zzzz Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 On 1/15/2021 at 9:00 AM, zzzz said: A US person average about 40 days in hospital during lifetime (https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb246-Geographic-Variation-Hospital-Stays.jsp) Covid patient average about 20 days in hospital (https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-8d57-11e586bd8a4f.html) With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used. Covid death rate is 3% Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime Medical error death rate for Covid patients = (With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used) * (Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime) = 5% Since medical error death rate for Covid patient (5%) is higher than Covid death rate (3%), an average US person with Covid will likely die from medical error than from Covid. I got a response to the above from a statistics forum that is interesting: “There is a threshold for being admitted. A person with an oxygen saturation level under 90% isn't going to have a choice to be admitted or not. You have to think about things as conditional probabilties. Probability of dying given you are sick enough to be admitted is the setting. Hospital treatments aren't that complex, maybe antiviral, anti-inflammatories, monoclonals, plasma, and supportive oxygen. The risks would come from individual risk factors (comorbidities, and immune responses [cytokine storms]) and nosocomial infections, but there are covid units so risk to other pathogens is low. The risk of medical error shouldn't be on the mind since these people would have no other option” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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