ThaiHome Posted August 10, 2009 Report Share Posted August 10, 2009 Viet Nam is quickly overtaking LOS; in rice exports and tourism!My brother-in-law made several visits to LOS but or the past few years, goes to Viet Nam...better value, more tourist friendly, less scams. Wake up call for LOS Its refuting statements like these with actual facts that gets me labeled as a “Thai Defenderâ€Â. Rice – Thailand is indeed facing stiff price competition from Vietnam these days. Vietnam is forecasted to export about 5 million tones of rice compared to Thailand’s 8.5 million tones. The trend is Thailand going down and Vietnam increasing. But they have a ways to go before they overtake Thailand in sheer volume or sales. Vietnam as a much poorer country enjoys a much cheaper labor force so certainly has an advantage. Countries like Vietnam will continue to grow faster then Thailand in these labor intensive industries. That is part of the development cycle. Tourism – Vietnam is expected to reach about 4.3 million visitors in 2009. Forecast for Thailand in 2009 are not easy to find, but should be well over 10 million and could be as high as 14 if you just take the 3.5 million in the first quarter times 4. Vietnam has enjoyed an amazing increase in tourism over the past few years as they have opened up and the infrastructure grows to be able to service it. My guess is when they get to the really big numbers like Thailand has now; you will start to see a lot of the same issues that Thailand is facing start to surface. So, yeah, Vietnam is increasing in both these areas, while Thailand is on a downward trend in these areas. But, even though both rice exports and tourism are large contributors to Thailand’s economy, maybe a comparison to other areas between Vietnam and Thailand is worth a look, just for a bit or perspective. GDP per capita Vietnam - $1,040 Thailand - $4,115 Exports Vietnam - Forecasted 2009 = $61 billion (about 25% crude oil) Thailand - Forecasted 2009 = $125 billion (2008 was some $160 billion) Comparing Thailand and Vietnam is apple and oranges, they are still very far apart on the development curve, and Vietnam is still on bottom where increases are very rapid. The day you can say that Vietnam has overtaken Thailand in manufacturing and export of hard drives, integrated circuit boards, and vehicles (about $38 billion in 2008), then we can start worrying. Another example, Vietnam has one refinery and it took 12 years to build it (finally finished in Feb this year). 3 different major oil companies bailed out along the way mostly due to corruption. Thailand has 7 crude refineries producing all the gasoline and diesel used domestically, 6 gas separation plants, 5 ethylene crackers, along with an extensive downstream petro chemical industry that produces over $5 billion of exports in polymers and propylene products in addition to servicing most of the domestic market. As that one refinery shows, trying build one these major projects in Vietnam is almost impossible. Call it “Thai Defending†if you want, but I think it just looking at the facts. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalo_bill Posted August 10, 2009 Report Share Posted August 10, 2009 Comparing tourist numbers means counting border entries in your example . if you start to sum up days people spend in the country , Thai tourism leads by far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gadfly Posted August 10, 2009 Report Share Posted August 10, 2009 Just focusing on tourist numbers, the most important issues are these: are they going up? Are they reaching, exceeding or not meeting projections? Honest and relevant questions. Ya want honest answers, or bullshit spin? The numbers are going down in Thailand, dramatically. Go back a bit, and the projections for this year were 15 million. Millions were invested on the assumption that this figure would be easily to meet. Because of what has happened over the last several years, the actual figures are now actually one-third lower. One third lower is significant. (In the US, the numbers are below double digits, and the US is a developed economy, unlike Thailand where serious growth should happen if the policies are even half way reasonable). Construction of new hotels and infrastructure improvement is cancelled, hotels and tourist venues are either closed or continue on life support, and jobs are lost or employees make half of what they made a scant two years before dramatically. You can address the issues,or you can stick you head in the sand and blame foreigners for bad press. Many, but certainly not all, countries in the region are taking a pragmatic approach and addressing the issues. In Thailand, like Burma, astrologers and witch doctors are more important to setting policy to anyone with a modicum of education. The trend lines do not look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 Despite your assertion that Thailand is “sticking it head in the sand†and “astrologers and witch doctors are more important to policy†in the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2009 published in March 2009, Thailand improved from a 2008 ranking of 42 to 39th and remains solidly in 4th place for SEA. There is no doubt that the political instability, particularly the manifestation that ended up shutting down the airport last year hurt the rankings, but nevertheless, they managed a modest move up. Pretty much exactly the opposite of what you are saying. TH Link Country 2009 Rank 2009 Score 2008 Rank Singapore 10 5.24 16 Hong Kong 12 5.18 14 Malaysia 32 4.71 32 Thailand 39 4.45 42 Indonesia 81 3.79 80 Philippines 86 3.73 81 Vietnam 89 3.7 96 Cambodia 108 3.43 112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozpharlap Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 From the records shown, it appears that all of the SEA countries have improved (save and accept Indonesia (a minute drop) & the Philippines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 And Malaysia, which stayed at 32nd. