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The Covid-19 thread


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Thailand.  I express sadness for the folk who live in LOS.


The government of Gen Prayut Chan-ocha has failed its people with its incompetent handling of COVID-19 pandemic and it’s clear for all to see. Death rate kept soaring to a new high this week only to be broken anew repeatedly with 91 deaths reported on Saturday, highest since the outbreak began early last year, and 9,326 new daily infections reported on the same day. The government’s COVID-19 Centre admits the number of newly infected could rise to 10,000 per day by next week. Only 12 per cent of the population has received its first vaccine jab and less than 5 per cent got two. 

To add insult to injury, as hospital beds, particularly in Metropolitan Bangkok reached its capacities, news and images of coronavirus patients waiting to be cared for or put at ad hoc semi-al fresco ward is heart wrenching. Some, particularly the poor with no connections, died at home waiting. A few committed suicides due to economic crisis-induced despair.

Many more working-class people, some elderly, queue up and camp out like beggars amidst rain overnight this week to simply get tested as they become anxious or in need of COVID-19 test certificate in order to apply for a job. With tens of thousands more to become unemployed in the weeks and months ahead due to the new semi-lockdown in Metropolitan Bangkok starting Monday, Thailand would be lucky if its economy doesn’t contract this year.   

The inoculation process, originally targeted at 500,000 jabs per day has fallen far short of that for weeks with 300,000 jabs on most weekdays and much lower during weekends. The government has also failed to secure mRNA vaccines in time with October being the earliest possible arrival  month and many have to do with less-effective make from Sinovac that will hardly ensure herd immunity and little protectionagainstDelta variant. Many of the daily deaths and infections are thus unnecessarily high due to the government’s incompetence, lack of Plan B,  Plan C, and its failure to explain why they placed so much bet and reliance on just Sinovac and Oxford-AstraZeneca – the latter failed to deliver 10 million doses per month as originally expected.

The call for Prayut to resign is getting louder by day but Thailand is in a Catch 22 situation. In a clear signal that he will not resign, Prayut said Friday that he will forgo three months of his salaries, worth a combined 370,000+ baht, to help fund the government’s battles against coronavirus, an attic that elicited more anger than sympathy.  The gesture will not bring back the dead because they were not vaccinated in time or help those who lost their jobs in any significant manner. It’s just a theatrical act prolonging Prayut’s stay in power for at least three months.  

Even if Prayut resigns, and not many are betting on that, there seems no visible competent alternative and the ruling parties combined with the junta-appointed senate and the current constitution means they will continue to be in control. No general elections can take place without a major risk of significantly exacerbating the pandemic.

A major anti-government protest is called for next Sunday, Jul 18 by co-leader Arnon Nampa. That’s also a risky business and could lead to more infections. If the protest becomes a new cluster of infections, the movement would be discredited and branded as reckless and irresponsible. But even if they could muster tens of thousands onto  the streets of Bangkok next Sunday, there’s no guarantee that Prayut will resign.

Anti-government groups will need to convince others who were previously indifferent to Prayut to send a clear message that Prayut must go. That goal is harder to achieve, easier said than done partly as the core of the anti-government movement has become very virulent verbally. The use of expletives, hate speech and even dehumanizing speech against Prayut and supporters of the regime has become fair game for many anti-government protest leaders. This is not winning more converts and in fact eliciting some strong counter-reactions from the pro-Prayut camp and conservatives while some of those who remain undecided are put off by the toxic political environment.

This means Thailand will likely have to suffer more infections, loss of lives and face absolute economic ruin before any significant political change will likely occur. I hope we do not need to become utterly destitute and the country in ruin before positive change can be achieved, for that would be a total tragedy for Thailand.


With a risk of this being seen, as an attempt at a pithy summation, I offer the following:

This is what happens when greedy politicians/salesmen/grifters/bullies/thieves, set about diverting, vast amounts of wealth from, the people who generate said wealth and arguably, should be the first to benefit from it.

The reason that Thailand hasn't fared as well as expected, in fighting the Covid pandemic or getting the population vaccinated sufficiently, is the same reason, as almost everywhere. Too many people, are trying to shovel the money used, for such relief, into their own personal wheel barrows.


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A note on the possibility of getting a 3rd shot of the Pfizer vaccine.

The science ain't in, on specifically what happens with "delta" and forthcoming variants/mutations with the current vaccines and their dosages.

If a 3rd shot would increase my resistance to infection/illness from say 95 to 97%, I'll take it, yes please.

It may be that Pfizer is attempting a 50% sales increase.

I'll be interested to see the outcome of the Anthony Fauci meeting on this topic happening shortly/now.


I just saw this -Thailand - "AstraZeneca approved as third “booster” shot and as second dose after Sinovac"

this smacks of desperation

You want red curry and rice? Here, have some yellow curry and noodles, effectively the same thing...

Nothing to do with this of course - The Thai government held the official ceremony July 12 to receive 1,053,090 doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine donated by the government of Japan to help fight the spread of COVID-19.



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The reason why Astra Zeneca failed to supply 10 Million doses per month as expected is because the Thai Government has still not placed the contract for 10 Million doses per month.

