Middle East crisis.

[McBif]

Let's see...

 

Arab population: 350,000,000

Israeli population: 6,000,000 (including 1,500,000 Arabs)

 

Arab oil revenues 2006 (approx): $300 billion

Israeli govt budget 2006: $50 billion

US grants to Israel 2006: $1.3 billion

 

And I'm not even including the main Muslim player in today's circus: Iran.

 

Israel vs Arabs wars: 4-0 for Israel

 

It's just not fair I tellya!

 

How much imagination does it take to realize what the Arabs' problem is?

[chuckwoww]

How much imagination? Not much. All you have to do is imagine an Arab colony in somewhere like Rhode Island. Armed to the teeth with nuclear bombs and an unlimited supply of funds. I bet that would be popular with the rest of America.

[chuckwoww]

chocolat steve said:

The people chose Hamas so I think all should accept them as the legit government no matter how nasty they act. I think though governing will prove harder than sending suicide bombers.

Once you have to answer to the 'bread and butter' issues of every day folks, you find that you have to compromise and change to retain power.

They'll find that the people aren't going to accept Israel for the reasons why there are no jobs, and the roads aren't paved and the price of bread in the market.

 

You're still not quite there Steve. Hamas got elected BECAUSE Palestinians got tired of negotiations. Same reason the Israelis built the wall. We're into a new phase now. The peace process is dead. Even Bush has figured that out.

 

I think Plan B was to spread democracy (read Israel friendly) governments throughout the region. That plan seems to have hit some snags. But I'm sure they'll keep trying.

[Steve]

Chcukwoww, thanks for your comments. The 'arab street' as its known doesn't want to go to war with Israel? The palestinians have gotten a lot more autonomy over the last few years and at the end of the day, they are going to worry more about jobs, food, etc. than Israel.

 

Hamas may have gotten elected because the process is dead but they'll still have to deal with the same issues that Blair, Bush and Thaksin have to deal with.

 

The Iranians clamored for the ayatollah to take over and they soon found out that running a mosque doesn't prepare you to running a modern economy and the populace got fed up with it and were moving toward trying to normalize relations with America and the west...until we gave them a reason not to.

 

Hamas got a lot of play out of providing charity and services to the people. It wasn't just about the peace process. Arafat and his people was well known for being corrupt and stealing the money he got from the west. They were simply not trusted. I will disagree that it was primarily the peace process. They were robbing the people blind and the people had no faith in them. Hamas did a lot of things to build goodwill, such as clinics, charities, etc. Now they are expecting to deliver that on a larger scale. What happens when they can't?

[Steve]

Israel has the bomb. Iran gets the bomb and they'll come to the same realization that America and the USSR does and that is the MAD (mutual assured destruction) principle. Furthermore, the Saudis and other middle east nations that the Iranians despise know that if Iran is crazy enough to get the bomb and try to use it on Israel, Israel may just decide that not only Tehran but Riyad, Mecca and the whole kitten kaboodle (wow, can't beleive I used that term! :: ) is gone.

 

The house of Saud are shitting themselves at the idea of Iran having the bomb. The ayatollahs don't think the Saudi royal family are good stewards of the holy cities and may threaten them to wrest control of it.

[chuckwoww]

Steve, I appreciate your rational, positive, mid-Western approach to the Middle East problems. Unfortunately we are dealing here with people who think they are God's Chosen and others who believe in martyrdom and think nothing of blowing themselves up.

 

Sure there are ordinary folks there who just want to get on with their lives. It's the other clowns who make the running.

 

I have no idea how this will play out. I suppose it will either all implode or there will be some kind of compromise solution and everybody will make nice for awhile until the next flare up. Either way I'm glad I don't live there.

[Steve]

chuckwoww said:

Don't kid yourself Egypt is such a shining example. A change of government there and things could change fast.

 

The present government of the Palestinians IS Hamas. They got elected on an anti-Israel ticket. They have agreed in principle to recognize Israel but only under conditions which the Israelis won't accept.

 

Control their fringe elements as well as Hezbullah. You're right about Egypt but the point is that Egypt and Irsael worked things out and its been working.

 

My personal opinion is that parts of the middle east isnt' ready for democrazy. They are largely in part tribal and operate under centuries old customs that doesn't lend itself to democracy....yet. The rule of law as we know it in the west isn't accepted as such in areas of the middle east. You harm my sister and I call the police and have you tried. Over there you find the guy and do kill the bastard and bring back honor to your family. A cultural change shift will have to happen and I don't think large portions are ready for it.

[chuckwoww]

chocolat steve said:

chuckwoww said:

Don't kid yourself Egypt is such a shining example. A change of government there and things could change fast.

