BBC report

[Coss]

IMHO shows a balanced view.

 

Asean fiasco deepens Thai stalemate

Link

 

 

Four months ago, the telegenic, youthful leader of the Democrats, Thailand's oldest political party, emerged in triumph from parliament, having pulled off a remarkable coup.

 

After years in the political wilderness, Abhisit Vejjajiva had stitched together a winning coalition, wresting control of parliament from allies of Thaksin Shinawatra for the first time in eight years.

 

To prove he was up to the job - he had had little ministerial experience - he set out a number of challenges he promised to meet, among them holding the biannual Asean summit meetings, which it is Thailand's turn to host, but which had been delayed by political turmoil last year.

 

He must be regretting that pledge now.

 

It made the summits, normally unexciting gatherings, but which bring together the region's most important powers, an obvious target for the aggrieved supporters of Mr Thaksin.

 

Disrupting an Asean summit would bring them far greater international media coverage, and undermine Mr Abhisit's claim to have restored stability.

 

No surprise, then, that the red-shirted protesters from the UDD (United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship), the movement that has spearheaded the campaign against this government, chose to shift their rallies from Bangkok to this month's summit venue in the seaside resort of Pattaya.

 

Sticks and slingshots

 

As this was no surprise, the government had plenty of time to prepare - 8,000 police and soldiers were deployed to block all the routes leading to the Royal Cliff Hotel, where the summit was taking place.

 

Mr Abhisit staked his reputation on pulling off the summit

 

It seemed unlikely protesters would be able to break through unless they came in massive numbers - and the crowds that eventually descended on Pattaya were never more than several thousand.

 

Most Asean summits are tightly choreographed affairs and demonstrations - which are rare - never get anywhere near the venue.

 

Yet the UDD, armed with no more than sticks and the odd slingshot, managed to push their way through police and army lines repeatedly.

 

At times the atmosphere seemed almost jovial, with one group of navy officers laughing and taking pictures of the red-shirts as they swarmed through.

 

Even right outside the gates of the hotel itself, soldiers refused to use force, and the protesters were able to barge their way in, which led to the humiliating evacuation of several Asian leaders by helicopter.

 

How was this possible? The prime minister had staked his reputation on pulling off this summit. He was hosting Premier Wen Jiabao of China, and Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan, the powers everyone in this region looks up to.

 

Demoralised police

 

Mr Abhisit had to make a grovelling phone call to apologise to Premier Wen, who, despite diplomatically saying he understood the prime minister's actions, must have been thinking: "This could never happen in China."

 

The government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn says the failings of the security forces will be investigated.

 

Sympathy for the UDD within the ranks of the police, a force with strong ties to Mr Thaksin, who is a former police colonel, is common knowledge.

 

In any case the police were badly demoralised last year after trying - and failing - to contain the protests by the rival, yellow-shirted protesters from the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

 

But what explains the inaction of the military, a force thought to be staunchly loyal to this government?

 

Lack of experience in crowd control, perhaps. And there is a deep reluctance to risk bloodshed in civil disputes, ingrained in soldiers after their disastrous armed suppression of pro-democracy demonstrators back in 1992, that badly tarnished the military's reputation with the public.

 

But the red-shirts claim it is more than that.

 

"If you take off the uniforms of these people, what you find are the children of poor families," Jakrapob Penkair, one of the protest leaders told me. "So they are ideologically aligned with what the red-shirts are demanding."

 

'Grass-roots people'

 

The UDD has been very successful in instilling in its mainly poor and lower-middle class followers a sense that they are fighting not just for the rehabilitation of the exiled Mr Thaksin, but for social justice.

 

They use the language of class warfare, referring to themselves as "grass-roots people", fighting against a royalist elite that hogs the spoils of Thailand's development.

 

The PAD had its own successes with mass protests last year

 

It is an argument the Eton and Oxford-educated Mr Abhisit dismisses. Mr Thaksin, he says, must come back to Thailand and face the two-year jail sentence he received, in absentia last year, for abuses of power.

 

The UDD has now raised the stakes in this protracted dispute by accusing the most senior advisers to King Bhumibol Adulyadej of organising the coup that deposed Mr Thaksin in 2006.

 

The King himself remains popular, even revered, among opponents and supporters of Mr Thaksin alike, and his family are protected from criticism by strict lese majeste laws.

 

But by attacking his advisers the UDD is charging the powerful traditional elite that aligns itself closely with the monarchy of bending the rules to keep the populist Mr Thaksin out of office.

