Is China A 'Paper' Tiger?

[Old Hippie]

O.k. but, a few key points here...Can China feed it's population and survive if it didn't sell all its products to the rest of the world. Should it be cut off do to war with any of the super powers/super consumers...? If China were to get really aggressive abroad, could it control it's own pro democracy people at home, should they rise up again? As One poster pointed out, China had it's problems in Vietnam, they took heavy casualties, and yet didn't quite get control did they? So how would they fair against the rest of the world in a hostile situation? Their best commodity is abundant/expendable life, until the people get fed up with it...

 

Frankly, the only thing that keeps their economy or any economy going is a desire to buy that economy's products. We in the west love cheap stuff, especially cheap labor, it is our curse. We love it no matter what the final/eventual cost to us really is. Sooner or later, China will feel the effects of their own success.

[drogon]

@Old Hippie

I agree with you, look at one of my previous post.

Though about Vietnam I have not exactly the same view, in vietnam as during border incidents with former ussr the chinese fought for limited objectives (whatever their real intentions were)

so they engaged limited forces (for their army).

Anyway, I will be in Thailande next week so I will forget chinese for a moment

=> I am more interested in the study of thailand treasures, if you are in BKK in July let's discuss China or whatever you want with some drinks

"in vino veritas"

 

[Coss]

ALHOLK said:

Hi!

 

If you read my posts carefully you will see that I was in no way flaming.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

 

Sorry, I just clicked the reply button, wasn't intending to aim this at you, just a general opinion.

 

Cheers

 

Coss

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

No that was coss.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

Can China feed it's population and survive if it didn't sell all its products to the rest of the world.

 

One benefit of a dictator government is that it doesn't matter if ordinary people starve as long as the police and soldiers are well fed, e.g. North Korea. Of course this is a benefit to the leadership only.

 

Sooner or later, China will feel the effects of their own success.

 

Of course they will as did Japan.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[Steve]

I can't see China lasting long term with their present form of government. Its not only totalitarian its corrupt. No real 'rule of law' like in the west.

China has been the dominant force in Asia for a while now. Militarily at least. After Japan fell, there was no one else. There is an old saying that you should 'never get into a land war in China'. That still holds true and the only change is now they will be able to project their power. They will have missiles that can reach the U.S. in a couple years if not already. Same with Japan who they have a score to settle with.

The internet and interaction with the west will change the middle class. Their brightest students are going to universities in the west and that exposure will give them ideas of freedom and democracy that they will bring back to China.

As I said before, I have no problem with China becoming the next world superpower replacing the USA (our reign will end at some point) IF they are a true republic with the rule of law, democratic instiutions in place and try to become good world citizens. As it stands now, IMHO, if they are the next great superpower having the present government in place, the world is much worse off.

America can be a better world citizen. There will ALWAYS be some abuses in ANY nation that rules its era. NO nation has been immuned to some abuse. Some greater, some not as much. Go all the way back to imperial Rome, the British, Spanish and Holy Roman Empire in Germany as well as the Soviet Union in the modern era and you'll find more than a fair number of abuses when those powers were the dominant force. Its not an excuse, just a fact. Its human nature. I've always thought America should be judged against nations in similar positions than compared to say Aruba or Sweden. Give those nations the wealth, miiltary and the economy and you'll see them use it in ways you wouldn't have thought of otherwise. Using the aforementioned criteria, I think America comes out pretty good in comparison. For 50 years it was primarily the U.S. and the old Soviet Union and I doubt there are many who would say the Soviet Union were the better in terms of their use of power.

 

China has to change to maintain its economic power. Someone commented that all you have to do is keep the military fed. Its a temporary fix. It doesn't last. The wealth has to spread. Rome and England had empires that lasted longer than most because there were opportunities, limited as they may be, to the commoner. Thousands of poor Englishmen could make their fortune in the scattered colonies around the world. A Roman could get wealthy off spoils as a soldier or start a small shop or learn a trade. There are also 2 factors that all the great nations/empires have had. 1) they had a civil war that after it ended set the course of where the country was headed and 2) they were built, initially, on the backs of slave and/or cheap labor.

 

I digress though, China has tried to curb internet usage but its exploding and they won't be able to control it much longer the 'truth' or information from the rest of the world is their greatest enemy.

[ALHOLK]

Hi!

 

I can't see China lasting long term with their present form of government.

 

They have already lasted for more than 50 years.

 

Its not only totalitarian its corrupt. No real 'rule of law' like in the west.

Of course it is. However it is a common misconception that totalitarian governments do not have a rule of law. The western media always focuses on political crimes but the fact is that China and the former Soviet union had laws that were quite in par with any western country. The fact is the former Soviet Union had criminal laws that were very similar to their Swedish counterparts. In my opinion (biased of course) these laws were much more humane than the laws in your country. The laws that are criticized are nearly always political laws or indeed the total lack of laws as in the political trials in Moscow in the sixties.

As for corruption I agree again. A closed dictatorship is the mother of corruption, don't you agree. And again petty corruption is common here. I would be surprised if it isn't the same in your country.

The internet and interaction with the west will change the middle class.

 

Yes it will but it will take time. The western governments are starting out on this particular lane of censorship. In Sweden it has started with filters that are supposed stop people from accessing child porn sites. This may sound acceptable to a majority of the Swedish people as very few will support child porn. The next step is to block access to sites offering prostitutes. This to will probably gain public acceptance as there are to many PC wankers in this country. What will be the next step do you think? My guess is that it will be to block sites with politically incorrect material and in the end sites who oppose the government. All this is of course bullshit as people who are internet savvy will find what they want anyway. The same thing will happen in China of course. It may not be widely understood that a significant part of the Chinese professionals are well in par with us Europeans and the Americans. There is a lot of talk about the Indians (not the red ones ) and they often speak a good English. However there must be a reason why I have worked with a lot of Chinese people in various Ericsson plants but have never seen an Indian.

