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The Prediction Thread


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Oddly it also supports my original statement, that the oceans aren't level at all, but rather at different heights for different reasons.


In Tahiti I see bugger all tides, where as in FSM and Palau I see far more tidal activity


Yes, it would seem that the normal levels of the oceans differ for reasons noted above and elsewhere. It would be interesting to see what effect any sea level rise has on islands, in isolation of other effects, and what that rise actually is, with islands coming and going all the time. A fixed point, referenced by geostationary stationary satellites perhaps. As it is, even the study noted above notes that there are a plethora of interrelated influences that may or may not cause islands to appear or vanish.


On a side note, where I slowly rot in the wasteland, nearby there is a small sheltered bay. In my childhood and teens I spent a lot of time there. As a kid, playing in the shallow waters, a safe place to be. As a teenager, doing the same, at night with girlies. Anyway, the other day, there was a King Tide and the water came up to the car park and nearly to the road via a small creek. There were people standing around taking pictures of the water, like Global Warming had all come at once.


Two points I'll make.


One - I used to play in the creek as a kid and I can clearly remember water reaching similar levels 45~50 years ago.


Two - The folk taking photos, didn't hang around to see the other end of the King Tide where the water went far out, so far that marine life, not normally seen, could be examined in the drying seabed and boats on the shallower moorings listed as their keels found land.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 3 weeks later...

A famous part of Antarctica is getting colder — but climate skeptics shouldn’t get too excited,,,


I won't post the whole thing here - you can read it at https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/20/the-antarctic-peninsula-is-cooling-but-climate-skeptics-shouldnt-get-too-excited/


My (forgot the word) to post it here is to demonstrate, that when things are warming "it's global warming" and the they are cooling "it's natural variability". Read into that what you will.


Where I am it's been very naturally variable recently, I can't wait for Summer.

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Cupola articles on Antartica etc


the first - "Uni professors are making biased claims about climate change" at http://community.scoop.co.nz/2016/07/uni-professors-are-making-biased-claims-about-climate-change/ ,


is worth a look for the three examples in the second part of the article that have some facts.


The second is a more general read "Antarctica's temporary cooling phase - what does it mean?" at http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/82284682/antarcticas-temporary-cooling-phase--what-does-it-mean


and despite showing not much warming if any, ends with "The message is that this is not a surprise, that amplified warming of Antarctica is expected and is predicted as greenhouse concentrations increase."

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  • 7 months later...

And this just in..... Half of Arctic sea ice decline due to natural causes, says new study


A new study has found that as much as half of the decline in Arctic sea ice over the last several decades was due to natural causes, rather than human interaction.


Although human interaction is still a major factor in the decline, the study shows the sea ice is less sensitive to our interactions than initially thought.....



More at the link - http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11817336


And anyway, I sold my V12 Merc six years ago, so there...

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I predict this won't happen



Elon Musk has promised to solve ongoing power problems in the state of South Australia by committing to build a 100MW battery storage farm, and promising that if he couldn’t provide the system within 100 days, he would give it to the state for free.

The Tesla CEO made the promise on Twitter, replying to Atlassian CEO and Australian billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes. The conversation came after similar remarks from Lyndon Rive, Tesla’s vice president for energy products, who said earlier in the week that his company would commit to solving South Australia’s energy issues with 100 to 300 megawatt-hours of battery storage. Like Musk, Rive said Tesla could install the required batteries within 100 days. "We don't have 300MWh sitting there ready to go,†he said, “but I'll make sure there are.â€

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You're the statistician, that seems to be saying 50% of ice melt due to human interaction. Not what you want said?


Darls, whilst I appear to take a view opposite to the Anthropogenic Global Warming Evangelists, and this gets me branded as a 'Denier' (note the religious and emotive terminology), I am actually possessed of more of a scientific bent, and what I often note, in posting the stuff I do, is information that either contradicts or casts doubt on rabid media reports.


The article, in my post above, is interesting because the jist is, that we can look at the science involved and see that the truth has moved from - all of the decline in Arctic sea ice over the last several decades was due to man - to - as much as half of the decline in Arctic sea ice over the last several decades was due to natural causes.


This is not an opinion, nor a headline by a scientifically ignorant sub editor somewhere.


This is interesting.


Vis Eion Musk - I dont, know if he's honest, likely he is not. But he is also interesting, whether or not one agrees with what or how or why he is doing what he's doing.


Certainly he's is less evil than the likes of Uber and Air BnB who seem to be making shitloads of money by removing the worker and the worker's rights from their businesses.

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