Doubts-cast-on-warmest-decade

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Doubts cast on warmest decade

By PAUL GORMAN - The Press Last updated 05:00 07/01/2010

 

Doubts are being raised about the significance of new figures showing the past decade has been New Zealand's warmest on record.

 

Average national temperatures over the past decade were just a few hundredths of a degree Celsius higher than in the 1980s, the previous warmest.

 

A National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) statement yesterday reaffirmed its statements that the decade was likely to be the hottest recorded.

 

However, the new statement failed to include figures.

 

Blue Skies Weather forecaster Tony Trewinnard said it was doubtful a few hundredths of a degree was such a statistically significant amount on which to base such statements.

 

Niwa principal climate scientist James Renwick told The Press temperatures at seven key stations over the past 10 years were one-tenth of a degree above the 1971-2000 norm.

 

"The next warmest were the 1980s, about 0.07C above that normal, so it's only a few hundredths of a degree difference," he said.

 

Asked if the difference was significant, Renwick said: "Well, it is a very small amount. [but], officially, it was warmer – the long-term trend is for warming."

 

A warmer atmosphere provides more energy for weather systems, which leads to more extreme weather.

 

In winter, that increases the chances of severe snowstorms, like those being experienced in Europe, North America and parts of Asia.

 

However, Trewinnard questioned how Niwa could claim a long-term warming trend when the 2000s were only marginally warmer than the 1971-2000 norm and the 1980s, and when the 1990s were cooler than both those decades.

 

"There isn't a long-term warming trend by his [Renwick's] own numbers, nationally," he said.

 

"That's not supported by the data.

 

"If you're comfortable with saying three-hundredths of a degree is different, then that's fine, but are those claims really supported by the data?

 

"It's like a political party claiming it leads in the polls when its lead is less than the margin of error in the poll."

 

Three-hundredths of a degree difference in a decade was the same as 0.3C difference in a century, which was still 10 times less than some of the international predictions of rising temperatures, he said.

 

"Suppose, for the sake of argument, nobody had ever thought about climate change and global warming, but we just wanted to look at climate trends," Trewinnard said.

 

"If you had this data, I'm absolutely certain your conclusion would be that temperatures were much the same for the 2000s as the other decades."

 

_____________________

 

So dig holes and prepare for the apocalypse!

[Julian2]

More propaganda from big business leaders who don't want to pay for cleaning up the mess they've made of the planet.

[Guest lazyphil]

no its a collective effort. all to easy to play victim and blame 'big business' they're just our masters serving our whims.

[Hugh_Hoy]

More propaganda from big business leaders who don't want to pay for cleaning up the mess they've made of the planet.

 

Dear J2...think about this: the global warming/climate change alarmists are, in themselves, a big business. Think of the jobs funded by tax payers to conduct their flawed studies, travel, conferences, advertising, writers, researchers, and 3rd-tit countries looking for handouts. It is also an excuse to attempt to levy even more taxes on people (as though Governments need excuses). So let's not start blaming "business" for messing up our planet when there are so many, many respected scientists who consider the alarmists as wrong and who I consider just another bunch of self-serving egotists who need a purpose in life and a platform for gaining attention. (Think Al "The Bore" Gore", for instance.)

 

HH

 

[Flashermac]

A Brit "scientist" reportedly got caught editing hundreds of Wikipedia entries to delete all mentions of a 400 year warming period during the Middle Ages. Supposed to have started around 1000 AD (when the Vikings were poking around in North America).

 

It's hard to believe much of anything, when you have alleged experts trying to eliminate all references to opposing viewpoints. The pro- and anti-GW folks have become like religious fanatics. Wonder when they will start killing each other.

 

 

 

 

[unit731]

The freakin' Ice Caps are melting.

 

Ya, I know, the satellite pictures are a conspiracy. Good God. Wake up and smell the ice melting !

 

Facts, sometimes, get in the way of the truth!

[ThaiHome]

Is this the first time in the history of the Earth they have melted? Any proof that this melting is caused by mankind?

There is no doubt that the climate changes (duh), but where is the proof our CO2 emissions cause it?

 

TH

[Julian2]

The freakin' Ice Caps are melting.

 

Ya, I know, the satellite pictures are a conspiracy. Good God. Wake up and smell the ice melting !

 

Facts, sometimes, get in the way of the truth!

They're not denying the icecaps are melting, they're just saying that it's not anybody's fault... the will of Allah or something.

 

Agreed that acedamia is full of tossers, don't agree the planet is in the same pristine condition it was pre industrial age, HH.

I think it's a good idea to encourage the Indians and Chinese not to go down the same path the West did on the road to first world-hood.

There's a lot of people in the global warming camp who's credentials are impeccable and have no further laurels to gather in their field.

I've yet to see any in the opposition who aren't directly or indirectly financed by the polluters.

[doxx]

You have to be incredibly naive/stupid (the US Republican voter) or a cunning deceiving bastard (big business), not to acknowledge man-made climate change.

 

With regards to India and China (or BRIC nations), there's no excuse for their pollution: we have facts now about environmental impact that we did not have during the industrial revolution and there is no need for them to build steam boats or dig copper lines (just an example) when the know-how is there to build alternate fuel boats and to build wireless communication infrastructure. They don't need to reinvent the wheel and take the same path of pollution (or a worse path) when they can arrive directly at greener technologies.

 

 

[unit731]

I think I get it now.

 

Global Warming IS happening. The ice caps ARE melting.

 

And it's NOT pollution of big business.

 

But it IS big business that states there IS global warming - as they want to make money 'fixing' the global warming.

 

That sounds legit.