No more Ms Nice Guy

[Old Hippie]

It might also be that we are just sick of the same old games, and see where the "Christian" leaders have gotten us, and thus don't care what religion the guy is, as long as he is NOT more of the same...?

[rogueyam]

Obama polls well against McCain. What will hurt McCain is that the base of the Republican party, specifically the religious right and social conservatives as well as even some fiscal conservatives may not come out in numbers as they did in '04.

Also, Obama will eat into the independents, centrists and moderates that McCain lives on as well. Obama has energized the Dems so he may get more of the Democratic base out to the polls than McCain will with the Republican base.

 

I think McCain can beat Obama readily. All he has to do is stay positive and say that he (McCain) is much more experienced and seasoned and that his ideas are much more centrist and pragmatic. Throw on some patriotic flagwaving and he's in.

 

Obama has virtually no experience and is the most left-leaning major party nominee ever. Obama beats himself just by being himself.

 

President John McCain. Folks can get used to that.

[Steve]

 

I think McCain can beat Obama readily.

 

No one told the people who were polled recently :smirk:

 

RCP Average 02/18 to 02/25 - 43.4% (McCain) v 47.5% (Obama) Obama +4.1%

[rogueyam]

 

No one told the people who were polled recently

 

I am of the opinion that almost all "polling" published more than a day or so before Election Day is in fact political propaganda.

 

I expect to see "polls" showing Obama "ahead" frequently from now until November.

 

On Election Day we will conduct the only poll that matters and I expect McCain to win that one.

[Torneyboy]

[Julian2]

Oliphant today

 

 

[Steve]

McCain may win but its just your gut feeling. If polls were useless, no one would use them. The Dems would come out for Obama. McCain can't say the same. A lot of first time voters or Dem voters that have not taken interest are coming out in record numbers. Past primaries indicate that with long waiting lines and the same are being said for Ohio and some precincts in Texas.

It can't be denied that Obama has a bigger grip on the centrists and independents than McCain. Ignoring that is just plain head in the sand business.

Frankly, I'm surprised at the numbers going for Obama. I thought they'd tell the polls one thing, to seem PC but in the privacy of the voting booth decide to go with someone else.

A shame, in hindisght, McCain couldn't have gotten the nod for the Republicans in '00.

[rogueyam]

1. McCain may win but its just your gut feeling.

 

2. If polls were useless, no one would use them.

 

3. The Dems would come out for Obama. McCain can't say the same.

 

4. A lot of first time voters or Dem voters that have not taken interest are coming out in record numbers. Past primaries indicate that with long waiting lines and the same are being said for Ohio and some precincts in Texas.

 

5. It can't be denied that Obama has a bigger grip on the centrists and independents than McCain. Ignoring that is just plain head in the sand business.

 

1. Gut feeling based on experience plus analysis.

 

2. Polls can be designed to objectively measure opinions (within some margin of error) or they can be designed to produce a desired result for use in swaying opinions.

 

3. We'll see on both sides. There are plenty of Dems who don't like extreme leftists, neophytes, Yankees, urbanites, Ivy Leaguers, lawyers, drug users, foreigners, Muslims, blacks. Conservative Republicans may warm to McCain, may accept whatever team he puts together as a package, or may be driven into the McCain camp by their opposition to Obama.

 

4. Obama is riding high at the moment, there is no doubt. He has youth appeal, excitement, money. His campaign has been energetic and well organized and certain people have responded with enthusiasm. He will need to keep it up for another eight long months in the face of relentless substantive criticism (and some not-so-substantive criticism too, of course). We'll see what he is made of.

 

5. I think you are just plain wrong on this point, c.s., and it is the core of McCain's strength. On the issues it is McCain who is famously independent and centrist and Obama who is the fringe candidate. This is why the most conservative Republicans dislike McCain but the most leftist Democrats love Obama. The National Journal rated Obama as the most liberal Senator, more liberal than Kennedy, Boxer, Feingold. The dude's a leftist. Abortion, guns, gays, taxes, national defense, judges, socialized medicine, everything. America has never elected someone like that as President. Think Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, Humphrey. Losers. Every one of them. The two Democrats elected President in the last forty years were centrist-acting Southern Governors (Bubba and Grits). Maybe you think that we are all of a sudden a whole new country with a whole new electorate but I don't see why that is so.

[Steve]

5. It can't be denied that Obama has a bigger grip on the centrists and independents than McCain. Ignoring that is just plain head in the sand business.

 

1. Gut feeling based on experience plus analysis.

 

2. Polls can be designed to objectively measure opinions (within some margin of error) or they can be designed to produce a desired result for use in swaying opinions.

 

5. I think you are just plain wrong on this point' date=' c.s., and it is the core of McCain's strength. On the issues it is McCain who is famously independent and centrist and Obama who is the fringe candidate. [/quote']

 

Well, unfortunatley, I can't use polling as evidence since we must rely on your...er...'gut feeling and experience' is it? The polling evidence in my previous post was a composite of SEVERAL polls. Unless all of them are biased, its fairly accurate.

Well, for the 99.9 percent of the rest of us and the ones who actually have a bit more experience in campaigns than you and I, Obama does well agaisnt McCain for independents as I've said.

 

...Obama, meanwhile, leads McCain by seven points -- 49 to 42 percent.

 

So why does Obama do better? Here's his answer:

 

"It's a choice between going into the general election with Republicans and independents already united against us, or running with a campaign that has already united Americans of all parties around the agenda for change. Now that's the choice," Obama has said.

 

Independents are crucial swing voters. They give McCain a solid lead over Clinton, according to the New York Times-CBS News poll. But independents abandon McCain for Obama.

 

If Obama's the alternative, McCain's support among independents drops from 52 percent to 36 percent...

 

Frankly, I think it will be a good race. And as I've said, McCain could win, and you may get your decisive victory that you predicted but its not a done deal. There was really no way anyone thought Clinton would be in the position she's in now. That if she was it would be Edwards, not Obama, that would be challenging her.

 

 

 

[Steve]

'Billary' pulls off the upset. The race is still alive. The Ohio margin of victory surprised me...and everyone. She had single a single digit lead heading into last night. Texas was expected to be close and ended up close.