Thailand seems to be racing to a point of no return

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post reports ANOTHER grenade attack on PAD at 2am today, with one dead and 20 wounded. Once again an M-79 grenade. Grenade attacks three nights in a row, but nothing done though ... TIT.

 

An M-79 is a shoulder fired military weapon, not the sort of thing ordinary folks can easily get their hands on. Fires a 40mm HE round (or smoke, CS gas and WP grenades). Muzzle velocity 250 feet per second, range 300 meters. (You don't forget some things.)

 

<< PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang said the grenade was launched from the headquarters of the Bangkok Metropolitan Police, about 150 metres away.

 

"The grenade was fired from the (police) headquarters. This proves the attackers were government security forces or bad guys who are supported by the government," he told about 2,000 PAD members from the stage at Government House. >>

 

 

[Torneyboy]

Sure looks that way ...sadly

[Faustian]

Just nuts. The rule of law reduced to, well, nothing/a farce. The police attacking and killing their own people. No charges, no responsibility.

 

Sickening.

[Gadfly]

I also don't see how Thailand gets out of this mess. Those driving it seem to only have their own interests in mind. But you can now see how this happened.

 

In one corner, you have Thaksin and his supporters. Thaksin was extremely corrupt and vile, but he is and was extremely shrewd. He identified and took advantage of a tremendous opportunity in Thai politics - the poor of the north and Issan that always get left out when the political goodies are divided up by the elites based in Bangkok. He built a tremendously effectively political network in the poor rural areas that continues to operate to this day and he still enjoys support in the rural areas.

 

In the other corner you have PAD. The PAD leadership has now essentially come out and said the poor rural are too stupid to make decisions for themseleves. They are, at the leadership level, elitists, who care much more about their own personal (and quite selfish) vested interests than what is best for Thailand.

 

I have met some of these guys before - shortly after the 1997 financial crisis. They identified what is best for Thailand as what is best for them. They got away with it for decades. When I first came here in 1994, there biggest complaint against foreign investors was that we paid the Thais too much and we're stealing their workers.

 

That's right. They talked about their workers as if they owned them, and were really pissed if identified a good accountant or office manager and hired here by offering to pay her or him a decent wage. This called a new form of colonialism.

 

Incidentally, I was writing about this, to put it charitably, paternalistic attitude years ago, so this is not hindsight. What I didn't recognize but Thaksin did was that that this legitimate resentment of the rural masses could be mobilized to advance the political and business interests of a shrewd Thai politician.

 

Recall how Thaksin started? He was supporting Thai businesses against predatory foriengors after the 1997 financial crisis, but he quicky dropped them after getting into power. He also supported the social conservatives and those who were genuinely concerned about the plight of the poor in Thailand.

 

He quickly learned that he could stay in power without his original supporters in the elite by delivering to the poor. Build a new road or school in a poor rural area of Thailand, and the people remember. You also get the support of the local warlords with rigged bidding where the cost exceeds the value of school or new road by several times and you can use the excess to buy the support of the local warlords and add a bit to your own war chest.

 

Do this on big projects as well, like the new airport, loans to the Burmese government, portalnet (owned by Thaksin's sister) and the other scandals associated with Thaksin's regimie. The vested elite don't like it because (a) they are cutting out of the goodies and ( its embarassing.

 

Those truly interested in Thailand's future

don't like it either, and rally with PAD against Thaksin, but soon have doubts about PAD. What a mess.

 

Now here is my $64,000 question - who is supporting PAD? It's easy to figure out who supports the Thaksin red shirt wearing mobsters, but where is the money comming to support the PAD mobsters?

 

And why are the security forces sitting on their sidelines waiting to see how this all pans out.

 

There is more than meets the eye, and much of that simply cannot be discussed in Thailand.

 

[..]

"but where is the money comming to support the PAD"

 

Gaddie, I think you know the answer to this already. Hint: I can't tell you here if you haven't figured it out yet...

 

Chgeers,

SD

[khunsanuk]

Hi,

 

I think many here will know the answer, but as you said, let's not go there.

 

Sanuk!

 

[Flashermac]

Sondhi is wealthy. Chamlong is too, when it comes down to it. That's enough money right there.

 

 

[..]

To be sure.

 

Cheers,

SD

[Flashermac]

Sonthi is like a lover spurned. He started out in cahoots with Mr T, then got cut out of the deal. It's personal with him.

 

 

[Gadfly]

"I think many here will know the answer, but as you said, let's not go there." Which is exactly why I posed this as a question rather than a statement. I agree that we should't go there.

 

If you understood what I was alluding to, I think you will understand the gravity of the situation and why I just don't see a way out. I guess there is not much to say about it than that. Well a few things about Sondhi and Chamlong can be said.

 

Sondhi was a major Thaksin supporter at the beginning. He was also really bad news from before Thaksin. Indeed, Sohndi's tremedously strong support of Thaksin made me extra wary of Thaksin from the outset.

 

We sometimes forget that many of the biggest opposition leaders of PAD were also the biggest supporters of Thaksin at the beginning.

 

As for Chamlong, a taxi driver I met on Friday said it best: "Whenever he gets involved, people die."