84 Dead in Pattani: "This is typical"

[Nervous_Dog]

STH - you ask why can't the Muslim in the South live peacfully. They where living peacfully, with the army there to work WITH them, a good situation that worked well, the locals had a strong genuine affection for the army, up to about 2001, when Thaksin decided to withdraw the army, and then replace with the police.

 

To quote a Thai mate 95% of police are corrupt - ok a bit extreme, but what happened in 2002 - 2003 was that instead of working ot solve problems, the police did the usual, took money, and people "Dissapeared".

 

The muslims lost faith in the police and stopped working with them, so they had no where to go.

 

The government had no longer intelligence or liason people in place,

 

So STH - the Southeners where living farily peacfully, but the police agiatatedd them -a two way street.

 

As the paper today says, not all at the demo where Muslim! Budhists there too! And not nutters from bangkok, but locals!

 

And many muslim leaders also condemmed the demonstration, and said, if you attack a ploice station, of course there is trouble, that was when 6 had died.

 

If not for khunying porntip and her funky hair, no one would even know that 78 had died SHE spilled the beans, and now,

 

Nothing but trouble ahead.

 

A situation that WAS contained and managable was inflamedd by people with thought proccess similar to the rants of yours and Thai3.

 

DOG

[Flashermac]

Thailand: Increasing Violence and Thaksin's Catch-22

 

Summary

 

Recent violence in southern Thailand will have serious repercussions for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as he prepares for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations November summit in Laos. The renewed unrest, which began days after 78 Muslim men died while in Thai army custody following riots in Narathiwat province, could escalate into an Islamist insurgency and affect Thailand's position in the region.

 

Analysis

 

On Oct. 25, 78 Muslim men died while in Thai army custody after being arrested following a protest in the southern province of Narathiwat. The men were among 1,300 detainees stuffed into Thai army trucks to be driven to the army base at Pattani. During the transfer, the Thai government says, the 78 men suffocated. Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra initially attributed their deaths to their weakened condition resulting from fasting for Ramadan, telling reporters, "It is normal that their bodies could not handle it. It is not about someone attacking them." The deaths incensed the Muslim population of the area, which has been the scene of anti-government violence several times this year.

 

Since the deaths, violence has flared up again in southern Thailand. On Oct. 28 in Songkhla province, a retired policeman was gunned down while opening his grocery store. Later, a 10-pound fertilizer bomb was defused in a marketplace in Narathiwat, and another one exploded in the border town of Sungai Kolok, killing a Malaysian tourist and injuring 29 others. The Pattani United Liberation Organization -- an on-again, off-again Islamist separatist group claiming responsibility for much of the violence in southern Thailand -- has threatened to retaliate against Thailand's Buddhist-majority government by using suicide attacks to burn Bangkok "to the ground."

 

Thaksin will be forced to act to quell the unrest, especially if the violence targets Thailand's tourist industry -- and none of his options will strengthen Thailand's position as a regional or international player.

 

The attack in Sungai Kolok is significant because it targeted Thailand's $8 billion tourism industry, which generates 6 percent of the country's gross domestic product. Economists expect the impact to be limited to tourist towns in the south, with the big resort islands not being seriously affected. That could change, however, if the ethnic Malay separatist group Bersatu makes good on its recent threat to attack the upscale resorts of Phuket, Krabi and Phang Nga. Thailand will take any attack against its tourism industry seriously.

 

Not only could the renewed violence hurt Thailand's economy, but it also could not have come at a worse time for Thaksin. This year's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit will be held in Vientiane, Laos, on Nov. 29, and Thaksin probably will be unable to take a strong role with unrest brewing in his country.

 

Thaksin has two options for dealing with the violence.

 

First, he could act defensively and try to quiet the unrest before it can gather more momentum. This could be done by firing some regional officials and army commanders involved in the Oct. 25 incident and admitting that Thai security forces acted excessively. Showing a weak hand, however, could encourage elements wanting to see more violence and instability in Thailand's south.

 

The other option is to crack down hard on the violence before it can expand. This would involve arrests and military action, certainly accompanied by more deaths and subsequent retaliations. However, taking the offensive might result in a backlash from southern Thailand's Muslim population. Non-militant Muslim groups in southern Thailand, such as the Islamic Society of Southern Thailand, long have complained of brutal and excessive treatment at the hands of Thai security forces. In January, a crackdown began after militants attacked a Thai army base, killing four soldiers and seizing weapons. In April 2004, Thai forces stormed a Mosque in Pattani, killing 32 people. The government has since admitted it acted excessively.

