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The Prediction Thread


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  • 2 weeks later...

“On September 11 of this year, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean reached its annual minimum. 2015’s minimum was the fourth-smallest ever recorded, and it nearly tied with the third-smallest on record. Which makes a certain amount of sense: In the satellite era, the ten worst years for Arctic sea ice have been the last ten.â€



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That's a great visualisation. Certainly shows a trend over 30 odd years.


As this is a prediction thread I'll won't argue the toss, I'll wait for the future to see if the trend is born out.


I'll make two points for later reference:


0.51 °C in 30 years.


I'd like to see that same visualisation over 500 years from about 1300 to about 1850.

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I'm not arguing that Solar activity has any effect on Global Warming. Just posting these graphs to provide reference point for future observations.





Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. Present period is on right. Values since 1900 not shown.





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  • 5 weeks later...

So now they're saying that global warming has prevented sudden early onset ice age :)


They being = researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research near Berlin - published in Nature





Global warming caused by fossil fuel emissions is blamed by scientists for intensifying storms, raising sea levels and prolonging droughts.


Now there's growing evidence of a positive effect: we may have delayed the next ice age by 100,000 years or more.


The conditions necessary for the onset of a new ice age were narrowly missed at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s, researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research near Berlin wrote Wednesday in the journal Nature.


Since then, rising emissions of heat-trapping CO2 from burning oil, coal and gas have made the spread of the world's ice sheets even less likely, they said.


"This study further confirms what we've suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has cancelled the next ice age," said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England who wasn't involved in the research. "Humans now effectively control the climate of the planet."


The study reveals new findings on the relationship between insolation, a measure of the Sun's energy reaching the planet, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the spread of ice sheets that characterize an ice age.


The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the past eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur.


The scientists found that even without further output of heat-trapping gases, the next ice age probably wouldn't set in for another 50,000 years. That would make the current so-called interglacial period "unusually long," according to the lead author, Andrey Ganopolski.


"However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years," which would mean the next one probably won't start for 100,000 years, he said.



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  • 1 month later...

On the melting glaciers etc causing sea level rise...



Are glacial ice streams contributing to the rise of ocean levels?


A new study of an ancient ice sheet shows that even as the Earth warmed, the amount of ice lost through its ice streams decreased, which could mean ice streams pose less of a threat to ocean level rise than was previously thought.


A study released Wednesday in the journal Nature suggests that the recent thinning behavior of ice streams in some of the world's largest glaciers may not point to as grim a climate scenario as was once thought.


Ice streams, or fast-moving regions of massive ice sheets – glaciers larger than 19,000 square miles – have become a cause for concern in recent years as their retreat in the world's only major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctic has been linked to sea level rise. But the new study may show that ice streams will have less of an impact on ice sheet deglaciation over time....


more at http://www.csmonitor...of-ocean-levels


hang on, I thought we were gonna see sea level rise 60 metres by next year?


just shows how modelling is pretty inaccurate

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Global energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide stalled in 2014


Preliminary IEA data point to emissions decoupling from economic growth for the first time in 40 years


Preliminary data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that global emissions of carbon dioxide from the energy sector stalled in 2014, marking the first time in 40 years in which there was a halt or reduction in emissions of the greenhouse gas that was not tied to an economic downturn.




Global emissions of carbon dioxide stood at 32.3 billion tonnes in 2014, unchanged from the preceding year. The IEA data suggest that efforts to mitigate climate change may be having a more pronounced effect on emissions than had previously been thought.


or the levels of CO2 may vary less dependently on humans than previously thought...




hang on, I though that the world was on a runaway train, at breakneck speed, pumping ever increasing amounts of CO2 into the air? Now it's not? What are we paying these people for?

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