Is China A 'Paper' Tiger?

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

The Soviet Union was a nation a lot longer and imploded. 50 years is nothing.

Yes the Soviet empire did last a little more than 70 years. As I already pointed out I think their leadership was much less adaptable than the Chinese.

Blocking kiddie porn is one thing. Blocking sites where they offer differing political viewpoints and news is a whole different matter.

Technically it's the same thing. A filter that can be used block one thing can also be used to block others. As a principle it means that the government sees itself fit to decide what kind of information people are allowed to have access to. Compare to the legislation against teaching Darwin's evolution theory in school.

As for the Soviet 'rule of law'. So, the citizens there have due process? A senator hits my car I am injured I have recourse. I'd wager any amount the same can't be said if a member of the politburo hit a Russian.

As I don't know who or what you are I don't know how much chance you would stand against a US senator. I do know that Mike Tyson got 6 years for rape and the Kennedy bloke (forget his name) was aquitted. The law in most countries I'm aware of is not without flaws.

There are some things that are just human nature. Man will always kill man, etc. Give France, Germany, England or Sweden...America's present military, economic and political power and I seriously doubt they will be much better than 'a hypocritical humane democracy'.

That was part of the point I was trying to stress. They may all have acted alike but they didn't all pretend to be fighting for the best of those they were fighting against or constantly rant about various gods. Well to be fair I suppose they often did rant about some god. Perhaps starting with the crusades.

 

As for China, anything can happen. I think they'll change because they'll have to. Grudgingly and it will a push to change externally so that they are accepted by the west and thought of as 'modern' and internally by the growing, educated middle class who will have picked up foreign notions like 'freedom' and 'democracy'.

As I already said, they are changing all the time. China of today has very little to do with China under Mao. I too belive that it will be a well off middle class that will lead China towards a more western style democracy. I think this is what happened in Thailand the last 20 - 30 years. People that spend all their time trying to put food on the table (or floor ) don't have time for such issues.

No one would have envisioned Iran having such a large percentage of their populace actually WANTING western style government and having an affinity for the U.S. of all places. Its a strange world and things change.

Where on earth have you gotten this from. They recently had an election and a vast majority voted for one of the candidates that was farthest from the west and definitely not a friend of the US. Just after the fall of the shah I spoke to a Swedish bloke that had worked extensively in Iran. He said that the Islamic government is what most people wanted. We just didn't hear much of them as they would be arrested if they spoke out in Iran.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[gobbledonk]

I'll make a prediction - those of us who underestimate China do so at their own peril. I'm not talking militarily, although that is an undeniable element - it all comes down to dollars and cents in the end analysis.

 

China will be a force to be reckoned with for as long as it can offer so much cheap labour, regardless of its internal political machinations. A lot of the hype that Western governments have swallowed re 'access to a limitless market of consumers' is BS, but that hasnt stopped boatloads of Chinese goods flooding into our respective countries.

[Steve]

1. Just like the Roman empire who were living off their reputation the last few hundred years of their existance so were the soviets. They didn't have an all out war since WW2 and when they did have it, they lost it (Afghanistan). There were reports of breadlines in the USSR going back long before they imploded. 70 years. More like 35 or 40 and the rest just trying to survive economically. Even taking into account the full 70 its nothing for a superpower. The Romans, British and Spanish had empires lasting hundreds of years. 70 is a blip. The USSR's 70 years actually supports my assertion about those types of governments not succeeding long term. America started its ascesion before the USSR and is outlasting it, so the evidence of the types of governments that can stand the test of time still holds true. The Romans had an emporer but also the rule of law and elected senators. England had a king but a powerful elected Parliament.

 

2. The Chinese can filter all they want. Physical news (newspapers, videos, etc.) can't be kept out all the time. More will be traveling back and forth to Hong Kong where that is readily available. Its a matter of time. No country can stop the information superhighway from 'invading' their country. They can't do it now. People have e mail and they do talk to their friends and relatives all over the country.

 

3. Of course laws are with out flaws. Name any country now that doesn't have some flaws, even minor ones in their country? Try prosecuting a celebrity in California. But lets be intellectually honest. Kennedy getting off and the Soviet judicial system are not even comparable.

 

4. I got my Iran information from various news sources, Persian friends, etc. They have had protests there against the lack of reforms. The populace is one of the most pro western, reform-minded populations in the region.

