CTO Posted October 21, 2008 Report Share Posted October 21, 2008 Currencies - manufacturing of most areas - low cost goods will slow or even improve/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unit731 Posted October 21, 2008 Report Share Posted October 21, 2008 If I had idle money, I'd buy up some of these homes and apartment buildings in bankruptcy or default. Accepted and agreed. Land, real estate. Location is everything. Now certainly is the time if one has extra cash. But being a long time landlord, it certainly is not the piece of cake most non-landlords think it is. And my few properties have been in good locations - not inner city stuff. I have heard every excuse in the book - as to why this tenant can't pay or can't pay now or has to be late. Never mind the 'good' people who are just slobs. That being said, a single family home near water or in a retirement area is a good deal. But in the end, I wouldn't recommend anyone entering the landlord business! And if you are currently taking high blood pressure medicine - forget it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporty Posted October 22, 2008 Report Share Posted October 22, 2008 I had no idea, that he was an AIDS, patient. I was responding, to the post, as Looney Tunes, and nuttier, than a fruit cake. No apology coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samak Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 you are the Looney here! HIV positive (he got it last year or so) and AIDS patient are two different shoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drogon Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 Disgusting individual and not even able to apologize.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bibblies Posted October 24, 2008 Report Share Posted October 24, 2008 Logically, why should he apologise for your inability to see a simple "you're crazy" insult for what it is? It was obvious that was what he meant and yet a few of you couldn't see it through the mist of PC glasses. I guess Junglesoup might even, in a way, appreciate that someone ignored his HIV status when arguing with him. Sporty just went on what he said. And, to be fair, some of Junglesoup's predictions aren't looking good so far. The gold and the dollar ones, for instance... The gold one looks particularly odd at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trooper Posted October 24, 2008 Report Share Posted October 24, 2008 You wise men on board could you advice me if now it's time to transfer my travel budget for my upcoming several months Thailand tournee into dollar account? Anyone hold a chrystal ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junglesoup Posted October 26, 2008 Report Share Posted October 26, 2008 I m not saying we donâ??t have a bottom forming now in stocks, probably this week, but my point is this. This is not a new bullmarket in stocks. We are in a longterm secular bear market in stocks which started in 2000. In 200 years of capitalism stocks and commodities have always moved inversely to each other. The secular commodity bull market began around 1999-2001. In the year 2000, commodities adjusted for inflation had never been cheaper in 200 years. History shows that commodity bullmarkets last a minimum of 15 years and can last up 40 years. Large corrections in commodities are normal. I just see it as a buying opportunity. So we are only 8 years into this commodity bullmarket. The fundamentals for commodities, the supply and demand fundamentals have never been so weak. As the world starts to come out of this recession, perhaps in a year or two, commodities will go to the moon, as the fundamentals are very impaired. Stocks will continue to under perform for quite a few years I think. Historically market bottoms can take 3 years to form, the decline has just been going for 14 months. Considering we have had the biggest credit market bubble in history, I expect this to one of the worst everâ?¦yes, we probably will get a rally now, that could last until next year. The market could rally 30-40%...who knows, but I think we will get another leg down on the S+P to somewhere between 500-700. The goldilocks perma bulls will be out in force when we get the rally thinking we have began a new bull market. What I layout below does not mean that I m saying the same will happen this time, but it shows the grave danger in trying to pick bottoms in stocks. It shows the market can rally a lot before another large move down. I expect the market to move down a lot more. However, not for the reasons and similarities in price action during the Great Depression, but from a fundamental valuation point of view on the cyclically adjusted PE ration, longterm wave valuation and the dividend yield fluctuations based on 140 years of stock market data. However, that is for another post. During the great Depression the DOW fell circa 50% by mid November 1929 to around 195. Some choice quotes from the time from government, analysts and economists show that risk and downturns are always mispriced. The black swan events that they believe can never happen, usually happenâ?¦. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 "This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline." - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929 "We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years." - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." - Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street." - The Times of London, November 2, 1929 "The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929 "...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929 "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 "In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929 "Financial storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 The market rallied from November 1929, well into 1930. The market went from 195 to299, a rise of 30%. The perma bulls were out in forceâ?¦I expect to hear similar rhethoric from our Bloomberg economists during this rallyâ?¦ "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 "... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930 "... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930 "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930 "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930 From April 1930 until July 1932, the market crashed another 80% from 300 to 40. This marked the true bottom, in the midst of complete despondency and loss of hope. There are still far too many people calling a bottom. Historically, we have been very bad at calling bottoms. I will outline 3 fundamental reasons in another post why stocks at their peaks were about 50-70% over valued. 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Sporty Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 You wise men on board could you advice me if now it's time to transfer my travel budget for my upcoming several months Thailand tournee into dollar account? Anyone hold a chrystal ball? From what currency? The Bank of Thailand, is pegging the currency. The Baht is currently, overvalued, the USD, will be stronger, against it soon. Otherwise Thai exports will suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elef Posted October 27, 2008 Report Share Posted October 27, 2008 No, Thailand has growth and USA is in a recession from Q4. USD will soon go down against most currencies, probably BOT still will follow the USD however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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