I truely fear the US may be going down for a questionable, at best, ally. The USS Liberty attack was not the the act of a friend but the act of an extremely defensive, desperate & agressive society. Makes me glad to be an old man with a good life in my rear view mirror! The mid east is definately affecting the economy, has me worried as hell!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spirit_of_town_hall Posted June 27, 2002 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2002 A friend of mine works for Accenture the management consulatant wing, they will be lucky to stilll have work, their clients are leaving them in droves. Saying that though a good Chartered Accountant can always find work. STH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneSoup Posted June 28, 2002 Report Share Posted June 28, 2002 Hi ! My Name's Nick Leeson, and I'm here to help.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted June 28, 2002 Report Share Posted June 28, 2002 Bangkok_Cowboy, there is still a fairly strong pro Palestinian sentiment in the country, amazingly, even after 9/11. The State department career beaurocrats are well known to be 'arabists' in policy and policy recommendations to the white house. Former Sec State Haig and others have stated such. College students are particularly pro Palestinian still. There has always been a fairly strong pro Israeli lobby but if it was so influential I don't think they would have asked for a Palestinian state. Also, the US has always pressured Israel to come to the baragaining table when it has not wanted to. Even to the point of giving up most of the West Bank which is not very popular in Israel. Yes, we give billions to Israel, but the PLA also gets tens of millions. Not the same amount as Israel but it does get a considerable sum in relation to its 'expenses' which are ambigious as there is no official accounting or publicly declared budget, as in Israel. As I stated before, whether or not I agree with him, I think Bush is led by his conscious and the facts as he understands them to be. Israel is no saint, there are numerous things I can site (spying on Ameria, military aid to South Africa during its apartheid years, obtaining military weaponry from the US and selling it to China) but on the other side the PLA haven't exactly served their cause with their tactics also. Personally, I think its a no win situation for the US. No matter what each side will not be happy with any deal and the Arab press will blame us for the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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