 

5. We do agree on the potential of China for change. You give credit to China for being a different country from when Mao ran it but not to America from being a different country today from when they had slavery and state sponsored segregationist laws not more than 40 years ago. You seem to take a 'America is evil, no middle ground' stand but seem somewhat apologetic to any thing China does or is doing. Maybe America isn't as great as its citizens think it is (I'll certainly agree to that) but I also don't think its as evil and warped to the extent you assert it is as well.

 

As for the Chinese economy in its new state, its in its infancy. Lets see how it handles a serious downturn. It may infact implode as the editorial hints. I am hoping that changes to China occur BEFORE it gets too much power so it will use it wisely. If Hong Kong is any indication, I'm not looking forward to their ascension as the next great super power.

[gobbledonk]

I am hoping that changes to China occur BEFORE it gets too much power so it will use it wisely. If Hong Kong is any indication, I'm not looking forward to their ascension as the next great super power.

 

Yes, they could become a real problem on the world stage, using their fiscal and military might to intimidate others. Luckily, previous superpowers havent taken that approach ...

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

A few years ago I worked as a consultant software engineer at various Ericsso R&D plants. The genaral opinion was then that China would be the most important telecom market somwhere around 2010. Due to the downturn in the IT/telecom sector this may come a few years later but it will come. So not all have underetimated China.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

They didn't have an all out war since WW2 and when they did have it, they lost it (Afghanistan).

Yes, this is true. They did the same mistake as the US did in Vietnam. They could have learned by other's mistakes but failed to do so.

Even taking into account the full 70 its nothing for a superpower. The Romans, British and Spanish had empires lasting hundreds of years. 70 is a blip. The USSR's 70 years actually supports my assertion about those types of governments not succeeding long term.

You are overlooking tha fact that the USSR was merely an extension of imperial Russia. A country that about as old as Sweden i.d. 700-900 years. Please note that I am not defending the commies. In difference to you I grew up in the shadow of the Soviet. They could reach Sweden in less than 2 hours by air and in about 10 hours with hover crafts. As a sidenote China is merely an extension of imperial China which is several thounds of years old.

The Chinese can filter all they want. Physical news (newspapers, videos, etc.) can't be kept out all the time. More will be traveling back and forth to Hong Kong where that is readily available. Its a matter of time. No country can stop the information superhighway from 'invading' their country. They can't do it now. People have e mail and they do talk to their friends and relatives all over the country.

That was basically my point in a previous post that today's information can't be censored. Also bear in mind that a vast majority of the Cinese people are illeterate pesants who have never heard od email or the internet. As for going to HK I think it's easier for me to get into HK than a Chinese citizen as they have to have pemission to go there.

Of course laws are with out flaws. Name any country now that doesn't have some flaws, even minor ones in their country? Try prosecuting a celebrity in California. But lets be intellectually honest. Kennedy getting off and the Soviet judicial system are not even comparable.

My comments were about the criminal penal code which were quite well developed in the Soviet. Legislation against political dissidents are another thing. Alexander Solsjnitsin was even given the Nobel to tweak the noses of the Soviet leaders. Again I'm not defending the persecution of political dissidents. However the McCathy era was not all that different or perhaps closer to our time the prisoners at the Guantanamo base.

I got my Iran information from various news sources, Persian friends, etc. They have had protests there against the lack of reforms. The populace is one of the most pro western, reform-minded populations in the region.

I still dont understand where you have gotten your information. You don't seem to be the kind of bloke that would belive anything you hear on Fox news. We have a lot of Iranian people here in Sweden that have come her as political refugees. They started to come during the Shaw's regime and continued to come as refugees form the ayatohlas. Try to understand that these people come from the intellecual upper class which is a small minority in Iran. Their opinions is everything but biased.

You seem to take a 'America is evil, no middle ground' stand but seem somewhat apologetic to any thing China does or is doing. Maybe America isn't as great as its citizens think it is (I'll certainly agree to that) but I also don't think its as evil and warped to the extent you assert it is as well.

You have again misinterpreted my posts. I don't se your country as eveil. I do however see the Bush administration as very bad and what they do affects the whole world but we are not allowed to vote against them. Good things have come from your country such as Harley Davidson and rock'n roll but please stop exporting Budviesser and Miller's draught.

As for the Chinese economy in its new state, its in its infancy.