As it stands now, IMHO, if they are the next great superpower having the present government in place, the world is much worse off.

I'm not sure of this. What is better, a country that pretends to be a humane democracy or a country that isn't hypocritical about it.

America can be a better world citizen.

It's easy to agree with that.

There will ALWAYS be some abuses in ANY nation that rules its era. NO nation has been immuned to some abuse.

You should read some Swedish history. About 300 to 400 years ago my country was one of the major war mongers in northern Euorope. This of course we were never taught in school. We only had to learn about our heroic kings that won (sometimes) battles in Europe while the people were starving at home.

I've always thought America should be judged against nations in similar positions than compared to say Aruba or Sweden. Give those nations the wealth, miiltary and the economy and you'll see them use it in ways you wouldn't have thought of otherwise.

I'm not sure what Aruba is but I think it is a very small island in the West Indies. As for Sweden see my previous comment. Are you aware of that Sweden is one of the largest countries in Europe (geographically that is).

I've always thought America should be judged against nations in similar positions than compared to say Aruba or Sweden. Give those nations the wealth, miiltary and the economy and you'll see them use it in ways you wouldn't have thought of otherwise.

The Soviet Union were never hypocritical about it to the same extent. As for the old imperial powers, they were even less hypocritical. It is my understanding that you are an Americian of African descent. Are you aware of the fact that the basis of the slave trade was the "christian" church stating that Africans had no soul and were therefore not to be regarded as human beings. All counties in power have committed atrocities. It's the hypocrisy that pisses me off.

China has to change to maintain its economic power.

'

China is changing all the time and always has. This is what separates China from the Soviet Union which lacked the ability to adapt to new times. When Michail Gorbatjev tried it was to late.

Someone commented that all you have to do is keep the military fed. Its a temporary fix. It doesn't last.

I belive that was me and yes it will work for a limited time but this time could be quite long. Remember that China has existed for 5000 years and has never been a democracy. The people that founded your country came from Europe where democracy was emerging and many of them crossed the ocean because they wanted more democrasy.

 

regards

 

ALHOLK

[Steve]

The Soviet Union was a nation a lot longer and imploded. 50 years is nothing. Try 50 years as the worlds #1 super power. They will have immense pressure when that happens. Any country can have a totalitarian government for a long time, my statement was that you can't have a long history as a #1 nation with such a government.

 

As for the Soviet 'rule of law'. So, the citizens there have due process? A senator hits my car I am injured I have recourse. I'd wager any amount the same can't be said if a member of the politburo hit a Russian. Their rule of law must have been that they could arrest anyone, anytime. I didn't know Sweden was like that. ::

 

 

Blocking kiddie porn is one thing. Blocking sites where they offer differing political viewpoints and news is a whole different matter. I may not agree with CNN or the NY Times but I can read any number of media and blogs from across the world. They can't control access forever. Too many chinese traveling abroad and being exposed to more and more foreigners coming in.

 

As for pretending to be a humane democracy. There isn't a nation on earth that one can not find something about their laws or culture that the rest of us will strongly disagree with. Sweden has a fine reputation but at closer inspection don't they have a law that foreigners must learn Swedish after a certain length of time? Again, I'm not saying America is this saintly country but I guess we agree to disagree to what extent how bad it is. I am well aware of America's treatment of blacks, natives, immigrants, etc. England, the Netherlands, Spain, France, etc. all had colonies where they enslaved native peoples. Its obviously wrong. A lot of these nations still have present racial and ethnic tensions (France and Germany for example). As I said, no nation is immune. I'm a pragmatist. There are some things that are just human nature. Man will always kill man, etc. Give France, Germany, England or Sweden...America's present military, economic and political power and I seriously doubt they will be much better than 'a hypocritical humane democracy'. As I said, we'll just agree to disagree to what extent it is. Basically, ANY country that is leading its era will always be maligned, sometimes justifiably, by a lot of folks. Some people hate the NY Yankees and Man United simply because they are the biggest in their sport and you can exchange sport for nation with America.

 

There is hypocracy EVERYWHERE my friend. Within nations and within ourselves. I'm not sure if you're suggesting that you'd rather have a power that is blatantly subversive and doesn't hide it to a power that pretends to at times.

 

As for China, anything can happen. I think they'll change because they'll have to. Grudgingly and it will a push to change externally so that they are accepted by the west and thought of as 'modern' and internally by the growing, educated middle class who will have picked up foreign notions like 'freedom' and 'democracy'. No one would have envisioned Iran having such a large percentage of their populace actually WANTING western style government and having an affinity for the U.S. of all places. Its a strange world and things change.

[Steve]

One more thing, I've always thought there was double-standard amongst westerners. Other western nations are judged differently than non western nations. Mugabe, Jung of Korea, even the Chinese are not judged the same as America. I think there are two reasons for this. One, its a reverse form of racism. Western (code word for white) nations are seen as being more enlightened and we have to give others (non white nations) some leeway in how we assess them and 2nd, good old western guilt from their once owning those same nations that they left in disrepair.

 

No one gets off the hook in my book. I judge each man I meet equally and assess if he's a basically good or bad person. Most on here are the same. I wish we'd do that with nations as well.

[David_66_UK]

but have never seen an Indian.

 

BEHIND YOU!

 

..........unless you were posting at night, cos' EVERYONE knows the beggars don't attack then

 

 

But seriously, some (IMHO) good thinking here, for me at least - including Chocolat Steve.

 

Am a bit too pissed to contribute now.......... so I won't