Russia sends forces into Georgian rebel conflict

[chuckwoww]

I doubt very much if the Russians will go into Georgia proper. They don't need to. NATO can't help Saakashvili. He blew it. The only question now is whether Moscow will push for regime change in Georgia.

[waerth]

The Russian have already pushed into Georgia proper, the last time I looked on the map Abchazia and South Ossetia were in it. They also bombed targets in other parts of the country.

 

I think that the Russians will try for an assault on other parts of Georgia under the banner of going after the "guilty" parties. I think that Putin sees this as a test case to see how much leeway the world will allow him.

 

The interesting thing now is what will the Ukrainians do. They are the wild card in this game. They have been bullied on a few occasions by the Russians in the last few years (gas pipe, black sea fleet which is now used against Georgia). And their history with the Russians makes for sour grapes already. Also Poland and the Baltic States are furious. They cannot do much really, but hotheads might prevail.

 

Short of declaring war or reinstating the Iron curtain there is not much Nato could do. I agree with you there. Putin will not be impressed by any economic measures really, he could just block the gas deliveries to Europe. There is one interesting move that Bush could do though. Station American troops in Georgia independent of Nato. It would make for a whole new ballgame and raise the stakes to a dangerous level. But it would effectively block the Russians unless they were willing to go for all out war.

 

Ahhhhh it is a long time since I last played tabletop war games. I used to be good at those.

[chuckwoww]

Maps don't always show the true situation on the ground. Abkhazians and South Ossetians don't consider themselves part of Georgia. Same way the Kosovars didn't consider themselves part of Serbia. The Russians are basically doing what NATO did in Yugoslavia. They may even try to get Saakashvili on an ethnic cleansing charge but they have to catch him. You're right about US troops in Georgia. That would be incredibly risky.

[Old Hippie]

Simply put, the USA cannot handle the wars it has now. No way we could handle another one, be it Iran or Russia.

[elef]

From the russians POV there're interfering in the conflict to stop the US and NATO to take over an other country and have Russia further encircled.

[Flashermac]

We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

 

As Russia forces its neighbour to retreat from South Ossetia, the people of Gori tell our correspondent of betrayal by the West

 

 

As a Russian jet bombed fields around his village, Djimali Avago, a Georgian farmer, asked me: â??Why wonâ??t America and Nato help us? If they wonâ??t help us now, why did we help them in Iraq?â?Â

 

A similar sense of betrayal coursed through the conversations of many Georgians here yesterday as their troops retreated under shellfire and the Russian Army pressed forward to take full control of South Ossetia.

 

Smoke rose as Russian artillery fire exploded less than half a mile from the bridge marking South Ossetiaâ??s border with Georgia. A group of Georgian soldiers hastily abandoned their lorry after its wheels were shot out and ran across the border.

 

Georgian troops looked disheartened as they regrouped around tank lines about 2km from the border. Many said that they had been fighting in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, until the early hours when they were suddenly ordered to withdraw from the breakaway region.

 

â??They told us to come out â?? I donâ??t know why â?? but some of our guys are still out there in the fields,â? one soldier told The Times. â??I want to go back. If we lose South Ossetia now, it wonâ??t be for ever because we will never surrender our land.â?Â

 

...

 

 

The Georgian Government is recalling its 2,000 troops serving in Iraq to confront the threat at home. Many Georgians will be reluctant to send them back after this war ends. Their despair was in sharp contrast to the confidence on the other side. At a base near the border, Russian peacekeepers appeared sure they would soon be joined by comrades from the regular army. â??We are operating normally; nobody has disturbed us at all,â? said one.

 

In Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, refugees from the fighting told how Russian helicopters bombed homes in Tshkinvali and neighbouring villages. Some spent days in basements before emerging to discover that their communities had been obliterated. Mzia Sabashvili, who hid for three days, said: â??I know that lots of my neighbours are dead. I have no idea who is left.â?Â

 

The Russians paid little heed to those in their way. A vehicle carrying observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe was shot at by a sniper near Tskhinvali. The bullet cracked the toughened glass of the passenger window, where a British officer had been sitting.

 

...

 

 

 

Link

[Flashermac]

<< In a series of media interviews, Saakashvili sought to bring the United States fully behind him. After speaking to Bush by phone, he told Germany's Rhein-Zeitung newspaper: "[bush] understands that it's not really about Georgia but in a certain sense it's also an aggression against America. The Russians want the whole of Georgia. The Russians need control over energy routes from central Asia and the Caspian Sea. In addition, they want to get rid of us, they want regime change. Every democratic movement in this neighbouring region must be got rid of," he was quoted as saying. >>

 

 

Oil again ...

 

 

[waerth]

"Zalid Khalilzad, the US ambassador to the UN, asked his Russian counterpart Vitali Churkin: "Is the goal of the Russian Federation to change the leadership of Georgia?" Churkin replied: "There are leaders who become an obstacle. Sometimes those leaders need to contemplate how useful they have become to their people.""

 

Says it all.

[chuckwoww]

So in retrospect France and Germany were right to delay NATO membership for Georgia. They see Saakashvili as a hothead.

[Flashermac]

On the other hand, would the Russkies have dared invade if Georgia was already a member of NATO?