Again China is several thousand years old, Much older than any Eourpean country. A violent change of government does not change the age of the country.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[Steve]

I'd guess you know more about Fox News than I do. I rarely watch it and never rely on it for my news. Its interesting that anytime an American says anything that they may agree with whatever they may say they are an ardent follower of Fox. Like any news source they can get some things right as the Guardian in London can. If they agree with my views on some things it doesn't make it automatically wrong. I consider you a very independent thinker who takes in the facts as best he can. Its possible for me to do the same and come to a different conclusion than you do.

 

As for Iran, its my guess that you know no more than I do about how their inner workings. I am not an expert. If you have some documented and reliable proof otherwise to my assertion, I'll gladly accept that what I've heard and read (I'll look for documentation as well) was wrong or not the real truth.

 

Using the USSR is an extension argument is also intellecutually dishonest. The USA could be an extension of England or the EU is an extension of France and Germany. Russia had an empire under a Czar, it was imperialist and a monarchy, the USSR is a totally different animal. As far as their criminal code, even tribes in New Guinea and in the amazon have a strict code of conduct against stealing, etc. Every society has that. But the USSR had no transparency in big business because they were all state owned enterprises. Could a tourist expect to enjoy this advanced developed legal code? There are ample cases of them accusing tourists taking a pic as a spy and denied due process and unless it becomes a cause celeb by his/her native country the person can languish in prison. The USSR's legal code was essentially whatever the whim of the ruling politburo was. Taking folks off the street for whatever reason and holding them for any thing isn't a code of law. When it happens in the U.S., England, Germany or France its the exception and that's why mistreating prisoners in Guantanamo makes the news. It was contrary to what America does. It was the norm in the USSR. Its the norm in Zimbabwe and North Korea...and China that's why it doesn't make front page news.

 

We do agree on information and China though. I'm a pragmatist and no flag waving, America does nothing wrong yank. In fact I would say that the pervailing feeling in the area that I grew up was that America is a racist, evil country. One then travels and reads and makes decisions for themselves. It has its faults, lord does it..haha..but I've traveled and read enough to know that so does everywhere else.

 

Changes are happening slower than I want in China but they know to be accepted by the west they have to change some things.

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

What I know about Iran is what I have read/seen in various media, not only Swedish, and heard from Iranians living in Sweden. You appear to be both intelligent and educated so stop up and think about it. One of the most popular leader they have had namely Mossadeq was forced out of office by the west. He was then replaced by one of the more brutal dictators the world has seen, the shah. Even the ill educated masses must have understood that it was their oil the west was after. When the muslim priests took over after the fall of the shah a majority of the people supported them. The presidential election I mentioned earlier was according to our standards by no means free and and democratic. Still they had a number of candidates to choose from. They chose the least progressive and most fanatic muslim.

Using the USSR is an extension argument is also intellecutually dishonest.

Absolutely not. Russia has existed as a cultural and ethnic are for many hundred years. If Sweden is invaded, our royal family killed and a puppet government installed it would still be Sweden. Bringing the EU into this is ridiculous. The EU is a union of free and sovereign states, not a country.

 

But the USSR had no transparency in big business because they were all state owned enterprises.

Aeroflot was the by far largest international airline.

As the USSR was a popular tourist destination among some young Swedes I know that tourists were very well taken care of.

The USSR's legal code was essentially whatever the whim of the ruling politburo was. Taking folks off the street for whatever reason and holding them for any thing isn't a code of law. When it happens in the U.S., England, Germany or France its the exception and that's why mistreating prisoners in Guantanamo makes the news. It was contrary to what America does.

Again you are failing to make a separation between criminal and political laws. Anyway I find your comment interesting. A friend of a friend who has done significant time in a Texas prison comment Abu Grahib like this - "What is all commotion about. That is exactly how they treat prisoners in American prisons."

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[Steve]

Bush's rhetoric ruined the chances for the progressive candidate in Iran. Before this election, it was the progressive candidates and people of power that the populace were clamoring for. They had protests about it.

 

There is no evidence that Aeroflot was successful financially. Being the biggest means nothing. GM was (maybe still is) the world's biggest car maker and was losing hundreds of millions of dollars not too long ago. The implosion of the USSR would suggest that it was not successful. That few, if any of their state owned enterprises ever was. There were breadlines going back for decades in Russia. As for the tourists, every so often they'd detain someone. Swedish tourists got off lucky by all accounts then. There were a few American and other tourists that weren't so lucky.

