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High Tourist Season for Thailand - how bad will it get?


Tiger Moth

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SD,

 

We know why. Face. Stubborn pride and obstinency. TRT/PPP/PT. They feel they are the elected party (because they still are - legally) and will never allow PAD to dictate to them. And the opposite side seems to think they can do whatever they want to stop the Taksinites from ever forming a party coalition with a PM that they feel is against their desires. Neither side will budge, no one is being diplomatic and conciliatory and both will not give an inch. This is what is so bad about it, and why I feel it will come to a bad end one day. There seem to be no cool heads willing to sit and talk it through and find a compromise. Lots of egos clashing here. And the Dems just sit on the sideline hoping their man Abhisit gets the nod (I like Abhisit, but feel he is a political pussy really with no nads). Taksin is a head case who no longer gives a fuck about anything but revenge. Sondhi is the same. Both are totally committed to getting their revenge and winning at any cost. Meanwhile, back at the Mango and the moo bahn people will suffer and the country will become an international tourist industry pariah. This is on the news quite a bit.

 

Those who know Thailand, have family members here, business here, flight transits here, holiday here, are watching. I get concerned calls and e-mails all the time now from relatives and friends. It is on the international news on the big US networks and cable news and a lot of people see it, and no one now, except the punters who know it isn't as bad for a tourist as others think (if you can get a flight in and out when you want to), will think twice about coming here since the occupation of the airports by PAD. And even many punters will shy away now, as most on holiday do need to be able to get back to their jobs within a reasonable time once their holiday is over.

 

If this isn't settled soon, if the PAD tries to take the airports again and close them down, if the violence escalates, if the red shirts finally get into it totally and fight back, I think you can say goodbye to Thailand having much of a tourist industry in 2009. A lot of 'ifs' but it is very easy to see these things happening in the next month or so. This could not have happened at a worse time for Thailand's economy with the global recession. If it continues the country is pretty much fucked for a while, and the slowdown in the economy will be that much worse and any recovery will take that much longer.

 

But hey, no skin off my nose. I am not leaving or flying for a while. The baht is falling and the dollar is rising. It really won't affect me much or my family. The affects are not noticable up here in Surin. If it gets really bad (civil war) I can be at the border crossing with my family, passports in hand, within an hour (Chong Chum) and hole up in a suite in one of the two newer casino/hotels just over the border and wait it out, or head overland to Phnom Penh and rent an apartment for a while if need be. It's the Thais that will suffer from all this, not us mainly.

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Guest lazyphil

oh you want them to be appeasers, a non taksin cronie. look what happened when mc cain tried to appease hockey mums, it all went south for the party! :)

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SD, whilst I think your right in many cases and many tourists will assume its all over. A lot will have heard the warnings on coverage (in the UK at least) that there is the potential for a lot of trouble ahead.

Personally I'm not that worried and would even move back to Bangkok again if the chance arose. But at the moment as far as trips back go its mainly the crummie state of the £ thats keepng me away :(

Simie.

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As Cent points out, this shit has hit the major news outlets in middle America. The average American tourist doesn't know PAD from their PUD or what these people are protesting, they simply see a group of people who have taken over 2 major airports and that is frightening to them.

 

Also the news doesn't devote a lot of time to this....They simply show video of a couple screaming Thais who look deranged, while the voiceover states that the airport was overrun by protesters, tourists are stranded and cant get home, people were killed by grenades, etc.

 

I've had people calling me that past couple days asking if I'm in Thailand or warning me not to go because "its very unsafe their and people are getting killed".

 

Granted, Americans probably make up a small percentage of overall tourism in LOS but this IMHO will have a long term negative effect.

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Having said that, I think there are many loyal, resilient tourists from Scandinavia and even Germany, not to mention the drunken Brits who won't even be aware the whole thing happened, as long as airline seats are cheap enough. :)

 

I can only speak for my part of Scandia and it has been all over the media during the last week or so. Potential travellers are very well aware of the implications.

We have never been put off by the things going on in Thailand during the last decade or so and never let that deter us from visiting.

But this time, we shall not as planned be leaving on the 14th as we cannot be arsed to be stuck in Bkk or in a clash between opposing parties.

So Vietnam it is. Hope they serve somtam there too or the missus will be pissed off.

 

cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Cent and Tiger make very good points.

 

From an external objective point of view, I think that airports may be less a likely target next time around, as I think even PAD may have realised they could have pushed good will too far. Note the relative good care they took of the place. They may choose to do rail or ports next time.

 

but...

 

TIT

 

Cheers

 

Coss

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