PAD protests...

[CTO]

They haven't before why start now?

 

If protester's took over Parliment house SD in 67/71 in USA you don't think they'd be "allowed" to stay there?

 

How many people did the USA government shoot in protests in USA in 60's.

 

All in all PAD has been very lucky.

[WorldFun]

yeah it's a gamble, but gambling is better than a war or?

do we vote for GW Bush or Obama?

[WorldFun]

further on current options:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/27/opinion/opinion_30089494.php

 

"

THAI TALK

Operation total destruction VS state-sponsored terrorism

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

Published on November 27, 2008

 

 

 

How do the angry protesters of the People's Alliance for Democracy justify the seizure of Suvarnabhumi Airport on Tuesday night? They don't. Well, to be more precise, they can't. In fact, one of the core leaders even admitted that they would find it hard to try to cite a good reason for that drastic action.

 

The desperate search for an extreme drama to seek an end to the political impasse - after six months of holding out at the Government House compound - was the only excuse the PAD leaders could find to offer any semblance of justification that stranded at least 10,000 passengers on Tuesday night. Untold damage will result if "Operation Total Disruption" continues today, as the protestors continue to hunt down Premier Somchai, no matter where his plane might have landed last night after its long flight from Lima, Peru.

 

But then, Somchai's departure from office won't be a big blow to the country. In fact, his passive and dismally ineffectual style of governing has helped substantiate the PAD's vocal and persistent accusation that he was behind the so-called state-sponsored terrorism in the form of bombs from M79 grenade launchers, one after another, over the past week.

 

The PAD has, from day one, dubbed Somchai "Thaksin's stooge". After October 7, when police were ordered to use force to disperse protesters in front of Parliament House, he was known as a "blood-stained prime minister". And soon after former premier Thaksin Shinawatra was sentenced to two years' imprisonment, the premier inevitably became the nominee of a political convict.

 

But Somchai has never publicly said anything critical of the PAD. In fact, he has even sounded conciliatory, expressing his readiness for negotiations with his worst enemy. The olive branch, however, quickly withered away when Somchai's lieutenants started firing verbal salvos and unidentified gunmen used M79 grenade launchers almost nightly to attack the PAD's guards. While the PAD's ASTV was spewing round-the-clock vitriol against the "remnants of the Thaksin regime", Somchai turned a blind eye to his officials using government-run NBT (Channel 11) to launch vehement counter-attacks against the PAD. Clashes between followers of the yellow and red factions became more frequent and deadly.

 

The rest of us have been taken hostage by the yellow-red showdown.

 

The military, caught in its own dilemma, can't decide what role it should play at this crucial time when it is expected to be an honest broker.

 

PAD leaders have been calling upon the top brass, especially Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, to make a clear public stand on the people's side.

 

Thaksin's men, fearful of another coup that could put the brakes on any possible return to power for the ruling party, have been threatening to go out on the streets against any military takeover.

 

General Anupong's no-coup refrain has been convincing - not because the public believes the Army isn't tempted by political power but because even the most powerful military officer can't be sure how to handle the post-coup political complexities.

 

Somchai's side has been saying the PAD is agitating for a coup so that it can share power with military dictators. The PAD has shot back with the charge that Thaksin has been stepping up his effort to create political tension within because he wanted to push the military to the brink of a coup to create sufficient chaos to justify a national civil war that could propel him back to power.

 

The PAD's decision to launch its "total war" to unseat Somchai was clearly a high-risk gamble. It's a make-or-break move that could backfire. But the protest leaders seem to have come to the conclusion that a drawn-out cat-and-mouse game would only weaken the PAD. A no-peace-no-war situation would only benefit the Thaksin camp.

 

As the PAD's chief strategist Maj-General Chamlong Srimuang put it before the big move began: "If we can't win this time round, we will just go home and hand the country over to the criminals."

 

Somchai must have found it hard to come home last evening through the normal channel in a peaceful manner. Chamlong knows that once out on the streets, you can't go home again.

 

(Catch up with my latest blogs around the clock on the ongoing events at: http:// blog.nationmultimedia.com/ thaitalk and www.suthichaiyoon. blogspot.com.)"

[WorldFun]

Hmm another edge to it!!!