 

The USSR's political and criminal law were at the whim of the politburo. I make no distinction. They may have codified it, even posted for everyone to see at the Kremlin as far as I care but in practice they did whatever they wanted. There are many powerful politicians here, in England as well as other western countries, that were undone because of something they did unethically, immorally, illegally, etc. and a lot of times involving the average person. When was the last time you heard of a Soviet premier of a member of the politburo stepping down or forced to resign over such things? It was ALWAYS political. The person who lost his seat or power disagreed politically or was suspected or was seen as garnering too much power with whoever had the power at the time. Same applies to China.

 

As far as U.S. prisons, no argument they are brutal. The brutality is typically from other prisoners and that is in state prisons for the most part. You follow their rules and the guards, by and large, leave you alone. Serve your time quietly and you are left alone for the most part. Its your fellow inmates you have to fear the most. You need protecting from them if you're in jail. I know a number of people that are in jail and were in jail, visited them, more than a few from my area. Sadly, too many in fact. I hear the same stories. I don't know the experiences of your friend of a friend. A lot of prisoners are bitter about going to jail for crimes that they actually did commit.

 

The true mark of great nations that have ruled for a while is that they have rules of law that protect the poor, weak and innocent. China doesn't have such mechanisms. The west does. It may not work 100% of the time but they have sacrosanct rules: Roman Law. English Common Law. Bill of Rights, etc. that does this. Where is China's?

 

I think your problem is with Bush and not America. Did you like Clinton? Or Carter? If so, then its the current administration and that's okay, I understand the reservations about it if not anger. However, be secure in that America ALWAYS changes political ideology every 4-8 years. After Nixon and Ford, you got Carter, After Reagan and Bush you got 8 years of Clinton. No one can say all the aforementioned had the same ideology.

 

As for China, we tend to agree on a few things concerning their need to change and information getting to its citizens.

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

Bush's rhetoric ruined the chances for the progressive candidate in Iran. Before this election, it was the progressive candidates and people of power that the populace were clamoring for. They had protests about it.

I suppose that this could be a part of the truth. However my take on the media coverage is that people in Iran were tired of corruption and mismanagement.

There is no evidence that Aeroflot was successful financially.

I never said they were, only that the were big. On the other hand it was one of their objectives to bring in much needed western currency. In this respect they were not entirely unsuccessful.

The implosion of the USSR would suggest that it was not successful.

It was in it's final years anything but successful. It was probably one of the most rigid and unadaptable governments the world has seen.

As for the tourists, every so often they'd detain someone. Swedish tourists got off lucky by all accounts then. There were a few American and other tourists that weren't so lucky.

Has it occurred to you that some tourists might not by what they were posing as. Anyway America was the main enemy so Americans may have received a less benevolent treatment as would their allies.

The USSR's political and criminal law were at the whim of the politburo.

Again I think you fail to understand the politicians. They didn't give a flying fuck about ordinary muggers, bank robbers and rapists. Their only concern were people that expressed unacceptable opinions. The ordinary trash was a case for the criminal penal system.

When was the last time you heard of a Soviet premier of a member of the politburo stepping down or forced to resign over such things? It was ALWAYS political. The person who lost his seat or power disagreed politically or was suspected or was seen as garnering too much power with whoever had the power at the time. Same applies to China.

It happens all the time it is the survival of the fittest. Both Kosygin and Podgorny were forced away from power. Do you remember Andrew Young. He was rendered obsolete for believing that Palestinians had human rights too. Have you heard of an American president being kicked out of office for taking the country to war based on a bunch of blatant lies.

A lot of prisoners are bitter about going to jail for crimes that they actually did commit.

And some are probably bitter about doing time for crimes they didn't commit.

he true mark of great nations that have ruled for a while is that they have rules of law that protect the poor, weak and innocent. China doesn't have such mechanisms. The west does. It may not work 100% of the time but they have sacrosanct rules: Roman Law. English Common Law. Bill of Rights, etc. that does this. Where is China's?

I don't know much about Chinese law but it must be there as no functioning nation can exist without a legal system. The can and are abused all over the world but they still exist. You should read a little early English imperial history. The primary objective of the laws was not to protect the poor and downtrodden. The same would apply to Sweden and most other European countries.

I think your problem is with Bush and not America.

You're absolutely right there. I did like Clinton and fail to see how his personal sex life was of any concern to me or anyone else out side his family. The best president during my life time in my opinion was LBJ. He took a lot of shit for a war that was started by Kennedy and was seldom given credit for what he did for America. As for Bush and the other religious nutters I lack words to express what I think of him. If he had been slightly more intelligent he would have been in the same league as Stalin and Hitler.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK