Coss Posted May 16, 2010 Report Share Posted May 16, 2010 This is a bit of a tangent, but I reckon there are some on this board who know things. So the questions are: If the current troubles in Thailand are not relatively quickly over and similar violence breaks out in the provinces with no short term end in sight, what will be the effect on neighbouring countries? And what would neighbouring countries actions likely be? And how would Thailand be affected? Looking for some long term and wide level analysis. Coss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bust Posted May 16, 2010 Report Share Posted May 16, 2010 Yeah they could all re-locate to Burma. Seriously though I think many neighbouring countries will be having a quiet chuckle about all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozpharlap Posted May 16, 2010 Report Share Posted May 16, 2010 Yeah they could all re-locate to Burma. Seriously though I think many neighbouring countries will be having a quiet chuckle about all this. Seriously, I could not imagine a reasonable thinking business men, wised up as to what are the fundamental basics of the recent conflict in Thailand taking his business to Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia or even Vietnam (which still is a communist state). Now China, there is a viable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shygye Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 The other countries would benefit from uncertainty in Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobbledonk Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 Given the fun and games on the border, I doubt that the Cambodians are having too many sleepless nights. I cant see any point where Thai 'rebels' would want to start crossing borders and trying to incite the locals to join their cause - this isnt the Afghan-Pakistani border, and this isnt a fight based on religious fundamentalism. Exactly what Laos, Burma or Cambodia would make by destabilising an industrial powerhouse is somewhat murky, IMO - settling old scores only goes so far. Its interesting, to me anyway, that many of the countries around Thailand were embroiled in their own chaos for many years while Thailand was the embodiment of the peace and harmony (at least on the surface) that a Buddhist country should be. The wheel would seem to have turned. I posted elsewhere that I was deeply ashamed the first time I went to PP and thought about how the world did nothing while Pol Pot slaughtered the relatives of so many of the people around me, and appalled that Thailand gave him safe haven when the Vietnamese finally did what no one else would. Thailand remained an oasis while American bombs rained down on Laos and Cambodia in the late 60s : treading the middle path meant that the Kingdom didnt have to suffer. If Buddhism teaches that all life is suffering, perhaps the Thai middle class are about to be introduced to a little of that reality. You simply cant have a government telling people not to front up to work in Bangkok and expect the economy to roll on unhindered. Someone posted that they were unhappy about the money changers being closed - imagine walking out of your hotel to find everything closed, even the 7/11s. Alarmist ? Sure, but how many of thought it would reach the stage it has back when the march was first announced way back in March ? If this does escalate to civil war, and that is still difficult to imagine even with the body count at over 140, I doubt that it will go beyond any of Thailand's borders. Jihadists and police have been killing one another for years in the South without a single bomb blast, AFAIK, in Bangkok. If the only people wearing Red Shirts were from Isaan, perhaps Abhisit could ask Laos to take those provinces back - I dont think its as simple (!) as that. If the army does manage to get the Red Shirts to go home, how long before the same issues come to a head once more ? Thaksin clearly gave Thailand's poor the impression that he was prepared to help them - whether the reality matched the rhetoric isnt the point - if the current government doesnt acknowledge that things need to change, their opposition will continue to foster dissent. For those who predicted it would all fizzle out after a week of people waving banners and shouting slogans out in the backblocks of Bangkok, I'd make sure I had an overnight bag packed and enough cash (baht+your currency of choice) to get out of the country. Might even be time to head to Nong Khai for a few beers with Nervous God while you work on the raft for the emergency river crossing. That border seemed fairly leaky to me and I wouldnt want to be in the line with half of Udon trying to get out of Thailand. Getting to Subarnapoom would be chaos incarnate - an inadvertent taxi 'blockade' as drivers filled their pockets with 3000+ baht fares. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardKing Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 Yeah they could all re-locate to Burma. Seriously though I think many neighbouring countries will be having a quiet chuckle about all this. Seriously' date=' I could not imagine a reasonable thinking business men, wised up as to what are the fundamental basics of the recent conflict in Thailand taking his business to Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia or even Vietnam (which still is a communist state). Now China, there is a viable option.[/quote'] Bwhahahah! No! Malaysia or Singapore. Those are viable options. And yes, both being explored by me. Meetings at SIN embassy tomorrow in fact to see how much this is gonna hurt. If the buffaloes want to run Thailand, it'll become another PI -- they'll wish to be Indonesia. I hate the PI and will not locate a biz there. LoS = Angeles City. A move is imminent methinks. I'll leave LoS to the skint sexpats and their balloon chasing. Always a good biz plan LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumsoda Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 Will you sell your 360 degree view condo on Suk & 31.....or lease it out??? I'm looking for something with a decent lap pool....maybe we can do a deal??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardKing Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 It's your's mate... Shit'll be worth $0.10 on the dollar, so just give it away to friends is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobbledonk Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 OK, I might have walked in on an in-joke here, but is it realistic to relocate to Sillypore ? I thought they had their hands full simply trying to house the people who were actually born on the island ..... Malaysia is my dream, but I have no idea what it would be like to try to run any form of business there. The other half of that dream is not having to worry about things like making a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous God Posted May 17, 2010 Report Share Posted May 17, 2010 Sillypore loves people moving there, as does KL. Both cities I'd be happy to live in (Singapore again) Both have booze to buy all hours (expensive though) and bars and clubs that are great fun open till dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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