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/27/opinion/opinion_30089492.php

 

"

BANGKOKIAN

A psychological block

By WICHIT CHAITRONG

THE NATION

Published on November 27, 2008

 

 

 

Psychological barriers to conflict resolution have imposed a high cost for the country socially and economically. Psychology can shed some light on our persisting political conflict. It can answer some questions such as why the conflict has been prolonged and become more violent.

 

According to Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel prize in economics, and other psychologists, optimistic overconfidence is one important factor that impedes successful negotiation.

 

This is because, among rivals, each strongly believes he can impose resolution on the other party. Applied to our conflict, we could say that the People's Alliance for Democracy has overconfidence in its demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and the government. At the same time, Somchai and his Cabinet have the confidence that they can force the PAD to accept their authority.

 

The other factor is that each party tends to overvalue certain outcomes that can be enforced immediately, while undervaluing uncertain outcomes such as goodwill offered to, or by, rivals.

 

Applied to our conflict situation, the PAD is not satisfied with the government's recent vague offer that it would not seek amendment of the Constitution. And the PAD is not satisfied with Somchai's promise that he would take responsibility for the death of a protester on October 7 if an investigation pointed to mistakes by the government in handling the street protests.

 

The vague promise has a lower value than a concrete offer, or what is perceived to be concrete, such as the government's immediate resignation. Psychologists argue that an uncertain outcome is no less important than a certain one. It may not be wise for rival parties to undervalue goodwill or other uncertain promises because prolonged conflict poses a higher risk. They point to the unending internal conflict in Lebanon, or the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israel and Syria, due partly to rivals undervaluing uncertain factors, such as goodwill.

 

Research on individual decision-making has identified a major bias in consideration assigned to probabilities, certainties and perceived certainties of advantage, according to Kahneman and Almos Tversky.

 

Another factor is loss aversion. According to the two, losses generally loom larger than corresponding gains. For example, people are more upset about losing Bt1,000 than they are happier about gaining Bt1,000. This can lead to a rival not willing to make a concession while at the same time undervaluing an offered concession.

 

There are other interesting psychological aspects, such as the tendency to seek evidence that confirms an initial stance, leading to a rejection of opposing views.

 

As rivals engage in gambles to achieve the ultimate goal, both sides face the higher risk of greater economic burden and social instability.

 

The cost of the escalating conflict has unfolded before our eyes since 2006, from the governments of Thaksin, Samak and Somchai (some might say it is only the same Thaksin government). Now, with the seizure of Suvarnabhumi Airport, the cost of the conflict has probably risen beyond our capacity to calculate.

 

At the macro level, tourism, exports, imports, investment and consumption will be adversely affected. At the micro level, those who are depressed by the ongoing political conflict risk heart attacks and mental illness.

 

The political crisis combined with the global financial crisis has taken all of us down. Who can save us? If we're optimistic, we might believe that our predicament will end soon, because the rivals will realise that they have both done huge damage to our common interests. But psychological barriers suggest otherwise. "

[Faustian]

Ummm, maybe the writer needs to study some more. He's presented some psychological motivating factors, but failed to mention others. In fact this piece could be dismissed as over-simplistic and missing the point, but what do I know....?

[Flashermac]

They haven't before why start now?

 

If protester's took over Parliment house SD in 67/71 in USA you don't think they'd be "allowed" to stay there?

 

How many people did the USA government shoot in protests in USA in 60's.

 

All in all PAD has been very lucky.

 

 

I don't recall that the US government shot any protestors in the 1960. If you're thinking of Kent State, that was the guv of Ohio who sent in the NG draft dodgers who opened fire on anti-war protestors.

 

BTW the student protestors killed in the Thammasat Massacre had illegally occupied the university's campus. They were disrupting the final exams too. Guess they got what they deserved?

 

 

 

 

 

[drogon]

I wonder: In every crisis/war/time of unrest there are loosers and winners.

 

(except Switzerland which is the only country getting rich both in time of peace or war)

 

I wonder who are the current winners?

Sure, they must be wealthy Thais but which sector, company, organization is ripping profits or about to do so?

 

Or can the Thais in general be so stubborn that everyone will loose??

[CTO]

So USA would shoot protester's who take over congress your saying?

[CTO]

Flash - I would think a governor of a state as "government"

[Flashermac]

Not unless they were armed and violent. But the guards are there to keep such people out! Where where the guards at the airports, Government House etc? It's easier to keep people out than to get the out once they are in.