 

The present government of the Palestinians IS Hamas. They got elected on an anti-Israel ticket. They have agreed in principle to recognize Israel but only under conditions which the Israelis won't accept.

 

Control their fringe elements as well as Hezbullah. You're right about Egypt but the point is that Egypt and Irsael worked things out and its been working.

 

My personal opinion is that parts of the middle east isnt' ready for democrazy. They are largely in part tribal and operate under centuries old customs that doesn't lend itself to democracy....yet. The rule of law as we know it in the west isn't accepted as such in areas of the middle east. You harm my sister and I call the police and have you tried. Over there you find the guy and do kill the bastard and bring back honor to your family. A cultural change shift will have to happen and I don't think large portions are ready for it.

 

Precisely. The whole thing is based on tribalism. Including Israel. The Israelis have one foot in the West and one in the Middle East. To us they look like a modern democracy but if you look closely you'll find it's all based on tribalism and race. They understand Arabs very well. Arabs are proud emotional people. Can be incredibly hospitable, can be vengeful.

 

Can Arabs and Israelis co-exist peacefully? My feeling is no. There is too much distrust.

 

Egypt could turn on a dime. Of course they'd be stupid to get into a war with Israel. One bomb on the Aswan dam and it would be game over.

 

A cultural shift? That of course would be the American solution. Come on you guys, be nice, forgive and forget, have a beer, watch a little TV, help yourself to the Nachos. Dream on.

 

Maybe over time things could change. Iraq is the test case. If the US can turn that country into a stable democracy then the rest should follow. Going to be a tough job though. Either way I think US troops will be there for the foreseeable future. Even if the Democrats win.

[MaiLuk]

This is not a reply to anyone.

 

The israeli view:

 

Pull out of Gaza unilaterally. No agreement or concession obtained from the other side, just do it. Result: Hamas fires rockets into israel from Gaza. Then gets elected by the palestinians.

 

Pull out of Lebanon unilaterally. No agreement or concession obtained from the other side. Result: Over the last 5 years hezbollah fires 1000 rockets into israel.

 

So israel scratches its head for awhile, hoping things get better. They don't get better. So they attack.

 

World leaders say: Jews, your response is not proportional.

 

Question: If Hezbollah had the ability to do it, and fired rockets into London, or Paris, or Berlin, or Moscow, I suspect the people living France, England, Germany or Russia would quickly change their governments if their leaders were stupid enough to sit around thinking about a proportional response.

[Steve]

Thanks Chuckwoww and I'd be remiss if I didn't credit the forum with showing a great amount of mutual respect for each other. This topic is a powder keg and I'm sure KS and the mods have their fingers on the button awaiting the explosion that may happen.

 

You know what will get rid of most of the fighting? Good old fashion prosperity. The lot of these guys are poor and have nothing to live for. Trust me, I've seen it here with folks that think a middle class life is not attainable. You're a bit more unwilling to blow yourself up when your pocket and belly are getting fatter. Its only a tiny majority that are willing to be suicide bombers. The arab street suppor them but I think they have a better you than me, lline of thinking about it all. Just a guess on my part, but the vast majority of families in Jordan, Syria, Yemen or Saudi Arabia wouldn't want their sons to go to Iraq and blow himself up on some highway that has a U.S. convoy on it.

 

You know why the mafia mob hasn't had any major wars between families since the '60s? Its bad for business and business wins out over everything. All killings have almost exclusively been inter family disputes.

 

Same can happen in the middle east. The arab traders and middle men that deal with their Israeli counterparts are against any kind of escalation because they have a financial interest. They hate Israel as much as the next guy but not to the point where its going to disrupt business.

 

Israel is a small part though. The problems in Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia aren't about Israel. Its local as in the case of Egypt, international as in the case of Iran or plain old corruption and nepotism as in the case of the Saudis. bin Laden didn't start talking about Israel till very late in the game. He hardly talked about them until recently as if he'd even accepted that they were now a permanent part of the landscape. His main issue was American presence in the holy lands. Egypt's fundamentalist movement is about their government not Israel. We, and I mean not only the U.S. but the west collectively, need to leave the region and stop depending on it for our economies. Take away that dependence as I have been saying and they start to shit themselves. You think Iran wants the U.S. to ween itself off oil? If the G8 have a concerted effort to do it, India and China have no choice but to go along because their economies are dependent on the west. Russia is the only G8 nation that would be mortified of the prospect.

 

A planned transition with timetables and goals can be done. Yes, it will hurt and yes, there will be a temporary economic loss but the pain can be less severe if its orderly. Once everyone sees a plan in place, they'll all come along.

 

Imagine the mid east without oil to sell? They may start a holy war to force us back on the stuff. ::