Anyone who has dealt with Government agencies in Thailand will be aware of incessant paperwork, getting bounced from one department to another, the need for brown envelopes to grease the wheels and so on, well the very same thing is taking place in the procurement process of vaccines including inter departmental finger pointing, people delaying signatures to look important (I.e. waiting for the envelope) and so on, and General Pinocchio is allowing this to happen.

On Saturday Bumrungrad opened registration for Moderna Vaccine, lines opened at 09:00 by 09:01 fully booked, people are sick of this Sinovac crap they are being fobbed off with. They are talking about a Third dose of Pfizer for Health Workers who have had 2 doses of Sinovac, those against it say it will send out the wrong signals that Sinovac is ineffective where as the whole nation knows it is ineffective.

I mentioned a couple of weeks back about the anti government sentiment being on the rise over here, now mainstream media are reporting such, I also said when the UK comes out of lockdown if people die the PM gets sacked, in Thailand if people die the PM just locks up protesters. 

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TDRI report blames government blunders for worsening Covid situation

The government’s errors in evaluating the situation and flawed decision-making is responsible for the latest Covid-19 wave and the worsening of the pandemic situation, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) said in a recently published report.

The TDRI was critiquing the performance of the Prayut Chan-o-cha government in the middle of its second term with focus on containing the outbreak and vaccine management.

The TDRI said that though Thailand was doing great in controlling the outbreak in the first wave (before December 2020), it had made some glaring blunders subsequently, which was responsible for the current situation.

Full Article. https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003177  

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The Public Health Ministry has decided to start administering AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine as a second dose to those who had received a Sinovac jab for their first shot, in what is seen as a major shift in the government's vaccination policy.

Full Article https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2147611/govt-shifts-stance-on-sinovac

Also now on BBC.   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57801251  

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That Covid19-thing is a never ending tragedy as long as not maybe 80 % of all people received 2 shots or possibly 3. The choice until that has been achieved is either to kill the economy or your people. The Netherlands waived all restrictions 2 weeks ago and now numbers are exploding. The same will happen in the UK after July 19th. Many men seem to think that low numbers mean the virus is dead but it just sits behind the tree and waits for a victim. I do not follow the Thai tourist opening schemes any more, pure phantasies. Instead of buying Chinese submarines the Thai government should buy trainloads of their Sinovac vaccines, it is good enough to block off the worst as long as they cannot get anything better in volume.

People who insist on not being vaccinated should be paying for hospital treatment themselves  if they catch the Covid. Generally speaking, too many idiots everywhere.

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"the Thai government should buy trainloads of their Sinovac vaccines, it is good enough to block off the worst as long as they cannot get anything better in volume."

Unfortunately this doesn't seem to be the case. Effective protection drops by 50% every 40 days or so apparently, meaning that it is pretty much useless in a short amount of time.
Also several medical personnel who received 2 doses of Sinovac have still gotten Covid, with one nurse dying of it.

>People who insist on not being vaccinated should be paying for hospital treatment themselves  if they catch the Covid. Generally speaking, too many idiots everywhere.

Totally agree with this!


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Sir, if with utmost respect I may once again clarify what these percentage-numbers could mean:

" If a vaccine’s efficacy rate is 80% it doesn’t mean 20 out of every 100 people who get the jab will get a symptomatic case of Covid-19. Instead it means there will be 80% fewer such cases compared with the control group. So if , say, 1% of a control group of 1,000 unvaccinated people develops Covid-19 over a certain number of months, that means 10 people will get ill. With an efficacy rate of 80%, only 2 people should get sick."

Just for the record, the BuBi- mantra. Somebody might put it on my gravestone.

There is a billion Covid-studies on the market which try to explain all sort of things. Before one looks at the result one should carefully read what the study intends to find out based on what. Again, just for the record.

And as we are talking, the following adds some details:

" Why did the rate drop?

A vaccine efficacy's rate is calculated by comparing the number of COVID-19 infections among trial volunteers who received the vaccine versus the cases among volunteers in the placebo group. In the Brazil trial, 85 participants injected with Sinovac's vaccine developed COVID-19 infections compared to 167 who developed infections in the placebo group, creating an efficacy rate of just above 50%.

At Tuesday’s press conference, Palácios said Sinovac’s relatively low efficacy rate of 50% was due to its more rigorous standard for what counts as an infection among trial volunteers. The Butantan Institute said it included six types of cases in its results: asymptomatic, very mild, mild, two levels of moderate, and severe. (The Brazilian authorities stressed that the public should focus on the vaccine's 100% efficacy in protecting against severe cases of COVID-19.) Western vaccine makers generally included only mild, moderate, and severe categories, and companies like Pfizer are doing additional studies to see if the vaccine will prevent asymptomatic cases. "

( Stolen from FORTUNE )

As to the 2 persons getting an infection after Sinovac and one more dying: vaccination does not give 100 protection, see above. Further it would have to be investigated why No 3 died. A businessfriend of mine sadly died from the virus these days and months after 2 shots Biontec. Means what?

No easy.


Based on these facts(?) the Sino-something should still contribute to protection from this virus. In particular prevent the worst cases.





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