Call off July trip ?????

[WorldFun]

Interesting thread out of an OP who was not sure to cancel his TH trip die to coup concerns? :-)

 

Firstly don't trust what 'Samak' says he's kinda not in a position to say whether there's a risk a not. All he can/should do is resign...

 

Next Drogon like you I was at Koh Chang (kaibei beach) last trip did we meet???

I noticed nothing from staff, resort managers or anyone, but of course noticed the TV went all 'weird' all of sudden (yeah can't be out & about all the time even on fancy tropical islands!).

 

Now I'm living here & I think that what other residents has said of 'anything' can happen, but most likely there nothing you can plan for. A tsunami or other such events are far more disruptive & even in the worst case scenario I can not see international air travel being affected in any way not even a single day or hour.

 

But pls as already said the place is already too crowded do us all a favor & cancel

 

So what was the question again? Ah sure Russia will be champions (another democrazy)

 

Interesting SG & TH's 'paradise' roles we're reversed some 40 years back so as for today I'd say my likings of them both is 50/50 having their own things going for & against them.

 

It's easy to clean up a city/country if you got money so this explains why BKK don't feature the same pedestrian walking comforts as say SG or Tokyo! Go figure

[Gadfly]

Interesting thread out of an OP who was not sure to cancel his TH trip die to coup concerns? :-)

 

Yes, that an comparing the political systems around the world.

 

It's not the question the OP asked, but I think the most interesting question is this: how do the Thai elites get Thailand out of this impasse?

 

A coup followed by a return to democracy where someone other than TRT cronies are elected doesn't see likely. It did not work last time. Why would it work this time?

 

If there is a coup, at best we get a dysfunctional interim militairy government. The last one tried to make the FBA stricter, was responsible for the BOT fiasco, and was responsible for some of the more zany laws that are coming into force now that none of the elected parties wanted. And then, after they leave, TRT proxies are re-elected, and we have another round of demonstrations. That doesn't seem particularly attractiv to me.

 

So we have to look for alternatives. At the other end of the coup option spectrum, we get a group that decides to "do it right" this time, which means they will try to stay in power longer, grab more power, ignore criticism and take even more serious measures to turn the clock back.

 

I just don't think this will be acceptable to Thais in 2008. Hell, it wasn't acceptable in the early 90s, and it will be less acceptable now.

 

The pro-democracy elements in Thai society are savvy enough to have worked this out for themselves. I think they'll see where another coup is likely headed. And notice: no one is talking fondly now about the last coup now.

 

It's true that other countries have flawed democracies, but this is not a morality play and those flaws are really irrelevant. It's a question of how those other countries (major investors in or markets for Thailand), and investors from those countries, react when they see tanks rolling in the streets again in Bangkok on CNN, BBC, etc. And if it turns violent , it can only get worse, and the liklihood of it being violent this time (if it happens) seems higher to me.

 

If it doesn't happen, I guess we just muddle along, which may not be so bad when you consider the alternatives. Or maybe Samak will step down, and the opposition (meaning the Democrats) will form a government under threat of militairy intervention - this doesn't even seem democractic and doesn't seem likely. Who knows.

 

As for business travel, I wouldn't worry about it in the short term. In the longer run, if you are making business trips to visit operations in Thailand, it may be an issue since there may be relatively less of them after round two.

[kamui]

As for my thoughts on democratic countries' date=' the ONLY mature democratic country outside of the West is Japan.[/quote']

ok then! let's bring democracy to all those underdevelopped immature countries in Asia..like GWB brought mercifully democracy to Afghanistan and Iraq!

 

Calling Japan a mature democracy is not exactly correct. I won't go into the details, but Japan is ruled by the same party _since fifty years_ (with a short interruption of only 1-2 years) and this does not fit at all into our definition of democracy. The problem is that there is no other definition for the Japanese political system available.

 

[Hardy641]

I think we all know that the prefect democracy does not exist and is just an ideal.

 

Investors and business however are more concerned about stability. In this regard Japan is definitely ideal (same party in charge for 50 years). Same accounts for Singapore, Malaysia and even China and Vietnam. Investors know the rules and adopt.

 

Thailand however, always had frequently changing (Thaksin has been the first PM who completed the 4 year term ever!!) coalition governments who rather served their sponsors than the public. Such frequent changes also bring along frequent changes in regulations and laws as well as these are applied. Exactly leading to the current situation that nobody really knows all paragraphs of the laws and even if, it is impossible to know whether they are enforced or there some ways (gray area) around them. Frequent changes plus a missing reliable legal platform are poison for every investor!

 

To answer the OP question, there is no risk to visit Thailand for a short biz trip. However, I would think more than twice whether to invest in Thailand under the given circumstance.

 

[CTO]

Drogon - you shouldn't leave Taiwan out - it's evolution from a KMT dictatorship to a very real democracy is important.

 

Comparing Thailand and Singapore is very difficult - it's easy to stage manage electorates in a city state - much harder in a country with a very large population.

 

Interesting no one is claiming Malaysia - which has been fairly successful at a democracy - must be the fear of Islam.

 

 

[Flashermac]

<< which has been fairly successful at a democracy >>

 

 

Umm ... yeah, right. Just throw the opposition in jail.

 

 

[drogon]

CTO: I left Taiwan as the KMT families move there with weapons and wealth..

-> they did not have to build their wealth from almost nothing

 

(Although I admit that they built a great country)

 

Thailand, Singapore, HK -> after WW2 most Chinese families had to rebuild/build from almost nothing.

 

 

[WorldFun]

Possible scenarios out of current 'deadlock' & building tensions:

 

a) another round of coup & interim 'government'.

samak stays (I'm afraid he insists!) on becoming an even greater joke, but muddles along with the 'mai pen rai' attitude. basicly stayus quo. no progress, no major setback & Thaksin continuing in the background (yes he wont be convicted & he wont be allowed to change the Man.U. logo either!).

 

Cheers!

[Gadfly]

For business and investors, I would select option B. The current government doesn't seem to meddle much in the private sector (most of the meddling, new laws and regulations were the work of the last government) and they want to attract foreign investment. In my opinion, the former is more important: don't meddle to much, and let the private sector respond to changes in the world economy and sort matters out as best the can. Mistakes will be made, but that is far better than we saw with the last government's attempts to 'manage' the economy.

[bibblies]

I would be curious to hear explanations as to why Singapore, HK,evolved so differently from Thailand?

(I leave Taiwan apart)

 

Could it be due to a different Chinese social emigration?

 

Trust a French-speaking continental European to miss the obvious answer...

 

The obvious answer is because Singapore and HK were former British colonies and reaped the benefit of solid institutions, the rule of law, trust in upholding of the law, etc.