Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

[Coss]

A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.

 

The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.

 

The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.

 

The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.

 

The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.

 

Their means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.

 

One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.

 

At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the "utility" of speaking one instead of another.

 

"The idea is pretty simple," said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.

 

"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.

 

"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."

 

 

Some of the census data the team used date from the 19th century

Dr Wiener continued: "In a large number of modern secular democracies, there's been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%."

 

The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the "non-religious" category.

 

They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.

 

And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.

 

However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a "network structure" more representative of the one at work in the world.

 

"Obviously we don't really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society," he said.

 

However, he told BBC News that he thought it was "a suggestive result".

 

"It's interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.

 

"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out."

 

 

[color:blue]Viva la rationaliste[/color]

 

 

[shygye]

Amen

[khunsanuk]

Hi,

 

"A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers."

 

Good! We could do with it getting extinct in all countries.

 

Sanuk!

 

[unit731]

What the Hell is this story about?

[Flashermac]

 

Very bizarre conclusion in the article. "Religion" is not about to become extinct, but church membership is. I know few people in the States who regularly attend church or even belong to one, but if you asked them their religion they would automatically respond Christian - and really mean it. I'd say what is happening is that belief is becoming more personal. People don't feel they need a priest or minister telling them what to think or believe. They can decide for themselves. But this doesn't mean they are all suddenly becoming atheists. Religious influence is definitely declining, but that is all that can be concluded.

 

 

 

[Flashermac]

What the Hell is this story about?

 

 

It makes a statement about religion, then proceeds to talk about languages and the methodology or something and sort of forgets about the original statement. Really well organised - not!

 

 

[pasathai1]

how much did they charge for this study ( by the word no doubt)

[dave32]

So, religion is set for extinction in Ireland.

 

 

.....

 

uhhhhhh.

 

 

Ahem. I'm sorry. Trying to keep it in.

 

(I'm an atheist. Also a realist).

 

 

[Steve]

While I can certainly see why some folks would want religion extinct from countries such as the U.S., Ireland, pretty much all middle eastern countries, I don't see the big deal for wanting it extinct from some of the countries on the list. Canada? Finland? These and other countries on the list are peaceful.

It seems some want religion to be extinct just because its religion.

What's done in the name of relgion in some countries has devastating effects. I'd agree with that. But the whole scale removal in places relgion has done no harm doesn't quite make sense to me.

Its the same reasonsing with the removal of guns. Guns exist aplenty in some countries with very low crime rates and extremely low gun crime rates. So, why wish guns to be removed or banned from countries where it has done no harm? Same with religion?

It seems some cultures can handle some things and some can't. Its not the thing it can't handle, the problem to me seems the culture.

Using that line of logic, then something in a culture that has done harm should be removed from all nations.

Voting, to some people on here, have not served America or the world well, so lets ban voting everywhere. I don't see any difference between that line of thought and wanting religion or guns banned in America and the rest of the world.

 

[dave32]

This is my .02. Just opinion --> Religion is an easy and convenient target. Because it's intertwined with every part of life where it's strong, it's easy to identify it's influence where you see atrocity.

 

I am very critical of religion myself, especially of the evangelical varietal -- but that said, it's also easy to overlook the good religion does or has done.

 

It is a more secular world and they (world religions) are in a more fierce confrontation with science now in reference to the supernatural. I would like to see religions evolve a little, but not become extinct. I think fundamentally, most people have a need for the 'sacred' in their lives, and leaving a vacuum there can be a bad thing. I disagree with some of the anti-religion crusaders that have come to prominence (Dawkins, Hitchens)... a little bit.