Middle East crisis.

[Nervous_Dog]

<<Precisely. The whole thing is based on tribalism. Including Israel.>>

 

And the arabs, dont forget the arab nations dislike each other almost as much as israel. This point seems often to be forgotten and we lump them all together as "ARABS" whereas in fact they are all seperate nations, who also didn;t help the palastinians, kept them in aweful camps for 20 years, start wars MORE regularly on wach other than israil.

 

Problem is we forget that and dont build it into the equation too often

 

DOG

[MaiLuk]

CS said: >>Israel has the bomb. Iran gets the bomb and they'll come to the same realization that America and the USSR does and that is the MAD (mutual assured destruction) principle.<<

 

 

One big problem is perception of iran. There is a perception that the mullahs might seek martyrdom.

 

I remember as a kid thinking the soviets could launch at any minute. Even heard stories about how the soviets calculated they could survive the counterattack. Therefore those crazy soviets just might try a first launch.

 

The cold war arms race was all abouit perception. Theirs and ours. And the complex but that is another issue.

[Steve]

Iranians aren't even arabs.

[Steve]

I recall reading an article about the 'nuclear club'. The gist of the article said that the more recent countries to have the nuke bomb, get the bomb they realize the immense responsibility and show more constraint than they thought they and others thought they would have shown otherwise. Its sobering. On an individual level its like getting your first gun. You grow up seeing movies and think yeah, if I had a gun, I'd be the man and when you get one you are very reluctant to use it.

As nutty as Jung II is, he can blow up Seoul at any time and hasn't done it. Pakistan and India as well.

 

I'd rather not find out, but I suspect that Iran would be the same. The mullahs aren't stupid. They may 'say' they want immortality but they know that if they use it, there would be no Iran left. Suicide bombers kill themselves so that their families and religion will reap the long term benefits. There is no one left to practice the relgion if they do use it. No muslim country would risk the possibility of Mecca or Medina leveled. And that is precisely what would happen if it all kicks off. Israel's back is to the wall. There is no place to go. They have a bunker mentality in things like this. If they are going to go, they'll make damned sure that Mecca and the capitals of the mid east won't be any good to anyone for the next 10k years. or however long the half life of plutonium is.

[chuckwoww]

Steve...your idea that economics can solve the problem may have been true at one time but I think the mess has got too big now. There are too many spoilers (settlers and terrorists). Don't forget too that a viable, successful Palestinian state isn't really in Israel's best interests.

[Steve]

Maybe I'm more idealist than pragmatist then.

[McBif]

chocolat steve said:

 

Hamas got a lot of play out of providing charity and services to the people. It wasn't just about the peace process. Arafat and his people was well known for being corrupt and stealing the money he got from the west. They were simply not trusted. I will disagree that it was primarily the peace process. They were robbing the people blind and the people had no faith in them. Hamas did a lot of things to build goodwill, such as clinics, charities, etc. Now they are expecting to deliver that on a larger scale. What happens when they can't?

 

Dead right, CS. Just as the NSDAP gained a ton of credit before their 1933 electoral victory runnning daycares, soup kitchens, national insurance policies etc., Hamas benefited as the uncorrupted, caring outsiders. But in both cases it was simply making a virtue out of necessity.

 

One big difference though is that Hamas was more surprised than anybody with the results of the elections. What to do now? It's one thing to yap - look at us! - but another to take responsibilty.

 

I don't think they're interested or capable of running a state (other than skimming off the money that was formerly going to Fatah), and hence the immediate offensive against Israel. The best and brightest Palestinian Arabs got the fuck out long ago. What sort of people stay in refugee camps for 58 years? This is beyond belief! What's left is the worst and dimmest.

 

The average age of the Palestinian Arabs is 15 years-old or something, all raised in a death cult.

 

For me, the prisoner exchange ratios are all I have to know about who is bad and who is worse in the conflict: stuff like two Israeli hostages traded for 400 Arabs. I think this shows quite clearly the value put on lives by the two sides.

[chuckwoww]

chocolat steve said:

Maybe I'm more idealist than pragmatist then.

 

Or maybe I'm just too cynical. ::

[chuckwoww]

McBif said:

 

I don't think they're interested or capable of running a state (other than skimming off the money that was formerly going to Fatah), and hence the immediate offensive against Israel. The best and brightest Palestinian Arabs got the fuck out long ago. What sort of people stay in refugee camps for 58 years? This is beyond belief! What's left is the worst and dimmest.

 

 

True. The best and brightest Palestinians left so they could send money back to their families.

 

And Hamas don't have to worry about money anymore. Israel and the US have shut the banks down. That'll teach the evil bastards.

[Flashermac]

Even so, the NDSAP never got more than about 32% of the vote. Hitler got in on a coalition government. Hamas won a clear victory. Still, I hardly think it was a vote for violence.