when flights do return then!!

[Gadfly]

I am certainly no expert on this either. A few questions for some here who may know more about airports and a few comments

 

Is any international certification of what the Thai authorities do required? If so add, more time,

 

Assume the clearing process doesn't start until Sunday, add at least one day.

 

Now assume it gets ugly, add several more days.

 

I read somewhere that this "has to be" resolved (the airports cleared) by the H.M. the King's birtday, which is 5 December. If the airport is cleared, by say, 4 December (brinkmanship seems to be a constant theme in all of this), the airport could be closed until next week, right?

 

If that happens, imagine how may travel plans will need to cancelled. Imagine how many have already been cancelled. There will be a tremendous back log of flights. And this will not just affect passenger travel.

 

There was an interesting article in the International Herald Tribune about how Thailand was poised to be logisitics center/transportation hub for this part of Southeast Asia. Air freight is also going to be a problem.

 

This is not like a natural disaster where, when it strikes, you know it ends and you can begin to assess the damage and make estimates on the costs and how long it will take to for things to return to normal. Here, no one rally know when the occupation will end.

 

No one knows if the security forces are willing to clear out the airport. There not only the coup fears, but the fear of fighting within the armed forces.

 

And how we do know this won't happen again. The airport is cleared on 5 Decemeber and then reoccupied on 6 December.

 

This all speculation, but I suspect that is about all you can do now: look at various scernarios and add in the additional time required to bring the airport back-up and work through the back log of flights.

 

As time goes on, the question "when do the flights return" will become increasingly irrelevant for tourists, because they will have booked elsewhere. I wouldn't want to be in the tourism sector now. There all sorts of predictions about how it will effect the tourism sector, but because no one knows how long this will go on, no one really knows and that uncertainity, just by itself, creates additional problems.

[Bangkoktraveler]

Some of the yellow shirts got thru the police lines. The police are in stand down mode. This may go on for another week or more. I would hate to be in Somchai's shoes. It seems like he is in control of nothing. Is the coup almost over?

[WorldFun]

yup police blocks cleared by PAD so they are still in pretty much full control of airports & able to get supplies & fresh faces in!!!

pretty amazing - there was report they detained a few police men while they we're at it...

lame duck uncertainty continues

 

I guess next reports will be about PAD having taking tourists, police & others hostages aka the mumbai modos of operandi

 

seriously the 2nd pad leader chamlung whatever says he is willing to negotiate with PM - just not willing to go all the way to CM for it LOL!

[dddave]

The silence from on top is deafening: The PAD obviously has the highest support. The Police do not know what to do and the Army will sit tight.

How and when this will end is impossible to predict.

 

If the PM resigns, the Red Shirts will go nuts.

[Gadfly]

You are right. This opening sentence from a Bangkok Post article put up on their site earlier today says it all: "Police who set up security checkpoints at Suvarnabhumi airport were overran by a handful of protesters led by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on Saturday morning."

 

Obviously the authorities are reluctant to act, for whatever reason, which means this could go on for a very long time. Today'sBangkok Post also has has a story about a Bank of Thailand study concluding that Thailand could suffer a 40% drop in tourism and other serious economic woes if this nonsense continues.

 

All of this in a country that depends on exports and tourism at a time when the world economy is having serious problems. I know that it often seems as though supply and demand doesn't mean anything in Thailand, but at this point, the consequences are inescapable.

 

Following the BOT article, I saw this comment: "If this situation was not so serious it would be comedic. I foresee segments being played out on stages around the globe" - yes, this sort of theatre is what is known as a â??farceâ?Â.

 

[samak]

this showdown of the two major forces of power in thailand is far more important for the long term development as that short term impacts on tourism or economy would be considered!

[..]

I see this as having much, much bigger stakes than most folks realize (CTO I know gets it, I'm sure some other old hands do too). And on just that aspect, I'd capitulate and say I'm not so sure the PAD losing would be a terrible thing...

 

Cheers,

SD

[CTO]

FARK - I feel faint, I knew youd come back to your Democrat heart land!

 

Was it something I said - I am giddy!

[bust]

I don't really think anyone can predict how this will play out.

Lot of guessing but you can be certain the worst is yet to come.

[..]

FARK - I feel faint, I knew youd come back to your Democrat heart land!

 

Was it something I said - I am giddy!

Don't be. I still think Wacky & his crew are the worst thing for this country and want them gone...

 

Cheers,

SD