 

It is a potent and inflammatory message that feeds into resentment among poorer Thais over the wealth gap, and a more general anxiety felt here about the lack of clarity over the succession to King Bhumibol.

 

For the first four months of this year the red-shirts appeared to be a fading force, unable to ruffle the urbane Mr Abhisit, who brought calm and competent leadership back to a country with a battered economy badly in need of it.

 

Thaksin Shinawatra appeared to be a fading force as he wandered the world, unable to find a secure place of exile.

 

Over the past two weeks, though, he has been delivering fiery video addresses to his supporters, urging them to drive this government from office, as his allies were driven out last year.

 

So there was more than a hint of schadenfreude over the events in Pattaya from Jakrapob Penkair.

 

"I can't deny that we are pleased that they showed the disarray and fragmentation of the government forces, that Abhisit is not in control," he said.

 

They also show that Thailand's deep and complex political divide is still beyond the abilities of its politicians to resolve.

-------

[Flashermac]

<< having pulled off a remarkable coup. >>

 

Not the best choice if words by the writer.

 

<< Mr Thaksin, who is a former police colonel >>

 

Former half colonel ...

 

 

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

12 Apr 2009

 

 

Opinion: An impotent government lets anarchy reign

 

By Voranai Vanijaka

 

 

When a government is afraid, refuses to act, sits idly by and lets a mob terrorise a country, anarchy reigns while ordinary citizens suffer.

 

On Thursday, the Red Shirts held the city of Bangkok hostage. They blocked major roads and intersections, including Victory Monument, effectively paralysing the city. The government did nothing. Give them an inch, and they'll take a mile. Give them one city, and they'll take another.

 

On Saturday, the Red Shirts broke into the Royal Cliff Beach Resort in Pattaya, site of the Asean summit. They smashed through the glass doors of the convention hall and ran through the building, overturning tables, blowing horns, waving Thai flags and screaming "Abhisit get out!"

 

Asean leaders had to be evacuated by helicopter, the summit was cancelled and the Red Shirts cheered jubilantly.

 

Bear in mind, the location of the Royal Cliff Beach Resort is quite easily defendable against any siege, let alone a rabble. Situated high on a cliff, with only one main entrance, the only way the red shirts could have entered was through the sheer incompetence of the authorities.

 

In both cases, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government has failed to protect the citizens of Thailand, our persons and property. Failed to protect the integrity and sovereignty of his government. Failed to preserve the rule of law. Failed to protect the leaders of Asean countries.

 

A state of emergency was declared in Pattaya, but later lifted.

 

How could this happen? How could the government be so impotent and fail in its responsibilities to Thailand and its people?

 

The reason I am criticising the Abhisit government, rather than the Red Shirts, is this: In any country, any society, there will always be destructive, irrational mobs that have no regard for human rights or the rule of law. I don't expect a mob, roused by fiery propaganda, driven by anger, vengeance and rewards (acting at the behest of a puppet master), to behave any better than a destructive, irrational mob; a bunch of savages.

 

However, every society has a social contract between the government and its people. Therefore, I do expect the government to protect us, the people of Thailand, and preserve the law and integrity of our country against a terrorist mob. I expect the government to do its job.

 

When the Yellow Shirts took over Suvarnabhumi airport last year, the Somchai Wongsawat government was impotent in handling the terrorist act. Because of this it lost its credibility, integrity and right to rule. Politicians jumped ship, the opposition gained power and Thaksin Shinawatra's nominee parties, whether People Power or Puea Thai, lost power.

 

Will the Abhisit government go the way of Somchai's? To be honest, I hope not, for I fear the tyranny and delusion of a megalomaniac more so than anyone sitting in government right now.

 

But in this foulest of political chess games between Thaksin Shinawatra and the government so far, the government has been backed into a corner. What is PM Abhisit going to do?

 

As an export-led country that also relies heavily on tourism, it is understandable for a Thai government to fear the dreaded international condemnation. We are a nation obsessed with image - in everything we do we are mindful of what others will think of us. We are afraid that they will not spend money on us.

 

I understand, and to a certain extent sympathise, with PM Abhisit's predicament. He has tried his best to reach a peaceful conclusion, to go the way of appeasement. But how far can a man bend over backwards, until he realises that the entire country of Thailand is getting - - -. I'll let you, dear readers, fill in the blank.

 

I for one, as a citizen, am not willing to sacrifice precious hours just so the international community can keep thinking Thailand is a nice, smiley, peaceful country. We are not. Save the lies for tourist brochures. We are a country ruled by mobs, whether yellow or red.

