Mentors Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 Thailand is destined for years of political unrest and uncertainty, analysts say, after protests triggered a state of emergency in Bangkok and forced the humiliating shutdown of a major summit. The kingdom's colour-coded political turmoil was again thrust into the international spotlight when red-shirted anti-government activists stormed a high-profile meeting of Asian leaders on Saturday, forcing its cancellation. With the demonstrations escalating on Sunday, tanks deployed on the streets of Bangkok, reviving memories of the 2006 ouster of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra in a military coup, the trigger for three years of turmoil. As the embattled current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, announced that the protesters could face the use of force, analysts said the embarrassing cancellation of the summit in Pattaya would only result in more division. This summit incident will deepen the rifts in Thai society. Thailand will be divided and unstable for the next few years," said Somchai Phagaphasvivat, an academic at Thailand's respected Thammasat University. "Anyone could become leader in the future - even a junta government." Thaksin, living in exile avoiding jail for corruption but still influential, is at the centre of the rift: he is loved by the rural and urban poor, represented by the so-called "Red Shirts" who forced the closure of the summit. On the other side is the powerful Bangkok-based cliques in the palace, military and bureaucracy, mostensibly represented by the "Yellow Shirts" who loathe the billionaire and side with the current Abhisit administration. The British-born Abhisit has only been in power since December, when a court turfed out the previous pro-Thaksin government, but, like those before him, he has failed to come good on his promise to unite the country. Thailand's fourth prime minister in the space of a year, analysts say Abhisit's own personal fate matters less than the need to find a long-term solution that will restore peace once and for all. Without it, tourists and foreign investors will increasingly be scared off by Thailand, observers say, further hurting the economy as it hurtles towards recession, which in turn would only result in more strife. "The fact that the summit has been postponed now is humiliating for the government," said analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "It shows the world that last year was not a one-off," Thitinan said, referring to protests against the then-government that saw yellow-shirted demonstrators force the closure of Bangkok's airports. "This is going to go on for some time, this kind of mob rule," Thitinan added. Another analyst said only reform of a political system dominated by patronage, provincial strongmen and the influence of a shadowy elite would provide the permanent stability the country so badly needs. Politics in Thailand is not a public affair, it is an extension of families and their cliques. This is the building block of the entire system," said Michael Nelson, a visiting academic at Chulalongkorn University. "Then we have the other elite groups like the privy council (the advisors to the King and the military, and what they do behind the scenes - which is not for public consumption." - AFP/de http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/421874/1/.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 When (edit mod3, can't mention this here), there will be a huge power struggle. I got a feeling we haven't seen anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentors Posted April 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 Analysis: Thailand becomes ungovernable On one side of the bitter grudge match is Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister. Thanks to his popularity among the poor, he won two elections before he was deposed by a military coup in 2006. After the coup, with Mr Thaksin in exile, his party won another poll. On the other side are the urban middle class who hate Mr Thaksin's reputed corruption and autocratic ways. The elite in the royal palace, army and bureaucracy felt threatened by his challenge to their traditional power. Neither side can abide the other. When Mr Thaksin or his friends are in power, yellow-shirted mobs take to the streets. Last year they even invaded Bangkok's airport for a week, crippling the economy. Mr Thaksin's followers were duly toppled in December - and now it is the red shirts' turn to take Thailand hostage, wrecking an international summit at the weekend and rampaging around Bangkok. The rhetoric is uncompromising. Mr Thaksin has urged his supporters to overturn the old order forever. Meanwhile, Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has called the protesters "national enemies". The red shirts are angry at what they see as double standards. When their government was in power last year, the army refused to rescue the administration from "yellow" protesters. The army chief even called for the elected prime minister to resign. Despite the inactivity of the soldiers on the streets of Bangkok on Sunday, the army will probably back the government this time. But the risks are immense. Whether they succeed or fail in restoring him to power, the protests will surely deepen the animus against Mr Thaksin. Meanwhile, Mr Abhisit's days in office may already be numbered. He was humiliated by the fiasco of the Asian summit at the weekend, as heads of government fled by helicopter from a hotel roof as protesters swarmed downstairs. For the government's supporters among Thailand's elite, failing to act as mobs roam Bangkok is not an option. Yet crushing the protests risks enraging Mr Thaksin's supporters, who are arguably the majority in the country. In recent Thai history, governments that crush street movements have quickly fallen. But the demonstrators themselves are risking everything. In the last situation comparable to this, in 1992, an unknown number of democracy activists were shot dead by soldiers. Meanwhile, Thailand's economy is already reeling, with the Tourism Council warning that unrest could cost £3.8 billion this year. There have been four Thai prime ministers in the last 12 months alone â?? and no-one can say how many there will be in the next twelve. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/thailand/5145253/Analysis-Thailand-becomes-ungovernable.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kamui Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 When (edit mod3, can't mention this here), there will be a huge power struggle. I got a feeling we haven't seen anything yet. Currently the pawns are being moved into position, moved by knights, while queens and bishops prefer to act and stay in the shadow for now, awaiting (edit mod3, can't mention this here) This is just a prelude I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentors Posted April 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 as i already said after the coupe d'etat in Autum 2006. The fight about Thailands future has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shygye Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 ... does this count the past 2 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plainsdrifter Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 Unfortunately for Thailand, there is a conflict being waged between the proxies of , what can be called, Royalists vs Anti-Royalists. What isn't clear is whether the Yellow Shirts and Red Shirts are aware that they are being used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted April 13, 2009 Report Share Posted April 13, 2009 The vast majority of the Red Shirt supporters are royalists - including my university educated wife. What Thaksin has managed to do is convince many poor upcountry folks that those who "have" are somehow responsible for their poverty. They expect some sort of socialist programme, which the multi-billionaire Thaksin and his cronies is sure as hell not going to give them. The proles of both colours are definitely being used. I feel I am almost back in the 1970s again. Thailand doesn't go forward, it goes in circles! p.s. Taxi drivers often point out to me how much money they were making under Thaksin - 2,000 to 3,000 baht a day. They say they were plenty of tourists and they were living high on the hog. Since Thaksin has been gone, there are very few tourists coming and they are lucky to make 1,000 baht a day. The fact that the whole world's economy is farked and tourists can't afford to go anywhere is simply beyond their comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted April 13, 2009 Report Share Posted April 13, 2009 << Thaksin said he was closely monitoring the state of emergency. "I will monitor the situation and if necessary I will return to Thailand and lead a long march of people. I will not allow them [authorities] to use force," Thaksin said. >> Oh, wonderful .. now he thinks he is fucking Mao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekong Posted April 13, 2009 Report Share Posted April 13, 2009 Chairman or Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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