 

Whichever action Thaksin chooses, the likely effects -- either simmering ethnic violence or the aftermath of a violent crackdown -- will weaken his standing at the ASEAN summit.

 

If Thaksin's government cannot restore law and order to the region before he goes to Vientiane, the leadership of ASEAN could be up for grabs. Instability from religious/ethnic violence and an economy weakened by a damaged tourist industry would leave Thaksin hard pressed to make a case for Thailand abroad, especially if there are bloody, spectacular attacks against tourists in his country. With a large popular mandate behind him, newly elected Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono could use the summit as an opportunity to assert a new leadership role in the region for his country.

 

If an insurgency begins and attracts the attention of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) or al Qaeda, Thaksin will want to move closer to the United States for assistance. He already has claimed that the Muslim-dominated southern provinces are a breeding ground for militants, particularly JI, and he would need U.S. assistance to combat the insurgency there.

 

Indonesia already has indicated its wishes to build strong ties with theWest, particularly regarding security. If Thaksin -- motivated by strengthening Islamist militancy and a need for military assistance -- makes a similar decision, Thailand would be yet another Southeast Asian player in the United States' war on terrorism.

 

© 2004 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.

 

http://www.stratfor.com

[Guest]

What occurred is beyond human decency. Still, if I were a protester in the middle of a rally that was clearly intended to be provocative, I would hardly be surprised that something like this happened, especially in a Third World country.

[jitagawn]

"Taksin did a good job in the drug war, the dead don't deal. "

 

Well what about all of the citizens that died without a f---- trail??

Why are daft conservatives so easy to have other people die for their causes.

[jitagawn]

Hitler was addcited to Cocaine as well but so was Sherlock Homes ::

[Sukhumvit]

Sherlock Holmes was a fictional character.

JJ Cale sang a song about cocaine.

Hope that helps.

[Fidel]

Check out the views of this Thai poster from from Samutprakan on 2bangkok.com's forum:

Jai Dee for Thais only!

 

[color:"green"]

This is one main reason I left Pantip.com forever!!

 

A prominent monk wrote an article about violent thinking of today's Thais few days just before the incident.

 

Are we too narrowed minded, mean, uncaring, having malevolent views to anyone who is just different?

 

If you guys can read Thais, you feel disheartened!!

 

Justified killing!! most Thais seem to agree. So, they deserved it!! We could have gone for more!!

 

Or those in webboards just represent minority of the society.

 

Personally, I think Thai culture itself plays important role in this!! Considering being Thais in most people's point of views. Anyone who cannot fit in Thainess will be driven away.

 

Hilltribes and Muslims are examples. Plus foreign born residents (Vietnamese, Burmese, and minorities)

 

They are not one of us. We do not need to be Jai Dee. Jai Dee is for us only.

 

I remembered an excuse of an ex governor (who?) about students killed at Thammasat on Oct 6, 1976. They were VC!!

 

Someone fired rifles from a building nearby, we captured one and he could not speak Thai!!

 

God Army did not surrender, so they faced the consequences!! (with bullet holes on their heads .... shot in close range!)

 

Nobody cried, nobody cared since they were not one of us.

 

It is a frauded logic and it is real horror much more than I read about bad engineering practices in Thailand.

 

I do not khow. I hope we will have a better way than resort violence counter violence.

 

 

[/color]

Actually, reading this again, I'm not sure if the guy supports actions against "non-Thais" or the opposite..

[Guest]

what i can read from it he describes a reality, and does not agree at all with the violence.

 

 

i have spoken with many thai friends of the incident, and most are absolutely shocked and very angry of what happened. never heard such harsh words with whom they have desribed thaksin.

[Fidel]

Yeah, I agree that he seems to be just pointing out the reality of the attitude of many Thais towards non-Thais...

 

I hope regular Thais will be able to see through all of Mr T's bullshit propaganda..

[chuckwoww]

Fear and xenophobia are powerful forces. "They" are out to get us. "They" are the enemy. It seems to be the dominant theme these days. Why wouldn't it be the same in Thailand?