 

A demonstration is an exercising of democratic rights, the right to stand up and march for your beliefs, an honourable action for any citizen of a democracy. But when a demonstration turns into an act of terrorism, anarchy reigns.

 

If a government bows to the passions of the mob, rendered impotent by terrorist tactics, then the government loses its credibility, and, the confidence in and legitimacy of its regime. Hence it loses its power to govern. Just ask former PM Somchai how that felt.

 

There are the 2009 London riots by protestors against the G20 summit. The 2008 Greek riots by disgruntled youths. In France in 2005 and 2007 the working class staged a series of riots and a state of emergency was declared. In 1999, the anti-globalisation movement marched on the World Trade Organisation Ministerial Conference in Seattle.

 

Demonstrations turned into riots and vandalism, laws were broken and chaos ensued. The police marched in and order was restored.

 

Those are evidence that in the three models of modern democracy (the US, the UK and France) and in the nation where democracy originated (Greece) it's a right and an honourable thing for the people to stage protests. But if a protest turns into terrorism, the government has the right to use force to restore order and preserve the rule of law. Otherwise anarchy reigns.

 

In 2008, the Yellow Shirts took over Government House and Parliament. The riots left three dead and many injured. There was excessive force and sheer incompetence in the use of exploding gas canisters by police. But however poorly planned and badly executed, it was the Somchai government's job to restore order, to preserve the rule of law, to protect the sovereignty and integrity of the state, and most importantly the rights and welfare of its citizens.

 

PM Abhisit, there's no need to be afraid of international condemnation. The international community knows well what the word "hypocrisy" means. There's a fine line between democracy and anarchy, and it is the duty of the government to preserve law and order, in the interests of its citizens.

 

As a citizen, it does not encourage my confidence in the government when the police can flag me down for any little reason (such as driving at night in a pub area), while at the same time, seeing the police helping block off traffic and providing all sorts of courtesy and convenience to the red or yellow movements in their attempts to terrorise citizens.

 

Do we not have a government to protect us? Are we the ones that have to protect ourselves? When citizens have to take the law into our own hands, is that not anarchy? If so, why then do we have you to govern us? Why then do we have this thing called democracy when the government allows a mob to terrorise the rights and welfare of the people?

 

I would like to ask both Thaksin and PM Abhisit: Have you forgotten about us, the people? PM Abhisit, our hope for the future of this country is in your hands. Please take this criticism to heart. It is written, not out of spite for your government, but out of love for this country. Please, do not fail us again.

 

 

[..]

 

 

Cheers,

SD

[Flashermac]

Stratfor's analysis:

 

<< The "Battle of Pattaya" as protesters are calling the incident is humiliating for the young Thai government -- and it is a far more consequential incident than the overrunning of the international airport in Bangkok in November by the yellow-shirt group because of the security threat to world leaders, including Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Abhisit assured world leaders that security would be more than sufficient in Pattaya after early warning signs to the contrary.

 

...

 

Now international opprobrium and domestic pressures mean that Abhisit will have to make a choice -- either to launch a security crackdown on the protesters and expedite prosecutions of their organizers, or to let his government fall in disgrace. There is also a question about whether the government will be able to capture or strike a deal with Thaksin (currently in exile) or whether Thaksin will continue to pull the strings of his proxy movement from afar to the detriment of Thai stability. All signs until now imply that Abhisit's government has the tacit support of the military, which has so far resisted the temptation to intervene as it did in the 2006 coup against Thaksin. But today will force an end to the indecision that has created a cycle of mass protest and political instability in Thailand. >>

 

 

http://www.stratfor.com/

 

 

 

 

[Faustian]

The police did indeed appear to be mildly sympathetic or unbothered...worrying.

 

I guess there is an argument for the police dealing with the crowd at Victory Monument, thereby reducing or eliminating the mob at Pattaya, which of course wasn't done and the mob was allowed to run riot here.

 

Too late now.

[Mekong]

I for one, as a citizen, am not willing to sacrifice precious hours just so the international community can keep thinking Thailand is a nice, smiley, peaceful country. We are not. Save the lies for tourist brochures. We are a country ruled by mobs, whether yellow or red.

 

 

That just about sums it up in one sentance!

 

Excellent article.

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

12 Apr 2009

 

 

What next for Abhisit after debacle?

PM DECLARES PROTESTERS ENEMY OF THE STATE AND VOWS TO TAKE ACTION

 

 

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva suffered a major embarassment after demonstrators stormed the Asean summit in Pattaya, forcing its postponement.

