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What Happens Politically In Siam? November - December 2013


Nasiadai

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What is going on in Thailand – Bangkok – political?

 

I am just reading a short article in the “Spiegel†(the Mirror, the most important and ambitious news magazine in Germany)

that there are demonstrations against the government under Prime Minister Mrs. Yingluck Shinawatra.

 

Who is demonstrating and why?

 

 

For those readers who can read and understand German:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/thailand-demonstranten-in-bangkok-stuermen-finanzministerium-a-935426.html

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It began as a reaction to the Pheu Thai government ramming through an amnesty build that would pardon everyone for all political actions since 2004. This meant Thaksin could come home without facing his prison term for corruption. It was passed at 4.25 AM. Huge crowds promptly turned out to demand the bill be killed in the senate, which it finally was.

 

post-98-0-55439100-1385373626_thumb.jpg

 

Now the folks who simply are tired of Pheu Thai doing whatever it wants are demanding the government resign and call a new election. Thaksin is rallying his forces against the protestors.

 

What will happen? God only knows? :(

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25084013

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Security agencies estimate number of protesters at 100,000

 

 

The number of the protesters varied on estimates by several accounts, with security sources saying that it may be around 100,000 while the protest leaders put it at nearby a million, while police have not cited any number which is uncharacteristic to their standard procedure to regularly reported the figures to the media in any public gathering or political rally.

 

It is difficult for any party to reach the nearest accurate number because there are a large number of them staying in nearby areas and branch roads connected to the Ratchadamnoen Avenue.

 

The protesters behind the rally stage at the Democracy Monument spilled to Sanam Luang and to the Pin Klao Bridge. The protesters spilled to the main public ground of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration on the right side of the stage.

 

The roads on the left and right side of the main stage were also occupied, let alone the main road on the front of the stage where protesters were seen spilling to Pan Fah Bridge and Larn Luang road.

 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Security-agencies-estimate-number-of-protesters-at-30220468.html

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German photojournalist attacked

 

 

The Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand has voiced concern following an attack on a German photojournalist on Monday, allegedly after he was identified as a "redshirt" at a rally.

 

Nick Nostitz, a freelance cameraman who has written two books about political turbulence in Thailand in recent years, was allegedly punched after being singled out by a speaker.

 

The FCCT issued a statement Monday that said: "An accredited foreign journalist was today assaulted by anti-government protesters while doing his job covering the ongoing protests.

 

"Details are not clear but initial reports say a speaker from the stage singled him out, triggering the assault. The incident was also featured on Blue Sky TV, and Internet comments continued to target the journalist.

 

"The FCCT deplores this in the strongest possible terms, and calls upon protest leaders to unequivocally and publicly state that the rights of journalists, foreign or Thai, should be respected."

 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/German-photojournalist-attacked-30220574.html

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Sorry to hear about Nick, he does usually manage to keep on with both sides.

 

A hard core "Yellow" I was with last week was telling me about the inability to send photo's from the demos, which used to happen when not so many people had smart phones, a great way to get information to newspapers etc, but he actually knew and acknowledged it wasn't a government plot, just that with so many people ALL taking photo's and sending to friends the networks can't cope,

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It is difficult for any party to reach the nearest accurate number because there are a large number of them staying in nearby areas and branch roads connected to the Ratchadamnoen Avenue.

 

 

 

One metric for estimating crowds could be the amount of rubbish.

 

After Sunday 80 Tonnes of rubbish was collected this morning where as after a "Normal Rally" it is usually 20-30 Tonnes.

 

So either the Anti-Government protestors are 2-3 times messier on this occasion, or the most likely scenario is that there are 2-3 times more people protesting.

 

I actually believe that the authorities do have a rough idea of the number of protestors but are scared to publish the actual figures.

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/381634/protest-rubbish-collection-more-than-doubles-after-sunday-rally

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Ratchadamnoen is a few kilometers long and 12 lanes wide. Roughly 4 kilometers I believe by 50 meters. Internationally accepted standard for protests is 2-3 people per square meter. so 4000*50 = 200,000 sq meters * 2 people is 400,000 people! Plus many of the streets and the bridge from Pinklao were full as well. So I would say 500,000 probably. But lets be conservative and say 300,000 ...................... and that is a HELL of a lot people!

 

W

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W.

 

My maths is slightly different than yours but the result is similar.

 

Using European Standards the Average Width of a lane is 3.65 Meters therefore 4000M x 43.8 = 175,200 SQM. But on Average the Thai person is Smaller than their Western counterpart so we could look at the higher end of the 2-3 people / SQM even at 2.75 that gives us 481,800 so an estimate Half a Million is not too far fetched.

 

As previously stated I do believe that the Authorities do know the real turnout +/- 10%, as demonstrated by the high volume of rubbish being collected, but are scared to publish the truth since they don't want the populous to know how the true numbers.

 

Dec 5th there is a Birthday, I think it will be over before then.

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