Flashermac Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 Only Barack Obama can defeat Barack Obama at this point. Still, the Dems are experts at losing "sure thing" elections. p.s. Maybe they could simplify things by having Obama pick McCain as his VP running mate, and McCain picking Obama as his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driftwood Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 Only Barack Obama can defeat Barack Obama at this point. Still, the Dems are experts at losing "sure thing" elections. I have to agree, right now Intrade has a 65% chance of an Obama win. As far as losing a sure thing, Obama has the charisma that Gore and Kerry lacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogueyam Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 Obama has the charisma that Gore and Kerry lacked. Barackians extoll his "charisma" because he has nothing else but true charisma sells itself. As people get used to Bambi the man, their estimation of his charm plummets. November is four long months away. I predict that by the time we get to the 'Rat Convention, Bambi's "Triumph of the Hope" acceptance speech at Invesco Field is going to come across as pure pomposity and hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driftwood Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 As far as losing a sure thing, Obama has the charisma that Gore and Kerry lacked. Barackians extoll his "charisma" because he has nothing else but true charisma sells itself. I was trying to address losing as a sure thing. I'm definitely not a Barackian but Obama is able to connect with people where Gore and Kerry really couldn't. And amongst the undecided, in the center voters his "charisma" IS selling itself. If McCain can't come up something better than his war record and being a POW, which are the ONLY ads I've seen him run on tv so far, he will lose. People are scared about the future and with McCain's age being an issue, the last thing he needs to be do is contently reminding people about his glory days 35-40 ago. Acknowledge it and be proud of it, but look to the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 What could save Obama is the youth vote, assuming they get off their skateboards, pull their pants up, and make it to the polls. Otherwise, I'd say forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangkoktraveler Posted July 12, 2008 Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 There is always the possibility that GWB will come out with another Bin Laden video and steal the action in November. If you remember, the Patriot Act appeared as if precipitated from thin air so we can suspect something more intensive then the Patriot Act is already printed and waiting for distribution. GWB will continue to beat his breast as he stirs shit up so as to go to war with Iran. He probably already has his hand in a cookie jar as to how he is going to pay for that war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayT Posted July 12, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2008 Tsk, tsk. Just because the author may suck on frog legs, smell like a skunk, and reek of arrogance doesn't mean that he's a complete fuckwit. Do you think perchance that any of his reasons have merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashermac Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Glow Fading? The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only 3 points. What a difference a few weeks can make. A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent. Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage. More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent. Read on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayT Posted July 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 The media notwithstanding, many experienced political pundits pay very little attention to polls, especially national polls. In the general election it's all about the states and who can win enough "swing states" to get the necessary 270 electoral votes. A point that the OP was aware of: "Add that the majority of these states tend to show historical preferences for one party or the other, making full-on campaigning useless. The logical conclusion has been that Obama's campaign should concentrate on just 15, 18, maybe 20 swing states, where the idea is to shift a few thousand votes." According to the nonpartisan Web site, realclearpolitics.com, there are actually 11 swing states that Obama needs to concentrate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Tsk, tsk. Just because the author may suck on frog legs, smell like a skunk, and reek of arrogance doesn't mean that he's a complete fuckwit. Do you think perchance that any of his reasons have merit? Yeah, but it's all been said already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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