 

Asean leaders had to be evacuated from the hotel by helicopter, as Mr Abhisit declared a state of emergency in the area.

 

Later, he declared the protesters who took part were enemies of the state and vowed they would face legal action.

 

Red Shirt demonstrators from the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) forced their way through police and military lines to the venue at the Royal Cliff Beach Resort, disrupting the conference even before it started.

 

They stormed past military and police forces and broke into the hotel, prompting the evacuation of Asean leaders and officials who were staying there.

 

The leaders were airlifted to a military airbase nearby.

 

After they had left the country about six hours later, Mr Abhisit lifted the state of emergency.

 

[color:red]"On the country's loss today, whoever declares this as victory, I will treat them as national enemies. I will do whatever I can to make sure that these people can not stay above the law," he said.[/color]

 

Mr Abhisit said he had apologised to participants, who expressed understanding about the situation.

 

He said the UDD protest had seriously damaged the country.

 

The prime minister and senior cabinet members met late yesterday to consider legal measures against UDD leaders.

 

A government source said security authorities planned to arrest UDD leaders, and possibly charge them with national unrest and treason.

 

The authorities would gather evidence that covered the leaders' speeches and activities to back the allegations that they intended to overthrow the government.

 

Warrants for their arrests would be sought from the court, the source said.

 

The protesters gathered yesterday at the parking lot of a downtown mall in Pattaya before marching towards the Royal Cliff Beach Resort.

 

A small skirmish broke out after a group wearing blue T-shirts tried to stop UDD protesters with slingshots, fire crackers and smoke grenades.

 

At least 13 people were injured in the melee before the Blue Shirt demonstrators retreated and allowed the Red Shirt protesters passage to the meeting venue.

 

The Red Shirts, led by key UDD leader Arisman Pongruangrong, then pushed through police and military lines leading to the hotel and forced their way through the front entrance.

 

They smashed through the glass doors of the hotel and flooded into the conference hall.

 

After the summit cancellation, the Red Shirt protesters regrouped at Government House in Bangkok and declared victory.

 

"We have won. We have stopped them from holding a summit," said Jakrapob Penkair, another protest leader.

 

"But we have not achieved our goal yet. We will continue to protest in Bangkok until Abhisit resigns."

 

UDD leaders said if the government blocked the video broadcasts of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to his supporters, they would block all main roads in the country.

 

Mr Thaksin last night called the Red Shirt protesters, telling them the blue-clad men who clashed with them in Pattaya were police officers from Isaan who were paid 3,000 baht each.

 

He said the Blue Shirts were government authorities assigned to crack down on protesters.

 

"I was surprised to see them saluting senior policemen," said Thaksin.* If they [those policemen] were not their superiors, why should they salute?"

 

 

 

*How did he see them from where he is?

 

 

 

 

 

[drogon]

From my favorite BKK post journalist...

 

He got it right once more....

---------------------------------------------

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/14943/an-impotent-government-lets-anarchy-reign

 

PS: sorry already posted before

[playtheblues]

(not a reply)

 

The recent actions by the Red Shirts were acts of sabotage and treason. They, like the PAD overtake of the government building and the airports, should have been met by decisive force immediately and their instigators should be severly punished.

 

But as usual i cannot say anything without seemingly contradicting myself.

 

These actions are no doubt nurtured by the intensified propaganda by Thaksin. It's not the first time in history that a villain utilizes social discontent for his own ends. People need a leader in order to channel anger over social injustice into political action; without a charismatic leader nothing will happen. In Thaksin the unprivileged found that leader. If you eliminate Thaksin you eliminate the problem.

 

Or maybe not. I once quoted Jean-Paul Sartre as saying that the truth about oppression is known by the oppressed.

 

The truth about poverty in Thailand is not known by some yuppie economist or Prime minister, not by some political commentator at the Chulalongkorn University.

 

It is known by the poor themselves. And we will find them or their representatives - sponsored by the 500 baht or not - among the Red Shirts. Thaksin was smart enough to articulate this knowledge and use it for his populist policies. He let the genie out of the bottle and it cannot be put back in again. At the same time the strength of restraining factors such as buddhism, the supreme instititution, patron system etc is being modified for reasons which I will not discuss here.

 

This has been said in other words before, I know. And the conclusion is the same: it will not be enough to neutralize Thaksin, the elite must understand that the underlying forces beneath the Red shirts movement is something bigger than the street hooliganism that we are witnessing.

 

I cannot see much sign of this insight among the ranks of the ruling elite, except for some emulating-Thaksin-populism measures by the government.