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 Despite your assertion that Thailand is “sticking it head in the sand†and “astrologers and witch doctors are more important to policy†in the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2009 published in March 2009, Thailand improved from a 2008 ranking of 42 to 39th and remains solidly in 4th place for SEA. There is no doubt that the political instability, particularly the manifestation that ended up shutting down the airport last year hurt the rankings, but nevertheless, they managed a modest move up. Pretty much exactly the opposite of what you are saying. TH Link Country 2009 Rank 2009 Score 2008 Rank Singapore 10 5.24 16 Hong Kong 12 5.18 14 Malaysia 32 4.71 32 Thailand 39 4.45 42 Indonesia 81 3.79 80 Philippines 86 3.73 81 Vietnam 89 3.7 96 Cambodia 108 3.43 112 This information came from a Travel and Tourism Competiveness Index 2009 and 2008 Comparisons. I would say the data is speculative and what one person likes another person may hate. The data places Mexico as being a lot favorable place to go to then Vietnam. Now the USA State Department is constantly placing warnings out about going to Mexico but I never have heard of State warnings for Vietnam nor have I read of the type of violence Mexico has been experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 << Singapore 10 5.24 16 Hong Kong 12 5.18 14 Malaysia 32 4.71 32 Thailand 39 4.45 42 >> Bizarre ... Malaysia has a lot to offer tourists, but what have Singabore and Hong Kong got besides shopping? (Besides overpriced Thai hookers ...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTO Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 Givern we're half way through 2009 - surely these figuresrepresent previous years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiHome Posted August 11, 2009 Report Share Posted August 11, 2009 The report was issued in March 2009. From the Excutive Summary, it appears to have taken into account most recent issues, inlcuding those that started in late 2008: The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Travel & Tourism (T&T) industry. These have ranged from mounting concerns about terrorism in several regions to the high cost of fuel and lower tourism-based spending linked to the current economic downturn. In this context, this third edition of The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report is being released at a time when the industry finds itself at a crossroads with regard to how to address these diverse and mounting challenges. Not too surprised that some here doubt the report. Doesn’t fit with their agenda too well. After all, I’m sure their anecdotal experiences are probably much more objective and accurate. Just to throw a bit more fuel on the fire, here is what the report says specifically about Thailand. I have highlighted the relevant section that addresses the “head in the sand†comment that made me do the 2 minutes of research that got me the report. I think it is a pretty accurate summation of the pluses and minuses of Thai tourism industry. I certainly agree with the negative issues they raise, particularly the environmental sustainability. Thailand is ranked just behind Malaysia in the region at 8th place and 39th overall, up three places since last year. It is endowed with rich natural resources and a strong affinity for Travel & Tourism (ranked 24th and 22nd, respectively), with a very friendly attitude of the population toward tourists (ranked 13th).This is buttressed by the sector’s strong prioritization by the government (ranked 12th) with, similar to Malaysia, excellent destination-marketing campaigns and good price competitiveness. However, some weaknesses remain: despite the prioritization of the sector by the government, some aspects of the regulatory environment â€â€such as stringent foreign ownership restrictions, visa restrictions for many travelers, and the long time required for starting a business in the countryâ€â€are not particularly conducive to developing the sector (ranked 62nd). In addition, given the importance of the natural environment for the country’s tourism, environmental sustainability should be a greater priority (ranked 99th). Here's the link to the whole report. Link I think I'll stop now, I made my point in an off topic discussion on how Vietnam was soon to take over Thailand in both rice exports and tourism. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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