kevkev1888 Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 Im seriously getting worried about the current exchange rate trend with the british pound! End of November was over 70 has been dropping steadily now we at the end of Feb and is under 64!!! This is a big issue for me as my only income is coming from the UK and has efectivley droped 10% in 3 months. Anyone got any ideas whats going on here and what the outlook for 2008 may be. Should i be opening a Thai bank account like NOW and transfer a lump sum, say to last 6 months or just sit it out hoping things will move in my favour??? Now i know this is an impossible question just looking for some insight or views from some that may know more than me whats going on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nordicman Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 Welcome to the club! The US dollar has gone from about 43 baht to the buck to 32 since 2001. It is your Pound's turn. Virtually all major currencies are inflating---BIG TIME. As for the Thai Baht, well, I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket either, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekong Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 Obviously you guys dont remember the exchange rates of pre-97 when is was approx 25 to US$ and 40 to STG. Even mid-97 it was only around 50 to STG and the peak was January 98. This Web Site shows the historic (offshore) exchange rates over the past 12 years. Personaly if I was planning to retire based on a fixed STG income I would be rather conservative with my estimations of future exchange rate fluctuations and base my calculations closer to an exchange rate of 50 THB/STG not 70 as the (onshore) rate was recently. The problem with a Thai Bank Account is the very low interest rates, does one wish to tie up funds withoit them working for you whilst speculating on FOREX? Hard to second guess, I'm an Engineer not a Financial Guru so I am not going to offer advise on this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stickman Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 I think the outlook is bleak, I hate to say it. The US dollar has taken a whopping hit and looks set to go lower yet. The pound's turn has come and it won't be long before the NZ and Australian dollars get hit too. The Euro seems fairly strong as does the Canadian, but there are no guarantees. My prediction, based on no particular economic data is that by the end of May you'll get less than 60 baht for a pound and less than 30 baht for a US dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bibblies Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 My prediction, based on no particular economic data .... lol. You've got to love those kind of predictions. Sadly, I think you're right .. though not on the Australian dollar. With their natural resources in demand, I think that'll hold up much better than the pound or dollar. Not sure about NZ either. Isn't part of the reason Thailand's doing well the fact that agricultural commodities are doing well? Isn't NZ still pretty good on that front too? Have you found any efficient way of betting/hedging on your Baht/$/£ theory? I'd like to spreadbet it but it's not available from my spreadbetting provider. Maybe simply buying the SET index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 It's been in the UK news that they expect the £ to continue slipping all year as it's been artificially high.. The Australian $ has gone from £1=$2.40 to $2.01, which is pissing me off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderlust Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 OANDA has the USD/THB currency pair. It doesn't have GBP/THB but you could sell GBP/USD and USD/THB at the same time to hedge against any further falls in GBP/THB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Munchmaster Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 ....Sadly, I think you're right .. though not on the Australian dollar. With their natural resources in demand, I think that'll hold up much better than the pound or dollar..... Kangaroos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coss Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 On the NZ $ any way this article notes the recent movement against the US $ but it seems that the Thai baht still does really well compared to NZ. As a tourist I'd like to see the baht weaken against the NZ $ but I don't know if it will happen. Commentary today suggests NZ $ going to 85c against the US soon and possibly parity over 2-3 years. (this commentary being from experts in the field means the opposite is just as likely) Cheers Coss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted February 26, 2008 Report Share Posted February 26, 2008 Isn't there sort of a trend to move currencies as close to one another as possible? some sort of global/trade equity conspiracy? In other words, make it all equal for a global economic parity? that is one theory anyway...I keep hearing the BHT is going to dump maybe next year...of course the USD will drop as well, so maybe all relative. How long before we see $300 short time? As for the USD and the BHT...what made the BHT strong against the USD years back (Pre97)? Trade? cheap labor costs? Isn't Vietnam kicking ass in the region now? Cheaper labor etc...? Unstable political system in Thailand? What about all this over extended unsecured credit the Thai government and banks supposedly gave out? a crisis similar to that of the U.S. with mortgages? I know less than nothing of economics, but this all seems too screwed up to call right now, I am hoping for the best (in my favor of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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